Stephan Livera, an esteemed host of his namesake podcast and Swan Bitcoin’s Head of Education, has now the crypto community with projections for Bitcoin’s future trajectory. This week, Bitcoin experienced a rally that took its price to as high as $35,000, marking its highest point since May 2022.
However, amid the favorable climate around a potential spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval and institutional adoption, Livera posits that this surge is merely the precursor to a much grander bull run.
The Potential Impetus: A Spot Bitcoin ETF
Approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could be a game-changer for Bitcoin’s valuation, according to Livera. Conversing with Michelle Makori, the Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News, during the Pacific Bitcoin Festival, Livera emphasized the possible ripple effects of such an approval.
While murmurs suggest that ETF approval might be on the horizon by the close of this year, Livera diverges from this sentiment. Livera anticipates this landmark event to materialize more likely in 2024. The Head of Education at Swan Bitcoin noted:
Although many experts predict that [a spot Bitcoin ETF] will come in three to six months, I don’t believe it will happen this year. Next year is the more likely scenario … in the first or second quarter of 2024, which would coincide with the halving cycle, which is expected in April.
Notably, a significant event, such as the halving cycle, will impact Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Historically, this event – which slices the miners’ reward for new block addition to the Bitcoin blockchain by half – has spurred price shifts.
The upcoming cycle will set the block reward at 3.125 BTC. This, combined with the potential spot ETF approval, could catalyze a heightened interest and influx of investments into Bitcoin, according to Livera.
Projected Peaks And Troughs: The BTC Landscape
Livera offers a roadmap of Bitcoin’s possible pricing journey. The Swan Bitcoin’s Head of Education foresees a stabilization around the $30,000 mark shortly, with a potential escalation toward $40,000 as we approach next year’s halving event.
But the real fireworks might commence after the halving, ushering in a wild bull run. Expounding on historical trends, Livera shared:
Historically, what we’ve seen around the halving is a bit of a rise into the halving, then a bit of a selloff after. Six to 12 months out, that’s when the real crazy bull run happens, and you get 10x or 20x in the Bitcoin price at that point.
This extrapolation by Livera culminates in a noteworthy prediction for the end of 2024 – a bold ascent, perhaps reaching roughly $500,000 by 2025 or early 2026, according to the expert.
However, the climb might be coupled with a steep decline. Drawing parallels to gold, Livera posits Bitcoin could potentially mimic its valuation range. Livera added, emphasizing the volatility of the crypto domain:
It’s quite possible that Bitcoin comes close to the range of gold, and that would imply a price in the $500k range. As is a tradition in this industry, we’ll probably hit that as a blow-off top, followed by a drop of 80%. So, it might go to $500k and then crash to $100k.
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView