Bitcoin has been trading around its current levels for several days, leading to an apparent shift in sentiment across the crypto market. As BTC’s price trend to the upside after the U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, there seems to be an increase in optimistic on the crypto market.
In the short term, our Editorial Director Tony Spilotro has identified a TD Sequential buy signal on the 12-hour chart. As seen below, he highlighted a 13-buy setup with a trend to the downside which has been identified for some market participants as a bear flag.
Source: TonyTrades BTC via Telegram
On this timeframe, larger investors could be “baiting” retail into trading the bear flag. However, the TD Sequential suggest these investors could be entering a trap, as it suggests a short squeeze which could play out as soon as today’s daily close, according to Tony’s analysis.
Data from IntoTheBlock major resistance level for Bitcoin bulls between $37,500 to $38,500. There are over 822.210 BTC which were purchased by 1.06 million addresses which could be seeking to take profit. A successful break above these levels could push BTC back to the $42,000 price mark.
Source: IntoTheBlock via Ali Martinez (Twitter).
Investment firm QCP Capital the short squeeze thesis due to the extend of the current bearish price action. The firm presented two key reasons on why Bitcoin and the crypto market could see a relief in February.
First, the U.S. FED has a “light agenda” for the coming month until 17 March. On this date, the financial institution could announce a decision on interest rates and a change in monetary policy. However, a 25 basis points (bps) seems to be priced in.
This could contribute with a relief in the crypto market, unless the FED decides to implement a more aggressive monetary policy. In any case, March could mark a turning point for Bitcoin and traditional markets, as investors will have their eyes on the FED.
The Long-Term Perspective For Bitcoin, More Downside Likely?
Historically, QCP Capital Noted, February has been a bullish month for Bitcoin which records over 10% in average profits since 2015, with exception of 2020. The bearish price action at the time could have been driven by the COVID-19 pandemic which eventually also contributed with that year’s rally.
However, the firm expects 2022 to be a tough year for the crypto market due to significant macro-economic factors, mainly the actions to be adopted by the U.S. FED. The time at which these changes will be implemented, remain the most important factor and will have an important impact for either bulls or bears. QCP said:
(…) while we think a short-term squeeze higher is likely, we are not overly optimistic for 2022. We remain of the view that crypto prices will remain under pressure and struggle to break the all-time highs this year (…). Any indication of QT (Quantitative Tightnening) starting earlier than expected would be taken very badly by the market.
A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.
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