{"id":431192,"date":"2020-07-18T00:25:15","date_gmt":"2020-07-18T00:25:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=431192"},"modified":"2024-06-11T14:05:20","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T14:05:20","slug":"lengthening-bitcoin-cycles-halving","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/lengthening-bitcoin-cycles-halving\/","title":{"rendered":"How Lengthening Bitcoin Cycles Conflict With Halving Driven Supply Theories"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin is at a critical junction<\/a>. A breakout into a new bull market here backs up the stock-to-flow theory and other halving and supply-driven expectations. Others believe in lengthening cycles between each major peak as adoption takes place and volatility decreases.<\/p>\n

However, the lengthening cycle theory coming true would essentially put an end to just about all halving-based theories instantly. Here’s why.<\/p>\n

Cryptocurrency Adoption Curve Could Lead To Longer Market Cycles<\/h2>\n

The leading cryptocurrency by market cap has been consolidating below resistance for months now<\/a>. The sideways trading range has left the asset dropping to the lowest levels of volatility it can reach.<\/p>\n

When the notoriously volatile asset reached this low of volatility, an enormous over 50 to 80% move follows<\/a>. The entire crypto market is watching and waiting for whatever comes next. It’s just taking a lot longer than expected and leading to boredom.<\/p>\n

Related Reading | Bollinger Band Contraction Could Send Bitcoin Flying 50% Or More<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Volatility may even drop further over time, as adoption takes place<\/a>. As Bitcoin’s market cap grows and so does liquidity, relatively volatility should continue to decline.<\/p>\n

This lowering in volatility also comes alongside a lengthening bear and bull cycle, with a longer duration between peaks. Several highly accurate crypto analysts are proponents of this theory<\/a>, based on the asset’s logarithmic growth curve.<\/p>\n

As price action travels along the curve, volatility decreases creating a more stable Bitcoin over time. It will take decades for the asset to fully stabilize, but it has continued to do so as time passes. The only issue with this type of theory advocating lengthening Bitcoin cycles is the fact that it is deeply in conflict with supply and halving-based theories.<\/p>\n

\"bitcoin<\/p>\n

Brave New Coin Bitcoin Liquid Index Weekly | Source: TradingView<\/a> Via: DavetheWave Twitter<\/a><\/pre>\n
How A Longer Bitcoin Cycle Means Expectations Around The Halving Are Dead Wrong<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin has only been around for just over a decade. Therefore, historical analysis only has a small sample at which to draw from. There has only been one major bear market, and we’re amidst or potentially at the end of the second.<\/p>\n
The last bear market ended when Bitcoin’s halving passed. The halving reduces the block reward miners receive for securing the network.<\/p>\n
As the already limited supply gets further reduced, the theory is that demand begins to outweigh available supply and the asset’s price rises. The stock-to-flow model<\/a> measures the asset’s relative scarcity based on its supply, points to a new bull market coming any day now.<\/p>\n
Technicals also point to a new uptrend forming<\/a>, but advocates of the lengthening cycle theory are expecting another year of consolidation at least before the bull market breakout occurs.<\/p>\n
Related Reading | Data: Bitcoin Is In Accumulation, and That Means $10k Could Soon Break<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n
While this would be disappointing for crypto investors, it would likely be healthier for Bitcoin in the long run. However, it certainly would put an end to any theories that each halving fuels each bull market.<\/p>\n
This is because the halving arrives every four years<\/a>, and the BTC supply gets further reduced. A bull market may have started in 2016 following the last halving, and history does often repeat. But a lengthening cycle is also a very real possibility.<\/p>\n
Whatever the case and trajectory, crypto investors should soon find out once this current trading range breaks. A breakdown would put an end to theories suggesting the halving is the catalyst and would give more credence to lengthening cycles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bitcoin is at a critical junction. A breakout into a new bull market here backs up the stock-to-flow theory and other halving and supply-driven expectations. Others believe in lengthening cycles between each major peak as adoption takes place and volatility decreases. However, the lengthening cycle theory coming true would essentially put an end to just about all halving-based theories instantly. Here’s why. Cryptocurrency Adoption Curve Could Lead To Longer Market Cycles The leading cryptocurrency by market cap has been consolidating below resistance for months now. The sideways trading range has left the asset dropping to the lowest levels of volatility it can reach. When the notoriously volatile asset reached this low of volatility, an enormous over 50 to 80% move follows. The entire crypto market is watching and waiting for whatever comes next. It’s just taking a lot longer than expected and leading to boredom. Related Reading | Bollinger Band Contraction Could Send Bitcoin Flying 50% Or More Volatility may even drop further over time, as adoption takes place. As Bitcoin’s market cap grows and so does liquidity, relatively volatility should continue to decline. This lowering in volatility also comes alongside a lengthening bear and bull cycle, with a longer duration between peaks. Several highly accurate crypto analysts are proponents of this theory, based on the asset’s logarithmic growth curve. As price action travels along the curve, volatility decreases creating a more stable Bitcoin over time. It will take decades for the asset to fully stabilize, but it has continued to do so as time passes. The only issue with this type of theory advocating lengthening Bitcoin cycles is the fact that it is deeply in conflict with supply and halving-based theories. Brave New Coin Bitcoin Liquid Index Weekly | Source: TradingView Via: DavetheWave Twitter How A Longer Bitcoin Cycle Means Expectations Around The Halving Are Dead Wrong Bitcoin has only been around for just over a decade. Therefore, historical analysis only has a small sample at which to draw from. There has only been one major bear market, and we’re amidst or potentially at the end of the second. The last bear market ended when Bitcoin’s halving passed. The halving reduces the block reward miners receive for securing the network. As the already limited supply gets further reduced, the theory is that demand begins to outweigh available supply and the asset’s price rises. The stock-to-flow model measures the asset’s relative scarcity based on its supply, points to a new bull market coming any day now. Technicals also point to a new uptrend forming, but advocates of the lengthening cycle theory are expecting another year of consolidation at least before the bull market breakout occurs. Related Reading | Data: Bitcoin Is In Accumulation, and That Means $10k Could Soon Break While this would be disappointing for crypto investors, it would likely be healthier for Bitcoin in the long run. However, it certainly would put an end to any theories that each halving fuels each bull market. This is because the halving arrives every four years, and the BTC supply gets further reduced. A bull market may have started in 2016 following the last halving, and history does often repeat. But a lengthening cycle is also a very real possibility. Whatever the case and trajectory, crypto investors should soon find out once this current trading range breaks. A breakdown would put an end to theories suggesting the halving is the catalyst and would give more credence to lengthening cycles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":517,"featured_media":431289,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5651,3,4],"tags":[428,1119,1144,78790,6664,4524,76835],"class_list":["post-431192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-news","category-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-btcusd","tag-btcusdt","tag-crypto","tag-xbt","tag-xbtusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHow Lengthening Bitcoin Cycles Conflict With Halving Driven Supply Theories<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin is at a critical junction. 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As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market. A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony\u2019s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements. Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions. In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony\u2019s expertise to guide their trading strategies. Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies. Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders. His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics. Tony\u2019s nickname, \"The Bull,\" aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice. In summary, Tony \"The Bull\" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.","sameAs":["https:\/\/coinchartist.io\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/coinchartist_io\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/tonythebullBTC","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@coinchartist_io"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/tonymspilotro\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"How Lengthening Bitcoin Cycles Conflict With Halving Driven Supply Theories","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/lengthening-bitcoin-cycles-halving\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/lengthening-bitcoin-cycles-halving\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/bitcoin-lengthening-halving-cycle-Depositphotos_27574789_xl-2015-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/bitcoin-lengthening-halving-cycle-Depositphotos_27574789_xl-2015-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1704"},"articleSection":"Bitcoin","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Tony \"El Toro\" Severino"}],"creator":["Tony \"El Toro\" Severino"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","btc","btcusd","btcusdt","crypto","xbt","xbtusd"],"dateCreated":"2020-07-18T00:25:15Z","datePublished":"2020-07-18T00:25:15Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T14:05:20Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"How Lengthening Bitcoin Cycles Conflict With Halving Driven Supply Theories\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/lengthening-bitcoin-cycles-halving\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/lengthening-bitcoin-cycles-halving\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/07\\\/bitcoin-lengthening-halving-cycle-Depositphotos_27574789_xl-2015-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/07\\\/bitcoin-lengthening-halving-cycle-Depositphotos_27574789_xl-2015-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1704\"},\"articleSection\":\"Bitcoin\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Tony \\\"El Toro\\\" Severino\"}],\"creator\":[\"Tony \\\"El Toro\\\" Severino\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\",\"btcusdt\",\"crypto\",\"xbt\",\"xbtusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2020-07-18T00:25:15Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-07-18T00:25:15Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T14:05:20Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/bitcoin-lengthening-halving-cycle-Depositphotos_27574789_xl-2015-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1704","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/431192"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/517"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=431192"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/431192\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/431289"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=431192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=431192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=431192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}