Bitcoin recently made a “Golden Cross” where the 50-day moving average closed above the 200-day moving average, a positive development for traders who see it as a very bullish indicator. However, the benchmark cryptocurrency fell sharply right after forming the bullish crossover.
The bitcoin-to-dollar exchange rate slipped below both the 50- and 200-DMA earlier this week, going against the perceived upside sentiment that was led by the formation. The pair on Friday established a weekly low at $8,428.80. At its week-to-date high, it was trading at $10,030 on US crypto exchange Coinbase.
Bitcoin fell into a sell trap shortly after investors started losing faith in global stocks and commodities. Sitting atop attractive profits, the cryptocurrency became an attractive asset among people who were looking to generate cash. They sold anything for bid and ran under the safety of whatever they perceived was their haven.
Even Gold, often treated as an outdated version of a digital bitcoin, slipped huge ahead of closing the week. Investors sold it for hard cash, similar to how they did during the 2008 financial crisis.
Despite today's decline, the price of is still up over 6.5% so far this year. Yet the GDX, an index of gold mining stocks is down almost 10%. Traders still don't get it. Gold is headed much higher, as are the earnings & reserve values of companies that mine it. Buy the dip!
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff)
Little Predictive Power
Bitcoin’s downside moves showed that investors, in general, did not treat the Golden Cross as a signal to enter the market. The trend also presented that the indicator has little predictive power against severe macroeconomic fundamentals. Sometimes, the prices go up, and sometimes, they go down.
But taking cues from the Dow Jones, a US index that formed the Cross in 2019 for the first time in three years, one can notice that they tend to give consistently positive results after six months or so. The Dow had surged by more than 14 percent as of February 12, 2020, after making the Golden Cross on March 19 last year.
The super-bullish technical indicator failed nevertheless, hit by the spreading of the Coronavirus in and outside China. Even the Dow fell below its own Golden Cross in the latest sell-off, showing how investors just wanted liquidity. Bitcoin, which had surged by more than 40 percent before the plunge, stood no chance.
Hopeful Tomorrow for Bitcoin
On Friday, the by assuring investors that “the fundamentals of the US economy remain strong.” Nevertheless, the chairman Jerome Powell also said that they would “ act as appropriate to support the economy.”
“The coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook,” he stated.
The statements came at the time when the market clamored for the Fed to introduce fresh rate cuts. Unlike the European Central Bank, whose dovish policies have pushed the rates way below zero, the Fed still has scope to trim its own. They are currently 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent.
Easy borrowing could give investors more money to support their portfolios. Some part of that cash could also reach bitcoin, leading it to continue the uptrend above the Golden Cross, especially in the wake of its own supply rate cut in May 2020.