{"id":459257,"date":"2021-03-23T01:00:41","date_gmt":"2021-03-23T01:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=459257"},"modified":"2024-06-11T13:09:20","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T13:09:20","slug":"bitcoin-price-momentum-lmacd-btc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-price-momentum-lmacd-btc\/","title":{"rendered":"How Bitcoin Price Could Shed 50 To 70% If Momentum Turns Down"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin price is down nearly 10%<\/a> from recent highs set earlier this month, but the underlying strength of the price action is beginning to fade ever so slightly.<\/p>\n

The weekly MACD is also turning , potentially ready to cross over for the first time in months. Here’s how such a bearish crossover could result in as much as a 50 to 70% correction in the leading cryptocurrency by market cap.<\/p>\n

Is The Bitcoin Bull Market Coming To A Conclusion Soon?<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin by most standards has been in uptrend for a full year now<\/a>, dating back to Black Thursday in March 2020. The trend began to turn slightly up even before then, dating back to the bottom of the bear market in 2018.<\/p>\n

From that bottom, the top cryptocurrency rocketed from lows but momentum finally ran out before new highs were reached. This last push, was successful in breaking through former resistance and setting a new all-time high three times the last cycle’s peak.<\/p>\n

Related Reading | This Bitcoin Metric Says The Bull Market Might Soon Be Over<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

However, things could be once again turning down, much like they did in 2019. Or worse yet, according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence on weekly timeframes, this could be the end of the bull market for some time<\/a>.<\/p>\n

At the very least, data shows that if a bearish crossover happens \u2013 something that Bitcoin is just inches away from \u2013 a between 50 to 70% correction typically follows.<\/p>\n

\"bitcoin<\/p>\n

Momentum is turning down, and past instances show steep corrections | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/pre>\n
What Momentum Says About The Current Cryptocurrency Market Cycle<\/h2>\n
Looking at the above chart, the correlation between the logarithmic version of the MACD<\/a> and past peaks are undeniable. When the MACD crosses bearish on weekly timeframes, it has been a reliable signal the top is in.<\/p>\n
The one catch, is that the reading must be above 0.25 to be effective in spotting the top. It’s also worth noting, that each top actually happened before the bearish crossover, which is why the MACD has a notorious reputation as a lagging indicator.<\/p>\n
\"lmacd<\/p>\n
A more detailed look at the LMACD reveals a lot about price action | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/pre>\n
Removing price action, and focusing on the details of the LMACD alone<\/a>, tells an in-depth story about price action over the last several years.<\/p>\n
Any red arrows marked a medium-to-long-term top. Each were above the key level of 0.25, and three out of four are brushing up a descending trendline, which the LMACD is currently touching now. Two out of those three were tops, but there’s no telling if the third time is the charm<\/a>.<\/p>\n
Arrows marked in orange also show yet another 50 to 70% collapse after the original 50 to 70% crash has concluded, but those were sweeps of bear market lows. Blue arrows are a lot more confusing, resulting in bearish crossovers and selloffs, but also an immediate resumption of the bull trend<\/a>.<\/p>\n
Related Reading | Following Bitcoin \u201cReset,\u201d It\u2019s \u201cOff To The Races Again\u201d<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n
Which is what brings Bitcoin to an interest inflection point currently. The LMACD is, as mentioned, touching a trendline dating back nearly a decade worth of bull market tops, adding credence to any theories that the peak of this cycle could be in already<\/a>.<\/p>\n
But its worth mentioning also, that due to the several blue arrows, and the fact that Bitcoin already broke through one descending trendline (red dashed line) could suggest that this current run is going to break more than just price records.<\/p>\n
Finally, although a top could be in for now, there’s no ruling out a 2013-like scenario where there were two distinct peaks only seven months apart. That would imply that any bearish crossover, would ultimately turn back up similar to 2017<\/a>, but bring with it another peak just like 2013.<\/p>\n
Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bitcoin price is down nearly 10% from recent highs set earlier this month, but the underlying strength of the price action is beginning to fade ever so slightly. The weekly MACD is also turning , potentially ready to cross over for the first time in months. Here’s how such a bearish crossover could result in as much as a 50 to 70% correction in the leading cryptocurrency by market cap. Is The Bitcoin Bull Market Coming To A Conclusion Soon? Bitcoin by most standards has been in uptrend for a full year now, dating back to Black Thursday in March 2020. The trend began to turn slightly up even before then, dating back to the bottom of the bear market in 2018. From that bottom, the top cryptocurrency rocketed from lows but momentum finally ran out before new highs were reached. This last push, was successful in breaking through former resistance and setting a new all-time high three times the last cycle’s peak. Related Reading | This Bitcoin Metric Says The Bull Market Might Soon Be Over However, things could be once again turning down, much like they did in 2019. Or worse yet, according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence on weekly timeframes, this could be the end of the bull market for some time. At the very least, data shows that if a bearish crossover happens \u2013 something that Bitcoin is just inches away from \u2013 a between 50 to 70% correction typically follows. Momentum is turning down, and past instances show steep corrections | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com What Momentum Says About The Current Cryptocurrency Market Cycle Looking at the above chart, the correlation between the logarithmic version of the MACD and past peaks are undeniable. When the MACD crosses bearish on weekly timeframes, it has been a reliable signal the top is in. The one catch, is that the reading must be above 0.25 to be effective in spotting the top. It’s also worth noting, that each top actually happened before the bearish crossover, which is why the MACD has a notorious reputation as a lagging indicator. A more detailed look at the LMACD reveals a lot about price action | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Removing price action, and focusing on the details of the LMACD alone, tells an in-depth story about price action over the last several years. Any red arrows marked a medium-to-long-term top. Each were above the key level of 0.25, and three out of four are brushing up a descending trendline, which the LMACD is currently touching now. Two out of those three were tops, but there’s no telling if the third time is the charm. Arrows marked in orange also show yet another 50 to 70% collapse after the original 50 to 70% crash has concluded, but those were sweeps of bear market lows. Blue arrows are a lot more confusing, resulting in bearish crossovers and selloffs, but also an immediate resumption of the bull trend. Related Reading | Following Bitcoin \u201cReset,\u201d It\u2019s \u201cOff To The Races Again\u201d Which is what brings Bitcoin to an interest inflection point currently. The LMACD is, as mentioned, touching a trendline dating back nearly a decade worth of bull market tops, adding credence to any theories that the peak of this cycle could be in already. But its worth mentioning also, that due to the several blue arrows, and the fact that Bitcoin already broke through one descending trendline (red dashed line) could suggest that this current run is going to break more than just price records. Finally, although a top could be in for now, there’s no ruling out a 2013-like scenario where there were two distinct peaks only seven months apart. That would imply that any bearish crossover, would ultimately turn back up similar to 2017, but bring with it another peak just like 2013. Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":517,"featured_media":459259,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,1119,1144,78790,6664,4524,76835],"class_list":["post-459257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-btcusd","tag-btcusdt","tag-crypto","tag-xbt","tag-xbtusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHow Bitcoin Price Could Shed 50 To 70% If Momentum Turns Down<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin price is down nearly 10% from recent highs set earlier this month, but the underlying strength of the price action is beginning to fade ever so\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market. A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony\u2019s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements. Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions. In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony\u2019s expertise to guide their trading strategies. Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies. Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders. His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics. Tony\u2019s nickname, \"The Bull,\" aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice. In summary, Tony \"The Bull\" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.","sameAs":["https:\/\/coinchartist.io\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/coinchartist_io\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/tonythebullBTC","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@coinchartist_io"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/tonymspilotro\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"How Bitcoin Price Could Shed 50 To 70% If Momentum Turns Down","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-price-momentum-lmacd-btc\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-price-momentum-lmacd-btc\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/bitcoin-crash-Depositphotos_1622774_xl-2015-scaled.jpeg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/bitcoin-crash-Depositphotos_1622774_xl-2015-scaled.jpeg?fit=2560%2C1920"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Tony \"El Toro\" Severino"}],"creator":["Tony \"El Toro\" Severino"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","btc","btcusd","btcusdt","crypto","xbt","xbtusd"],"dateCreated":"2021-03-23T01:00:41Z","datePublished":"2021-03-23T01:00:41Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T13:09:20Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"How Bitcoin Price Could Shed 50 To 70% If Momentum Turns Down\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-price-momentum-lmacd-btc\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-price-momentum-lmacd-btc\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/03\\\/bitcoin-crash-Depositphotos_1622774_xl-2015-scaled.jpeg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/03\\\/bitcoin-crash-Depositphotos_1622774_xl-2015-scaled.jpeg?fit=2560%2C1920\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Tony \\\"El Toro\\\" Severino\"}],\"creator\":[\"Tony \\\"El Toro\\\" Severino\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\",\"btcusdt\",\"crypto\",\"xbt\",\"xbtusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2021-03-23T01:00:41Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-03-23T01:00:41Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T13:09:20Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/bitcoin-crash-Depositphotos_1622774_xl-2015-scaled.jpeg?fit=2560%2C1920","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/459257"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/517"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=459257"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/459257\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/459259"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=459257"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=459257"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=459257"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}