The launch of a U.S.-regulated Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has long been the dream of cryptocurrency investors \u2014 they believe that such a vehicle would catalyze mass inflows, kicking off BTC’s largest bull run yet. Though, the past few years haven’t been too kind to cryptocurrency ETF hopefuls.<\/p>\n
Just last month, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which presides over ETFs, issued a 112-page order denying an application from Bitwise, who asserted this industry is ready for an ETF. Compound\u2019s general counsel, Jake Chervinsky, pointed out<\/a>\u00a0that the denial order \u201creads like a damning indictment of Bitcoin\u2019s market structure.\u201d<\/p>\n Worse still, the prospect that the Bitcoin market is ready for an ETF recently got even more pushback. This time, the pushback came from a leading cryptocurrency analyst, the “permabull” Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors.<\/p>\n Speaking at the Blockshow conference in Singapore this week, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said that the current cryptocurrency market is too small to get its own fund. He claimed that for an ETF to be approved by the SEC, the underlying Bitcoin market will need to be much bigger, at least 18 times larger than the current size. “He estimates Bitcoin needs to be around $150,000 to cope with daily demand on an ETF,” Bloomberg wrote on the matter<\/a>.<\/p>\n This came shortly after Todd Rosenbluth, Director of Mutual & Exchange Traded Fund Research of markets research firm CFRA, argued on CNBC that a cryptocurrency ETF remains a quixotic dream:<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s not the wrapper, it\u2019s not the ETF product that\u2019s the concern, it\u2019s the underlying asset that the SEC is worried about from a fraud standpoint. They don\u2019t want to pull off that band aid too quickly.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n In a sense, then, the launch of a Bitcoin ETF in Lee’s eyes is much like a chicken and the egg scenario: the launch of an ETF would likely expedite a rally over $100,000, which would boost liquidity, though this market is not currently large or liquid enough for such a fund.<\/p>\n This may leave you wondering \u2014 is a $100,000+ Bitcoin price even feasible?<\/p>\n Per previous reports from NewsBTC<\/a>, $100,000 is decisively possible. PlanB\u2019s<\/a> stock-to-flow scarcity model for Bitcoin, which uses the cryptocurrency\u2019s stock-to-flow ratio and relates it to BTC\u2019s market capitalization, for instance, implies a six-figure price for the cryptocurrency is on the horizon.<\/p>\n The linear regression model, which produces a 95% R2 (statistic lingo for extremely accurate), predicts that BTC\u2019s fair value will reach\u00a0somewhere between $50,000 and $100,000 after May<\/a> 2020\u2019s halving event. The idea here is that the halvings, which reduce the number of coins minted per day by 50%, will cause a negative supply shock, pushing prices higher should demand for BTC remain.<\/p>\n As absurd as this may sound, PlanB\u2019s research<\/a> has also found that the price of Bitcoin always trends towards the fair value indicated by the model with ample time.<\/p>\n Stock-to-flow model has a lot of proponents, but not everybody is a fan. For a balanced view here are some of the most well known people against S2F:https:\/\/t.co\/p2cLe7uGID<\/a>https:\/\/t.co\/WlYSChAfVt<\/a>https:\/\/t.co\/TzRLfxRZ9E<\/a> — PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 29, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\nRelated Reading: Bitcoin Mining Now Consumes A Quarter Percent Of Global Electricity<\/a><\/h6>\n
Bye-Bye ETF Dreams<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Related Reading: BTC Open Interest May Act as Rocket Fuel for Explosive Bull Movement<\/a><\/h6>\n
Is a $100,000 Bitcoin Possible?<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Related Reading: Former ECB President\u2019s Statement Shows Bitcoin Does Have Impact on the Economy<\/a><\/h6>\n
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Tell me what you think. And .. did I miss anybody? pic.twitter.com\/PthuHUvrlP<\/a><\/p>\n