Bitcoin is known for its explosive price movements — both bullish and bearish. However, Relative Strength Index data suggests the top cryptocurrency by market cap has gone the longest stretch ever without a bullish impulse.
Just how long has it been since the last time BTCUSD was fully bullish? And how does this data compare to past bear markets?
Reliving The Thrill Of Past Bitcoin Bull Markets
Bitcoin price is retesting $30,000 per coin and bulls are hoping it holds. If it does, yet another higher high could provide further confirmation to onlookers that an uptrend is forming.
By definition, an uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows — precisely the pattern in BTCUSD since the November 2022 low. But despite this pattern, the crypto market has yet to see a true bull run.
The last major bull market began in late 2020. Prior to that, Bitcoin had a short-lived, 300% rally in 2019. Two years before that in 2017, Bitcoin spent the entire year in a bullish market.
This time around, a true bullish impulse is nowhere in sight, and barely in the rear view mirror at this point. It’s been so long since the last bull run, it has now reached the longest stretch ever according to the Relative Strength Index.
It’s been a long time since bulls had a turn |
Why The Stampede Is Waiting For An Overbought RSI
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum measuring tool, which tells an investor if the asset is overbought or oversold. Unlike other assets, the speculative nature of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies causes them to remain overbought for longer than normal.
When this occurs, FOMO fuels a fast and furious price movement higher. Using overbought RSI signals on the weekly BTCUSD chart as a gauge of impulsive behavior, the crypto market has been without a bull market for 973 days.
When compared to past phases of bearishness and boredom, only the 2014 and 2015 bear market comes close. What was once considered the worst bear market on record lasted 959 days before becoming fully overbought on the weekly timeframe.
The bull run that followed made Bitcoin a household name and put crypto on the map. Could such a lengthy period of pain and suffering ultimately lead to another epic price increase? For that to happen, BTCUSD must first reach overbought levels on the one week RSI. But considering how long it has been, time is likely ticking away for bears.
We are currently in the longest stretch historically without a bullish impulse, and yet so many still don’t think there is any chance of another one coming just yet
Impulses appear when the weekly RSI reaches overbought
— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC)