{"id":477979,"date":"2021-12-02T22:12:28","date_gmt":"2021-12-02T22:12:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=477979"},"modified":"2024-06-11T14:09:30","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T14:09:30","slug":"bitcoin-and-omicron-is-another-black-swan-brewing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-and-omicron-is-another-black-swan-brewing\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin And Omicron: Is Another Black Swan Brewing?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Back in March of 2020, those taking position ahead of the Bitcoin halving<\/a> were blindsided by the Black Thursday market selloff, driven by panic at the onset of the COVID pandemic and subsequent lockdowns.<\/p>\n

With the new Omicron strain making headlines, and lockdowns once again considered, could the cryptocurrency market be facing another dangerous macro storm and catastrophic collapse?<\/p>\n

Omicron & The Return Of The Black Swan Trend Line<\/h2>\n

According to Wikipedia<\/a>, a black swan is “an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.”<\/p>\n

Black Thursday in March 2020 classifies perfectly as such. COVID came, the market panicked, and Bitcoin collapsed back to $3,800 at the low. It turned out to be a huge overreaction.<\/p>\n

Related Reading | Want To Learn Technical Analysis? Read The NewsBTC Trading Course<\/a><\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

Despite the “surprise” factor of the event and the fact no one saw COVID coming, technical analysis proves that these black swan events can be predicted to a point<\/a>. But what if two black swan events were to happen from touching the same trend line. Would these really be considered black swan events?<\/p>\n

That’s exactly what’s at risk, given the recent Omicron strain news and related panic, and the fact that Bitcoin price is indeed up against the very trend line that was used to predict Black Thursday’s eventual target<\/a> to the dollar.<\/p>\n

\"bitcoin<\/p>\n

Could another black swan arrive with this trend line? \u00a0| Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/pre>\n
Why Another Bitcoin Black Thursday Is Unlikely<\/h2>\n
The chart above shows that Bitcoin price was rejected from the same trend line that prompted the COVID correction<\/a>. The move was so sharp and intense, a polar opposite rally resulted that took the cryptocurrency to more than $65,000 per coin.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin selling off just as severely wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing, as the bounce from such an event has shown. But despite the dangerous macro landscape and the stock market sinking, the conditions for the top cryptocurrency are very different this time around.<\/p>\n
\"BTCUSD_2021-12-02_16-48-01\"<\/p>\n
The conditions were very different then versus now | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/pre>\n
For one, the arrows depict two rejections from former resistance in 2019, with the second (marked in red) failing to break out of the Ichimoku cloud<\/a>. That resistance level dated all the way back to the very beginning of the bear market, which is why the Black Thursday rejection was particularly strong. Meanwhile, the current price action more so appears to demonstrate a resistance level being flipped as support.<\/p>\n
The blue path outlines an expected Elliott Wave motive wave<\/a>, with three impulses up and two corrective waves. Per Elliott Wave Theory, wave 1 shows there still life left in an asset, but market participants are reluctant to believe the bull market has begun.<\/p>\n
Related Reading | Finding Fibonacci: Is Bitcoin Beginning A “Golden” Recovery?<\/a><\/i><\/b><\/p>\n
Because of the remaining bearish sentiment, wave 2 wipes out most of the progress of wave 1, before wave 3 begins. With lows of wave 1 retested at the climax of wave 2, market participants are more confident in a blossoming bull trend<\/a>, which is why wave 3 tends to be the longest and strongest. EWT refers to this as a wave “extension.”<\/p>\n
Wave 4 cannot enter into the path of wave 1 and tend to move sideways. This suggests that it is unlikely to see another sharp correction<\/a> like what happened on Black Thursday in 2020. Whenever wave 4 officially ends, and whether it has or not is still up for debate, targets of $100,000 per coin remain likely for the peak of wave 5.<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/tonyspilotroBTC\/status\/15930884<\/p>\n
Follow <\/i><\/b>@TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter<\/i><\/b><\/a> or join\u00a0<\/i><\/b>the TonyTradesBTC Telegram<\/i><\/b><\/a> for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education<\/i><\/b>. Please note: Content is\u00a0educational and should not be\u00a0considered investment advice.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n
Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Back in March of 2020, those taking position ahead of the Bitcoin halving were blindsided by the Black Thursday market selloff, driven by panic at the onset of the COVID pandemic and subsequent lockdowns. With the new Omicron strain making headlines, and lockdowns once again considered, could the cryptocurrency market be facing another dangerous macro storm and catastrophic collapse? Omicron & The Return Of The Black Swan Trend Line According to Wikipedia, a black swan is “an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.” Black Thursday in March 2020 classifies perfectly as such. COVID came, the market panicked, and Bitcoin collapsed back to $3,800 at the low. It turned out to be a huge overreaction. Related Reading | Want To Learn Technical Analysis? Read The NewsBTC Trading Course Despite the “surprise” factor of the event and the fact no one saw COVID coming, technical analysis proves that these black swan events can be predicted to a point. But what if two black swan events were to happen from touching the same trend line. Would these really be considered black swan events? That’s exactly what’s at risk, given the recent Omicron strain news and related panic, and the fact that Bitcoin price is indeed up against the very trend line that was used to predict Black Thursday’s eventual target to the dollar. Could another black swan arrive with this trend line? \u00a0| Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Why Another Bitcoin Black Thursday Is Unlikely The chart above shows that Bitcoin price was rejected from the same trend line that prompted the COVID correction. The move was so sharp and intense, a polar opposite rally resulted that took the cryptocurrency to more than $65,000 per coin. Bitcoin selling off just as severely wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing, as the bounce from such an event has shown. But despite the dangerous macro landscape and the stock market sinking, the conditions for the top cryptocurrency are very different this time around. The conditions were very different then versus now | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com For one, the arrows depict two rejections from former resistance in 2019, with the second (marked in red) failing to break out of the Ichimoku cloud. That resistance level dated all the way back to the very beginning of the bear market, which is why the Black Thursday rejection was particularly strong. Meanwhile, the current price action more so appears to demonstrate a resistance level being flipped as support. The blue path outlines an expected Elliott Wave motive wave, with three impulses up and two corrective waves. Per Elliott Wave Theory, wave 1 shows there still life left in an asset, but market participants are reluctant to believe the bull market has begun. Related Reading | Finding Fibonacci: Is Bitcoin Beginning A “Golden” Recovery? Because of the remaining bearish sentiment, wave 2 wipes out most of the progress of wave 1, before wave 3 begins. With lows of wave 1 retested at the climax of wave 2, market participants are more confident in a blossoming bull trend, which is why wave 3 tends to be the longest and strongest. EWT refers to this as a wave “extension.” Wave 4 cannot enter into the path of wave 1 and tend to move sideways. This suggests that it is unlikely to see another sharp correction like what happened on Black Thursday in 2020. Whenever wave 4 officially ends, and whether it has or not is still up for debate, targets of $100,000 per coin remain likely for the peak of wave 5. https:\/\/twitter.com\/tonyspilotroBTC\/status\/15930884 Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join\u00a0the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is\u00a0educational and should not be\u00a0considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":517,"featured_media":477980,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,1119,1144,78790,6664,4524,76835],"class_list":["post-477979","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-btcusd","tag-btcusdt","tag-crypto","tag-xbt","tag-xbtusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin And Omicron: Is Another Black Swan Brewing?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Back in March of 2020, those taking position ahead of the Bitcoin halving were blindsided by the Black Thursday market selloff, driven by panic at the\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market. A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony\u2019s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements. Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions. In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony\u2019s expertise to guide their trading strategies. Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies. Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders. His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics. Tony\u2019s nickname, \"The Bull,\" aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice. In summary, Tony \"The Bull\" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. 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