{"id":471317,"date":"2021-09-09T21:35:25","date_gmt":"2021-09-09T21:35:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=471317"},"modified":"2024-06-11T11:27:13","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T11:27:13","slug":"bitcoin-hashrate-recovered-by-68","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-hashrate-recovered-by-68\/","title":{"rendered":"Since China&#8217;s Mining Ban, Bitcoin Hashrate Has Recovered by 68% And Counting"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Bitcoin is a perpetual motion machine. The Bitcoin hashrate is slowly climbing to pre-China-ban levels, and the service continued uninterrupted without a hiccup. Such is the power of well-placed incentives. Pantera Capital\u2019s CEO Dan Morehead adds one more factor to the equation. \u201c<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The bitcoin network has recovered 68% of the drop in hashrate that our difficulty model attributed to China&#8217;s ban\u2014likely in places with cleaner energy<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The recovery is happening exactly as forecast.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">#bitcoin<\/a> network has recovered 68% of the drop in hashrate that our difficulty model attributed to China&#39;s ban\u2014likely in places with cleaner energy.<\/p>\n<p>The transition to renewables is underway.<\/p>\n<p>Sep Letter: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xLyaLpPQQN\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/t.co\/xLyaLpPQQN<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/UsK9ML3BU8\" rel=\"nofollow\">pic.twitter.com\/UsK9ML3BU8<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Dan Morehead (@dan_pantera) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/dan_pantera\/status\/99892738?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\">September 9, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/panteracapital.com\/blockchain-letter\/nfts-scaling-whats-next\/\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> the company\u2019s newsletter,<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Pantera fleshes out the argument:<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cAlthough difficult to know with certainty, it seems very likely that much of the reboot in mining power is occurring in places with cleaner energy than those utilized by Chinese miners.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The transition to renewables is well underway.\u201d<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Regarding The Bitcoin Hashrate, Are ESG Concerns Even Important?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Here at NewsBTC we\u2019ve determined that China\u2019s Bitcoin mining tended to go to provinces with abundant green energy. Bitcoin incentivizes that. The Bitcoin hashrate tends to go where the energy is cheap. We\u2019ve also determined that <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/the-death-of-chinas-bitcoin-mining-industry-7-takeaways-from-the-article\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">the environment doesn\u2019t seem to be the reason<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> for China&#8217;s Bitcoin mining ban.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201c<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The fact that the electricity for crypto mining in Sichuan came from clean hydropower meant that many thought the province would be a safe haven for Bitcoin miners. As pressure on local governments to cut carbon emissions mounts, projects were successfully shuttered in some other provincial-level regions \u2014 such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia \u2014 where the mining was chiefly fueled by coal<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The only thing we can know for sure about the Chinese government\u2019s plan is this: the environment is not on their radar. They\u2019re closing these mining operations for other reasons altogether.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">It\u2019s also important to remember that China\u2019s Bitcoin <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/cbeci-report-chinas-hold-over-bitcoin-mining-was-waning-before-the-crackdown\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">hashrate dominance was already on decline<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> before the mining ban.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cAccording to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.research.arcane.no\/\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Arcane Research<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, CBECI numbers say that:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">China\u2019s share of total Bitcoin mining power has declined from 75.5% in September 2019 to 46% in April 2021\u2009\u2014\u2009before the restrictions on Chinese miners were even imposed. That figure is much lower than the older estimate of 65%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">That\u2019s a sharp decline. Why did China\u2019s miners lose so much ground before the ban?\u201d<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">None of this invalidates Pantera Capital\u2019s original thesis, though. \u201c<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The transition to renewables is well underway,<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201d that certainly seems to be the case. And the Bitcoin hashrate keeps climbing.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-471322 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/BTCUSD_2021-09-09_18-08-34.png?resize=460%2C257\" alt=\"BTCUSD price chart for 09\/09\/2021 - TradingView\" width=\"460\" height=\"257\"><\/p>\n<pre style=\"text-align: center\">BTC price chart for 09\/09\/2021 on Timex | Source: BTC\/USD on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSD\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">TradingView.com<\/a><\/pre>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Do Bitcoin Halvins Imply Cuts In Energy Consumption?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Another interesting idea present in the mentioned newsletter is this one:<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cBitcoin has a built-in mechanism to reduce energy consumption over time.\u00a0 The number of bitcoin issued in the every-ten-minutes block reward is cut in half every four years.\u00a0 Ceteris paribus, the amount of electricity Bitcoin consumes will be cut by 50% every four years.\u00a0 For comparison, the Paris Accord only requires 7% cuts every four years.\u201d<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Of course, when related to fiat currencies, Bitcoin\u2019s price fluctuates. So, the value of every Bitcoin stays the same, but the price might &#8211; and usually does &#8211; increase more than twofold. Even though the miner\u2019s rewards are cut in half, their earnings might increase. That extra money could bring even more competition and a Bitcoin hashrate increase with it.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Taking that into account, Pantera poses:<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cPerhaps a more realistic scenario is if the price of bitcoin were to double every four years in parallel with the halvings \u2013 putting bitcoin at $320,000 \/BTC in 2032 \u2013 electricity consumption would be no greater than it is today.\u201d<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-471321 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Screen-Shot-2021-09-08-at-12.01.43-PM-768x427-1.png?resize=460%2C256\" alt=\"Bitcoin Electricity Consumption, Bitcoin Hashrate\" width=\"460\" height=\"256\"><\/h2>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Enough About The Bitcoin Hashrate, What About The Price?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Another point that the newsletter makes is this one.\u201c<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This is China\u2019s third ban of Bitcoin.\u00a0 The reverse hex is still working \u2013 the price is up 57%<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-471319 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Screen-Shot-2021-09-08-at-11.50.20-AM-768x432-1.png?resize=460%2C259\" alt=\"China Bans record.\" width=\"460\" height=\"259\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Related Reading | <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-learn-to-trade-crypto-trading\/\">New To Bitcoin? Learn To Trade Crypto With The NewsBTC Trading Course<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Is this a bullish signal? Bitcoin\u2019s price has \u201conly\u201d increased by 57% since the Chinese mining ban sent the Bitcoin hashrate in death spiral for a few seconds. Bitcoin paid the price and resisted sabotage like a hero. We\u2019re not sure if a \u201creverse hex\u201d could be considered reliable information, but\u2026 maybe this IS a bullish signal?<\/span><\/p>\n<pre style=\"text-align: center\">Featured Image by <a href=\"https:\/\/unsplash.com\/@diana_pole?utm_source=unsplash&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_content=creditCopyText\" rel=\"nofollow\">Diana Polekhina<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/unsplash.com\/?utm_source=unsplash&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_content=creditCopyText\" rel=\"nofollow\">Unsplash<\/a> - Charts by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">TradingView<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/panteracapital.com\/blockchain-letter\/nfts-scaling-whats-next\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">Pantera Capital<\/a><\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin is a perpetual motion machine. The Bitcoin hashrate is slowly climbing to pre-China-ban levels, and the service continued uninterrupted without a hiccup. Such is the power of well-placed incentives. Pantera Capital\u2019s CEO Dan Morehead adds one more factor to the equation. \u201cThe bitcoin network has recovered 68% of the drop in hashrate that our difficulty model attributed to China&#8217;s ban\u2014likely in places with cleaner energy.\u201d The recovery is happening exactly as forecast. The #bitcoin network has recovered 68% of the drop in hashrate that our difficulty model attributed to China&#39;s ban\u2014likely in places with cleaner energy. The transition to renewables is underway. Sep Letter: https:\/\/t.co\/xLyaLpPQQN pic.twitter.com\/UsK9ML3BU8 &mdash; Dan Morehead (@dan_pantera) September 9, 2021 In the company\u2019s newsletter, Pantera fleshes out the argument: \u201cAlthough difficult to know with certainty, it seems very likely that much of the reboot in mining power is occurring in places with cleaner energy than those utilized by Chinese miners.\u00a0 The transition to renewables is well underway.\u201d Regarding The Bitcoin Hashrate, Are ESG Concerns Even Important? Here at NewsBTC we\u2019ve determined that China\u2019s Bitcoin mining tended to go to provinces with abundant green energy. Bitcoin incentivizes that. The Bitcoin hashrate tends to go where the energy is cheap. We\u2019ve also determined that the environment doesn\u2019t seem to be the reason for China&#8217;s Bitcoin mining ban. \u201cThe fact that the electricity for crypto mining in Sichuan came from clean hydropower meant that many thought the province would be a safe haven for Bitcoin miners. As pressure on local governments to cut carbon emissions mounts, projects were successfully shuttered in some other provincial-level regions \u2014 such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia \u2014 where the mining was chiefly fueled by coal.\u201d\u00a0 The only thing we can know for sure about the Chinese government\u2019s plan is this: the environment is not on their radar. They\u2019re closing these mining operations for other reasons altogether.\u00a0 It\u2019s also important to remember that China\u2019s Bitcoin hashrate dominance was already on decline before the mining ban.\u00a0 \u201cAccording to Arcane Research, CBECI numbers say that: China\u2019s share of total Bitcoin mining power has declined from 75.5% in September 2019 to 46% in April 2021\u2009\u2014\u2009before the restrictions on Chinese miners were even imposed. That figure is much lower than the older estimate of 65%. That\u2019s a sharp decline. Why did China\u2019s miners lose so much ground before the ban?\u201d None of this invalidates Pantera Capital\u2019s original thesis, though. \u201cThe transition to renewables is well underway,\u201d that certainly seems to be the case. And the Bitcoin hashrate keeps climbing.\u00a0 BTC price chart for 09\/09\/2021 on Timex | Source: BTC\/USD on TradingView.com Do Bitcoin Halvins Imply Cuts In Energy Consumption? Another interesting idea present in the mentioned newsletter is this one: \u201cBitcoin has a built-in mechanism to reduce energy consumption over time.\u00a0 The number of bitcoin issued in the every-ten-minutes block reward is cut in half every four years.\u00a0 Ceteris paribus, the amount of electricity Bitcoin consumes will be cut by 50% every four years.\u00a0 For comparison, the Paris Accord only requires 7% cuts every four years.\u201d Of course, when related to fiat currencies, Bitcoin\u2019s price fluctuates. So, the value of every Bitcoin stays the same, but the price might &#8211; and usually does &#8211; increase more than twofold. Even though the miner\u2019s rewards are cut in half, their earnings might increase. That extra money could bring even more competition and a Bitcoin hashrate increase with it.\u00a0 Taking that into account, Pantera poses: \u201cPerhaps a more realistic scenario is if the price of bitcoin were to double every four years in parallel with the halvings \u2013 putting bitcoin at $320,000 \/BTC in 2032 \u2013 electricity consumption would be no greater than it is today.\u201d Enough About The Bitcoin Hashrate, What About The Price? Another point that the newsletter makes is this one.\u201cThis is China\u2019s third ban of Bitcoin.\u00a0 The reverse hex is still working \u2013 the price is up 57%.\u201d Related Reading | New To Bitcoin? Learn To Trade Crypto With The NewsBTC Trading Course Is this a bullish signal? Bitcoin\u2019s price has \u201conly\u201d increased by 57% since the Chinese mining ban sent the Bitcoin hashrate in death spiral for a few seconds. Bitcoin paid the price and resisted sabotage like a hero. We\u2019re not sure if a \u201creverse hex\u201d could be considered reliable information, but\u2026 maybe this IS a bullish signal? Featured Image by Diana Polekhina on Unsplash &#8211; Charts by TradingView and Pantera Capital<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":539,"featured_media":471318,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[84250,84248,8856,55860,640,83840,84247,1609,14433,11313,84249,3322],"class_list":["post-471317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin-green-energy","tag-bitcoin-halvin","tag-bitcoin-halving","tag-bitcoin-hashrate","tag-bitcoin-mining","tag-china-bans","tag-china-mining-ban","tag-dan-morehead","tag-energy-consumption","tag-esg","tag-investigative-report","tag-pantera-capital"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>Since China&#039;s Mining Ban, Bitcoin Hashrate Has Recovered by 68% And Counting<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin is a perpetual motion machine. 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