If you were trading Bitcoin or other crypto assets in late-2018, you likely remember the word “capitulation” mentioned time and time again. Why? well, after trading at $6,000 for months on end, BTC traders finally capitulated in November, resulting in the price of the leading cryptocurrency collapsing from $6,000 to $3,150 in four weeks’ time. This was the 2018 bear market’s capitulation moment.<\/p>\n
With crypto as a whole entering back into a bearish state since Bitcoin’s year-to-date peak of $14,000 was established in June, analysts have been wondering if 2019’s bear market has had its own capitulation moment.<\/p>\n
According to on-chain analytics, this event hasn’t happened yet, implying that prices of digital assets may have further to fall before a recovery. Sorry bulls…<\/p>\n
Cryptocurrency analyst CryptoHamster recently drew attention to the below chart,<\/a> which shows the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator \u2014 an indication of the average Bitcoin holder’s profitability \u2014 over the past few years.<\/p>\n In it, he shows that the SOPR is a way in which analysts can accurately determine the four phases of Bitcoin’s market cycles: bull market, transition period, a bear market, and a capitulation event that starts the cycle again.<\/p>\n CryptoHamster noted that per historical trends, Bitcoin has not yet seen a capitulation event for the current cycle, implying that the crypto market could see one strong dip before a return to a bullish phase.<\/p>\n SOPR, 7-days-smoothed data. — CryptoHamster (@CryptoHamsterIO) January 1, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
Markets phases are pretty clear (see the reaction of the indicator with the level "1").
Currently we are in a bear market and there was no capitulation yet. $BTC<\/a> $BTCUSD<\/a> #bitcoin<\/a>@renato_shira<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/VyEQ0R0olo<\/a><\/p>\n