{"id":466998,"date":"2021-07-06T21:11:36","date_gmt":"2021-07-06T21:11:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=466998"},"modified":"2024-06-11T13:56:52","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T13:56:52","slug":"gbtc-spells-doom-bitcoin-break-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/gbtc-spells-doom-bitcoin-break-down\/","title":{"rendered":"GBTC Unlocks Spells Doom For Bitcoin? Top Expert Breaks It Down"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin has been moving sideways as the rest of the crypto market, especially <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/analysis\/eth\/ethereum-steadies-near-2-2k\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Ethereum and the DeFi sector,<\/a> show strength. The first cryptocurrency by market cap needs to make a decisive move to break out of its current range but could face downside in the short term, some recent reports claim.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_467011\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-467011\" style=\"width: 860px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-467011 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Bitcoin-BTC-BTCUSD-2.png?resize=860%2C512\" alt=\"Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD\" width=\"860\" height=\"512\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-467011\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">BTC moving sideways in the daily chart. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/a4lKch7J\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">BTCUSD Tradingview<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Banking giant JP Morgan released a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/grayscale-unlockings-poses-downside-risk-to-bitcoin-price-jpmorgan-says\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">report<\/a> written by its strategists Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou on the alleged bearish signals caused by the coming <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/how-grayscale-bitcoin-trust-at-a-discount-could-change-everything-for-btc\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) shares unlocking.<\/a> The analyst expects this event to be a headwind for Bitcoin during July.<\/p>\n<p>This investment product allows its holders to sell their GBTC shares only after a 6-month lockdown period. Panigirtzoglou expects investors to liquidate their shares worth around 140,000 BTC worth of shares. Thus, they will create selling pressure in an already weaken <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-trading-volume-lowest-2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">BTC\u2019s price.<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">one thing we haven&#39;t discussed yet &#8211; the grayscale <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24GBTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">$GBTC<\/a> unlock schedule is looking really crusty <\/p>\n<p>from mid-april to mid-june, 139,000 bitcoin worth of shares have unlocked. there&#39;s another 140,000 bitcoin worth of shares that will unlock through the end of july<\/p>\n<p>yeesh <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Ha97Dh494O\" rel=\"nofollow\">pic.twitter.com\/Ha97Dh494O<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Meltem Demirors (@Melt_Dem) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Melt_Dem\/status\/00114185?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">June 23, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>This bearish theory has been gaining momentum and raised concerns amongst investors and traders. Alex Mashinsky CEO at<a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/company\/celsius-networks-cel-token-now-listed-on-okex\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \"> Celsius Network<\/a> shares this vision and predicts BTC\u2019s price to drop in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n<p>This will be the third and final capitulation event, according to Mashinsky, before Bitcoin resumes its rally towards $100,000 by the end of 2021. The unlocking is due by around mid-July. During this period, the GBTC discount will increase to 25%, Mashinsky said.<\/p>\n<p>Later, he predicts that some hedge funds will want to leverage the arbitrage opportunity between Bitcoin\u2019s price in the spot market and the GBTC discount. Thus, they could short BTC and purchase GBTC with a higher discount.<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/Mashinsky\/status\/88749827<\/p>\n<h2>The Most Bullish Scenario For Bitcoin? A Path Towards $100K<\/h2>\n<p>On-chain analyst Willy Woo thinks there are two potential impacts. Their interactions will determine how the crypto market will be affected. However, he expects the GBTC unlocking to be predominantly bullish in the short term.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">JP Morgan is bearish on the GBTC unlock coming up.<\/p>\n<p>Here I&#39;ll go through the inner workings so you can make up your own mind.<\/p>\n<p>There&#39;s 2 impacts, one bullish, one bearish. The key is in how they interact. IMO it&#39;ll be immediately bullish.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xcfMbhCBPP\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/t.co\/xcfMbhCBPP<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Willy Woo (@woonomic) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/woonomic\/status\/06188803?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">July 6, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The GBTC is structured to receive BTC without it ever leaving the trust. Thus, Woo said that the only way for this product to reduce its holding it&#8217;s via the 2% fee charged by Grayscale. In the derivatives sector, investors can buy BTC in the spot market to purchase GBTC while taking a short position.<\/p>\n<p>In doing so, they can hedge their position while they receive money from their short. When the unlocking period comes, investors can sell their GBTC shares and close their short. This is a bullish case since investors must buy BTC on the spot to acquire the shares.<\/p>\n<p>At the moment, for this trade to be profitable, Bitcoin must stand above its yearly open, around $29,000, by the time the unlocking takes place if investors bought the shares back in January. Hedge Fund and other major players invested in the GBTC have incentives to hold that critical support.<\/p>\n<p>The second impact could take place in the spot market. The unlocking would cause the GBTC premium to drop and could motivate investors to purchase shares instead of Bitcoin on the spot. Woo added:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>(Impact 1) is sudden and directly impactful than while (Impact 2 2) acts very slowly. Thus it&#8217;s a bullish. The over all impact over the long term is neutral as it&#8217;s all arbitrage which balances out in time. What we are analysing is the short term demand\/supply imbalances which may impact price.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Other experts failed to see the connection between the unlocking and BTC\u2019s price. In any case, July seemed poised to be a decisive month for the overall market. <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/analysis\/btc\/bitcoin-whales-buy-60000-bitcoins\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">The bulls could finally receive the push the need to re-enter price discovery mode.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin has been moving sideways as the rest of the crypto market, especially Ethereum and the DeFi sector, show strength. The first cryptocurrency by market cap needs to make a decisive move to break out of its current range but could face downside in the short term, some recent reports claim. Banking giant JP Morgan released a report written by its strategists Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou on the alleged bearish signals caused by the coming Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) shares unlocking. The analyst expects this event to be a headwind for Bitcoin during July. This investment product allows its holders to sell their GBTC shares only after a 6-month lockdown period. Panigirtzoglou expects investors to liquidate their shares worth around 140,000 BTC worth of shares. Thus, they will create selling pressure in an already weaken BTC\u2019s price. one thing we haven&#39;t discussed yet &#8211; the grayscale $GBTC unlock schedule is looking really crusty from mid-april to mid-june, 139,000 bitcoin worth of shares have unlocked. there&#39;s another 140,000 bitcoin worth of shares that will unlock through the end of july yeesh pic.twitter.com\/Ha97Dh494O &mdash; Meltem Demirors (@Melt_Dem) June 23, 2021 This bearish theory has been gaining momentum and raised concerns amongst investors and traders. Alex Mashinsky CEO at Celsius Network shares this vision and predicts BTC\u2019s price to drop in the coming weeks. This will be the third and final capitulation event, according to Mashinsky, before Bitcoin resumes its rally towards $100,000 by the end of 2021. The unlocking is due by around mid-July. During this period, the GBTC discount will increase to 25%, Mashinsky said. Later, he predicts that some hedge funds will want to leverage the arbitrage opportunity between Bitcoin\u2019s price in the spot market and the GBTC discount. Thus, they could short BTC and purchase GBTC with a higher discount. https:\/\/twitter.com\/Mashinsky\/status\/88749827 The Most Bullish Scenario For Bitcoin? A Path Towards $100K On-chain analyst Willy Woo thinks there are two potential impacts. Their interactions will determine how the crypto market will be affected. However, he expects the GBTC unlocking to be predominantly bullish in the short term. JP Morgan is bearish on the GBTC unlock coming up. Here I&#39;ll go through the inner workings so you can make up your own mind. There&#39;s 2 impacts, one bullish, one bearish. The key is in how they interact. IMO it&#39;ll be immediately bullish.https:\/\/t.co\/xcfMbhCBPP &mdash; Willy Woo (@woonomic) July 6, 2021 The GBTC is structured to receive BTC without it ever leaving the trust. Thus, Woo said that the only way for this product to reduce its holding it&#8217;s via the 2% fee charged by Grayscale. In the derivatives sector, investors can buy BTC in the spot market to purchase GBTC while taking a short position. In doing so, they can hedge their position while they receive money from their short. When the unlocking period comes, investors can sell their GBTC shares and close their short. This is a bullish case since investors must buy BTC on the spot to acquire the shares. At the moment, for this trade to be profitable, Bitcoin must stand above its yearly open, around $29,000, by the time the unlocking takes place if investors bought the shares back in January. Hedge Fund and other major players invested in the GBTC have incentives to hold that critical support. The second impact could take place in the spot market. The unlocking would cause the GBTC premium to drop and could motivate investors to purchase shares instead of Bitcoin on the spot. Woo added: (Impact 1) is sudden and directly impactful than while (Impact 2 2) acts very slowly. Thus it&#8217;s a bullish. The over all impact over the long term is neutral as it&#8217;s all arbitrage which balances out in time. What we are analysing is the short term demand\/supply imbalances which may impact price. Other experts failed to see the connection between the unlocking and BTC\u2019s price. In any case, July seemed poised to be a decisive month for the overall market. The bulls could finally receive the push the need to re-enter price discovery mode.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":535,"featured_media":467001,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-466998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>GBTC Unlocks Spells Doom For Bitcoin? Top Expert Breaks It Down<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin has been moving sideways as the rest of the crypto market, especially Ethereum and the DeFi sector, show strength. 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His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide. In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride. He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times. In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson\u2019s \u2018Neuromancer.\u2019 The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau\u2019s \u2018Civil Disobedience.\u2019 But that\u2019s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term. In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry. Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/reynaldo-mrquez-2ab111190\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/rl_m\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/reynaldomarquez\/\"}]}<\/script>\n","yoast_head_json":{"title":"GBTC Unlocks Spells Doom For Bitcoin? Top Expert Breaks It Down","description":"Bitcoin has been moving sideways as the rest of the crypto market, especially Ethereum and the DeFi sector, show strength. The first cryptocurrency by","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/gbtc-spells-doom-bitcoin-break-down\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"GBTC Unlocks Spells Doom For Bitcoin? 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His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide. In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride. He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times. In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson\u2019s \u2018Neuromancer.\u2019 The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau\u2019s \u2018Civil Disobedience.\u2019 But that\u2019s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term. In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry. Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/reynaldo-mrquez-2ab111190\/","https:\/\/x.com\/rl_m"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/reynaldomarquez\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"GBTC Unlocks Spells Doom For Bitcoin? 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