{"id":481899,"date":"2022-01-25T02:56:01","date_gmt":"2022-01-25T02:56:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=481899"},"modified":"2024-06-11T14:10:51","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T14:10:51","slug":"are-we-in-a-bear-market-glassnode-analyses-the-latest-bitcoin-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/are-we-in-a-bear-market-glassnode-analyses-the-latest-bitcoin-crash\/","title":{"rendered":"Are We In A Bear Market? Glassnode Analyses The Latest Bitcoin Crash"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Let\u2019s cut to the chase: Glassnode thinks we\u2019re in a bear market. In t<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/insights.glassnode.com\/the-week-onchain-week-04-2022\/\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">heir latest \u201cThe Week On-Chain\u201d newsletter<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, the company tries to \u201cestablish the likelihood that a prolonged bear market is in play\u201d by \u201cusing historical investor behaviour, and profitability patterns as our guide.\u201d One thing\u2019s for sure, the recent crash was severe, and \u201csuch a heavy drawdown is likely to change investor perceptions and sentiment at a macro scale.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Related Reading | <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-leads-as-markets-sees-record-outflows-bear-market-incoming\/\">Bitcoin Leads As Markets Sees Record Outflows. Bear Market Incoming?<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">How severe was it? According to Glassnode, \u201cthis is now the second worst sell-off since the 2018-20 bear market, eclipsed only by July 2021, where the market fell -54% from the highs set in April.\u201d Apart from the price, investors \u201ccapitulated over $2.5 Billion in net realised value on-chain this week.\u201d Who were those paper hand investors? \u201cThe lion&#8217;s share of these losses are attributed to Short-Term Holders.\u201d Of course.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Glassnode Points Out The Bear Market Indicators<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The first indicator Glassnode goes for is \u201cThe Net Unrealised Profit\/Loss (NUPL) metric.\u201d Which measures \u201cthe overall market profitability as a proportion of market cap.\u201d How is Bitcoin doing on that front? \u201cNUPL is currently trading at 0.325 which indicates that an equivalent to 32.5% of the Bitcoin market cap is held as an unrealised profit.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-481901 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/02_drawdown-2.png?resize=460%2C265\" alt=\"Price drawdown from ATH - Glassnode\" width=\"460\" height=\"265\"><\/p>\n<pre style=\"text-align: center\">BTC Price Drawdown from ATH | Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/insights.glassnode.com\/the-week-onchain-week-04-2022\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">Glassnode<\/a><\/pre>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">How does this point to a bear market? \u201cConsidering previous cycles, such low profitability is typical in the early to mid phase of a bear market (orange). One could also reasonably argue that a bear market started in May 2021 based on this observation.\u201d This is not enough, though. But Glassnode has more.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The second indicator the company hit us with is \u201cThe MVRV Ratio.\u201d This one \u201cis calculated as the market cap, divided by the realised cap; and is a useful tool for identifying periods of high, and poor investor profitability.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">How does this point to a bear market? \u201cWith a current MVRV-Z reading of 0.85,\u00a0 the market is well within territory visited in bearish markets, and a bearish divergence is noted, similar to the NUPL metric above.\u201d Is this enough? No way. But Glassnode has an ace up its sleeve.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The third indicator is \u201cthe Realised-to-Liveliness Ratio (RTLR).\u201d They use \u201cthe Realised Price using Liveliness in the denominator\u201d to calculate this one.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">How does this point to a bear market? \u201cThe market is now trading below the RTLR price of $39.2k, but above the Realised price of $24.2k. Again, this is often observed during early to mid stage bear markets.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Who Sold And Who Is Still Holding Strong?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">There\u2019s no surprise here. The \u201cShort-Term Holders (STH)\u201d are selling. How does Glassnode define STHs, though? By the age of their coins. \u201cCoins are considered to be owned by STHs when they are younger than ~155-days, and are statistically more likely to be spent in the face of volatility.\u201d No surprise there either.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">It\u2019s worth pointing out that the STH\u2019s coins are \u201ccurrently held at a loss.\u201d In fact, \u201cas of this week, almost the entire STH supply is underwater.\u201d That could be scary for newcomers, so those coins are at risk of being sold. At a loss. These people are going to regret their emotional decisions for life, but that\u2019s a topic for another article.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-481900 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/BTCUSD_2022-01-24_23-41-03.png?resize=460%2C257\" alt=\"BTCUSD price chart for 01\/24\/2022 - TradingView\" width=\"460\" height=\"257\"><\/p>\n<pre style=\"text-align: center\">BTC price chart for 01\/24\/2022 on Oanda | Source: BTC\/USD on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSD\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">TradingView.com<\/a><\/pre>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The other question here is, who\u2019s holding strong? According to Glassnode, \u201cInterestingly, STH supply remains near multi-year lows, which is indicative of their counter-part, the Long-Term Holders (LTHs), who appear impressively unfazed by such a severe drawdown.\u201d Of course. People who already understood the game are not easy to shake.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">How are the LTH\u2019s coins doing? \u201cOver 59.3% of the circulating supply has now been dormant for over 1yr, increasing by 5.8% of circulating supply in the last three months.\u201d This sounds bullish, but Glassnode finds a way to rain on the LTH\u2019s parade. \u201cWhilst a rising, and large proportion of mature coins is generally considered constructive, it once again bears similarities to a bear market, a time when only the HODLers and patient accumulators remain.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Related Reading | <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/analysis\/btc\/bitcoin-bottom-signal-from-bear-market-black-thursday-could-save-the-bull-run\/\">Bitcoin Bottom Signal From Bear Market, Black Thursday Could Save The Bull Run<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Conclusions And Hopium<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">According to Glassnode, one could argue that the \u201cbear market started in May 2021.\u201d Does it feel like a bear market, though? No, it doesn\u2019t. It doesn\u2019t feel like a bull market, either. We may be in a new phase. The Bitcoin cycle might be dead. Or maybe we\u2019re just in a bear market as Glassnode tried to prove. Either way, LTHs are not selling.<\/span><\/p>\n<pre style=\"text-align: center\">Featured Image by <a href=\"https:\/\/unsplash.com\/@mana5280?utm_source=unsplash&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_content=creditCopyText\" rel=\"nofollow\">mana5280<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/unsplash.com\/s\/photos\/bear?utm_source=unsplash&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_content=creditCopyText\" rel=\"nofollow\">Unsplash<\/a>  | Charts by <a href=\"https:\/\/insights.glassnode.com\/the-week-onchain-week-04-2022\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">Glassnode<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Let\u2019s cut to the chase: Glassnode thinks we\u2019re in a bear market. In their latest \u201cThe Week On-Chain\u201d newsletter, the company tries to \u201cestablish the likelihood that a prolonged bear market is in play\u201d by \u201cusing historical investor behaviour, and profitability patterns as our guide.\u201d One thing\u2019s for sure, the recent crash was severe, and \u201csuch a heavy drawdown is likely to change investor perceptions and sentiment at a macro scale.\u201d Related Reading | Bitcoin Leads As Markets Sees Record Outflows. Bear Market Incoming? How severe was it? According to Glassnode, \u201cthis is now the second worst sell-off since the 2018-20 bear market, eclipsed only by July 2021, where the market fell -54% from the highs set in April.\u201d Apart from the price, investors \u201ccapitulated over $2.5 Billion in net realised value on-chain this week.\u201d Who were those paper hand investors? \u201cThe lion&#8217;s share of these losses are attributed to Short-Term Holders.\u201d Of course. Glassnode Points Out The Bear Market Indicators The first indicator Glassnode goes for is \u201cThe Net Unrealised Profit\/Loss (NUPL) metric.\u201d Which measures \u201cthe overall market profitability as a proportion of market cap.\u201d How is Bitcoin doing on that front? \u201cNUPL is currently trading at 0.325 which indicates that an equivalent to 32.5% of the Bitcoin market cap is held as an unrealised profit.\u201d BTC Price Drawdown from ATH | Source: Glassnode How does this point to a bear market? \u201cConsidering previous cycles, such low profitability is typical in the early to mid phase of a bear market (orange). One could also reasonably argue that a bear market started in May 2021 based on this observation.\u201d This is not enough, though. But Glassnode has more. The second indicator the company hit us with is \u201cThe MVRV Ratio.\u201d This one \u201cis calculated as the market cap, divided by the realised cap; and is a useful tool for identifying periods of high, and poor investor profitability.\u201d How does this point to a bear market? \u201cWith a current MVRV-Z reading of 0.85,\u00a0 the market is well within territory visited in bearish markets, and a bearish divergence is noted, similar to the NUPL metric above.\u201d Is this enough? No way. But Glassnode has an ace up its sleeve. The third indicator is \u201cthe Realised-to-Liveliness Ratio (RTLR).\u201d They use \u201cthe Realised Price using Liveliness in the denominator\u201d to calculate this one.\u00a0 How does this point to a bear market? \u201cThe market is now trading below the RTLR price of $39.2k, but above the Realised price of $24.2k. Again, this is often observed during early to mid stage bear markets.\u201d Who Sold And Who Is Still Holding Strong? There\u2019s no surprise here. The \u201cShort-Term Holders (STH)\u201d are selling. How does Glassnode define STHs, though? By the age of their coins. \u201cCoins are considered to be owned by STHs when they are younger than ~155-days, and are statistically more likely to be spent in the face of volatility.\u201d No surprise there either. It\u2019s worth pointing out that the STH\u2019s coins are \u201ccurrently held at a loss.\u201d In fact, \u201cas of this week, almost the entire STH supply is underwater.\u201d That could be scary for newcomers, so those coins are at risk of being sold. At a loss. These people are going to regret their emotional decisions for life, but that\u2019s a topic for another article. BTC price chart for 01\/24\/2022 on Oanda | Source: BTC\/USD on TradingView.com The other question here is, who\u2019s holding strong? According to Glassnode, \u201cInterestingly, STH supply remains near multi-year lows, which is indicative of their counter-part, the Long-Term Holders (LTHs), who appear impressively unfazed by such a severe drawdown.\u201d Of course. People who already understood the game are not easy to shake. How are the LTH\u2019s coins doing? \u201cOver 59.3% of the circulating supply has now been dormant for over 1yr, increasing by 5.8% of circulating supply in the last three months.\u201d This sounds bullish, but Glassnode finds a way to rain on the LTH\u2019s parade. \u201cWhilst a rising, and large proportion of mature coins is generally considered constructive, it once again bears similarities to a bear market, a time when only the HODLers and patient accumulators remain.\u201d Related Reading | Bitcoin Bottom Signal From Bear Market, Black Thursday Could Save The Bull Run Conclusions And Hopium According to Glassnode, one could argue that the \u201cbear market started in May 2021.\u201d Does it feel like a bear market, though? No, it doesn\u2019t. It doesn\u2019t feel like a bull market, either. We may be in a new phase. The Bitcoin cycle might be dead. Or maybe we\u2019re just in a bear market as Glassnode tried to prove. Either way, LTHs are not selling. Featured Image by mana5280 on Unsplash | Charts by Glassnode and TradingView<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":539,"featured_media":481902,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[5687,428,506,12672,19371,61309,85271,84109,85272,85270,38143,84108,85273,85274,85269],"class_list":["post-481899","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bear-market","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-crash","tag-bull-market","tag-capitulation","tag-glassnode","tag-heavy-drawdown","tag-long-term-holders","tag-net-unrealised-profit-loss","tag-newsletter","tag-on-chain-analysis","tag-short-term-holders","tag-the-mvrv-ratio","tag-the-realised-to-liveliness-ratio","tag-the-week-on-chain"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>Are We In A Bear Market? Glassnode Analyses The Latest Bitcoin Crash<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Let\u2019s cut to the chase: Glassnode thinks we\u2019re in a bear market. In their latest \u201cThe Week On-Chain\u201d newsletter, the company tries to \u201cestablish the\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/are-we-in-a-bear-market-glassnode-analyses-the-latest-bitcoin-crash\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Are We In A Bear Market? Glassnode Analyses The Latest Bitcoin Crash\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Let\u2019s cut to the chase: Glassnode thinks we\u2019re in a bear market. 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