Bitcoin Faces ‘Moment Of Truth�/h2>

Bitcoin is having one of the best months in the cryptocurrency’s recent history, jumping over 47% from its monthly opening to its latest ATH. Since November 18, BTC has been moving within the $90,000-$99,000 price range, holding above the lowest range zone despite the recent retraces.

After surpassing the $99,000 level twice, the ongoing rally has fueled investors�optimism about achieving the potential run to the $100,000 milestone this month. However, the flagship crypto has been facing rejection from a Lower High resistance line for the last week.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin has been closing daily below a one-week Lower High trendline. To the analyst, this resistance marks a “moment of truth�as a daily close above it could send BTC toward the $100,000 mark.

However, continuing to close below it risks a “likely reject at the trendline resistance once again.�Despite hitting the $97,000 mark yesterday, BTC closed Wednesday around $95,300 for the seventh day. Bitcoin must close Thursday above the $97,000 level to break out from the trendline.

The analyst noted that this trendline could be “a point of rejection again for Bitcoin For as long as it is a resistance,�adding that investors “could see lower range levels again.�/p>

November To Close With A Near 40% Rally

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that one key demand zone for Bitcoin is the $93,580 mark, as 667,000 addresses bought nearly 504,000 BTC at this price. Martinez warned that staying above this level “is a must�to prevent these holders from selling off.

Moreover, the analyst’s chart highlighted that the biggest resistance level ahead is the $96,614 mark, where 155,000 addressed purchased 297,000 BTC.

Martinez also suggested BTC could bounce to the range highs, fueled by Thanksgiving Day. It’s worth noting that, throughout the years, Bitcoin has recorded violent price swings around this holiday, like 2020’s �a href="//wncen.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-another-thanksgiving-day-massacre/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ">Thanksgiving Day Massacre,�which saw BTC record a 17% price drop within hours.

The analyst shared that Bitcoin has been moving within a one-day bullish falling wedge, retesting the lower range as support and bouncing in the morning. To him, a successful breakout from this formation could trigger a rebound to $99,000.

BTC currently records a 36.6% monthly return, according to data from Coinglass, with the potential to see further gains in November’s last two days. Nonetheless, November will seemingly close as this year’s second-best month, setting the stage for a massive rally in December.

As of this writing, BTC is trading at $95,135, a 1% drop in the last 24 hours.

On Monday and Tuesday, Bitcoin’s price underwent an 8% correction, dropping from $98,871 to a low of $90,791. This sudden downturn has sparked discussions among analysts if history could be repeating for the BTC price.

Bitcoin ‘Thanksgiving Day Massacre’ 2024?

Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, took to X to draw parallels between the current market and the events of 2020. “Who remembers the Thanksgiving dump of 2020? Bitcoin dumped 17% between Wednesday, Nov 25, and Friday, Nov 27, 2020. BTCUSD later went on to more than 3x over the next 5 months. Does history rhyme?”

A potential catalyst for the crash could be the global M2 money supply. Currently, a chart illustrating the correlation between Bitcoin and global M2 is circulating on X.

Joe Consorti, an analyst at Theya, observed that since September 2023, “Bitcoin has closely tracked global M2 with a ~70-day lag.” Over the past two months, global M2 has declined from $108.3 trillion to $104.7 trillion, driven by factors such as a strengthening US dollar—devaluing foreign currency-denominated M2 when converted into dollars—and economic slowdowns dampening lending and deposit creation.

Consorti cautions, “If it continues to follow the current contraction in M2, a 20-25% correction could materialize, potentially pulling bitcoin down to roughly $73,000—not a price prediction, but a stark reminder of Bitcoin’s tether to the global money supply.â€?However, he also acknowledged that Bitcoin might defy this trend, as it has in the past, particularly “from 2022-2023 due to the FTX collapse and interest in the space evaporating as a result.”

He suggests that structural ETF inflows and corporate buying pressure could help Bitcoin resist the current M2 deflation. Consorti concludes, “Either way, a correction at this point seems about right. As mentioned before, these rapid run-ups in Bitcoin’s price always have pitstops along the way, […] it’s vital to understand the asset you hold, the macro environment it exists in, and the forces driving it higher long-term. If you truly understand bitcoin, you don’t panic sell.â€?/p>

Despite the cautious outlook, some analysts believe the dip may be short-lived. Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, points out via X that “a Bitcoin bid has overshadowed tightening liquidity over the past month.” While acknowledging that Bitcoin appears “overstretched vs. global M2” and that his liquidity model suggested caution, especially with leverage, Coutts highlights potential policy shifts that could favor risk assets.

He references insights from economist Andreas Steno, indicating that the Federal Reserve is “in effect, discussing a put for USD liquidity—changes to support liquidity developments as early as December.” Coutts concludes: “DXY could have topped here. The lag effect that Fintwit is focused on atm is still real, but ultimately, the Fed is waving the bull flag for risk assets again. Bullish 2025. Bullish BTC.â€?/p>

At press time, BTC traded at $93,250.