{"id":437234,"date":"2020-09-04T01:00:48","date_gmt":"2020-09-04T01:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=437234"},"modified":"2024-06-11T07:41:34","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T07:41:34","slug":"how-this-bitcoin-bull-runs-momentum-is-so-different-from-the-last","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/how-this-bitcoin-bull-runs-momentum-is-so-different-from-the-last\/","title":{"rendered":"How This Bitcoin Bull Run\u2019s Momentum Is \u201cSo Different\u201d From The Last"},"content":{"rendered":"
Bitcoin’s halving<\/a> is now in the past, and stock-to-flow formulas predict that the asset is ready to rocket out from current lows. But that’s yet to happen, and the crypto market is even crashing currently.<\/p>\n Here’s how this bull market is shaping up to have much “different” momentum this time around, according to one pseudonymous trader. According to the analyst and their theory on lengthening Bitcoin cycles, the slower momentum matches up precisely. Is this a sign that the stock-to-flow model is nonsense, and instead cycles are lengthening<\/a> regardless of the halving?<\/p>\n The cryptocurrency market on daily and weekly timeframes has had plenty of momentum behind it, helping to propel Bitcoin to a new 2020 high. Ethereum and most other altcoins followed, surging and setting new local highs.<\/p>\n But a selloff has begun<\/a>, suggesting that the ultra-hot crypto market will be cooling off again for some time. If prices drop much further or remain sideways for an extended period, it would seriously call into question all supply-based theories such as the highly-referenced stock-to-flow model.<\/p>\n Related Reading | Bitcoin Breaks Below $11,000, How Deep Will The Selloff Go?<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n The S2F model created by Plan B looks at the cryptocurrency’s digital scarcity and block reward reductions called halvings that occur every four years.<\/p>\n The idea is that as supply is reduced from each halving, the value of Bitcoin should rise exponentially as a result. But the cryptocurrency is back trading in the $10,000s<\/a> after spending only a month or so over $10,000 for the first time since 2019.<\/p>\n In 2019, crypto analysts expected new all-time highs, and the same exuberance is filling the crypto market with high hopes for 2020. But the rug may have just been pulled, and another similar fall like last year could put an end to supply-based theories for good.<\/p>\n But Bitcoin slowing down and losing some momentum isn’t a bad thing. Like 2019, getting too overheated can result in an extended drawdown. Bitcoin correcting now rather than in another $5,000 or so, may be a far healthier climb in the long run.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n As for how long that run may take, it could be a lot longer<\/a> due to the waning momentum. That’s not to say that Bitcoin’s momentum isn’t strong, it just hasn’t anywhere near as strong as past bull market cycles.<\/p>\n According to crypto analyst Dave the Wave<\/a>, the MACD<\/a> on monthly timeframes has far less momentum behind it than past cycles.<\/p>\n This observance lends credence to the lengthening cycle theory<\/a> that’s recently been picking up more steam the longer it takes for the crypto asset to moon.<\/p>\n Related Reading | Shock & Awe: Bitcoin Losing Momentum Could Result in Elliot Wave Correction to $1,000<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Less overall momentum means a slower, healthier climb, and Bitcoin having a greater chance of becoming a stable, store of wealth in the long term. For now, the disruptive technology isn’t well adopted enough for volatility to decrease, but lengthening theories suggest this volatility \u2013 and momentum \u2013 decreasing over time will lead to a longer time between each new peak<\/a>.<\/p>\nBitcoin Bull Markets Are Losing Momentum, But That’s Not Bad<\/h2>\n
BTCUSD Monthly MACD Bull Market Momentum Comparison | Source: TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
How Less Momentum Could Lead Cryptocurrency To Lengthening Market Cycles<\/h2>\n