{"id":484049,"date":"2022-02-18T18:00:29","date_gmt":"2022-02-18T18:00:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=484049"},"modified":"2024-06-11T14:11:40","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T14:11:40","slug":"comparing-apples-growth-with-bitcoin-why-this-expert-sets-700k-as-long-term-goal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/comparing-apples-growth-with-bitcoin-why-this-expert-sets-700k-as-long-term-goal\/","title":{"rendered":"Comparing Apple’s Growth With Bitcoin, Why This Expert Sets $700K As Long-Term Goal"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin could be back on a downtrend as the bulls struggle to protect the $40,000 mark. The first crypto by market cap was rejected at around $44,500 and has been unable to reclaim previous highs as the bears threaten with pushing it back to the lows around $30,000.<\/p>\n

Related Reading | Monero (XMR) Price Slides As Canada Includes Crypto In Emergencies Act<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

As of press time, the first crypto by market cap trades at $40,160 with a 5.1% and 8.8% loss in the last day and 7 days, respectively.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC bulls defending $40,000 on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The general sentiment in the crypto market has been quickly changing from fear to greed as Bitcoin shows signs of strength on low timeframes.<\/p>\n

However, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Macro for Fidelity, believes BTC\u2019s price has remained rangebound since 2021 with a low at $30,000 and a high around $65,000. He believes the current price action is \u201cmostly noise\u201d and proposed a change in perspective.<\/p>\n

As seen below, Timmer presented<\/a> the Bitcoin demand curve as driven by the increase in the number of addresses holding a BTC balance above 0. This chart is going \u201cup and to the right\u201d, the expert said and suggests BTC will continue to see an increase in demand which could increase its market cap from its current $755 billion to $15 trillion by the end of the decade.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Source: Jurrien Timmer via Twitter<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Turrien arrived at this conclusion by comparing Bitcoin to big tech company Apple and its network growth by applying Metcalfe\u2019s Law. This principle states that the value of a telecommunications network is equivalent to two times its number of users.<\/p>\n

By using this Law, Timmer deducted Apple\u2019s estimated price and valuation from 1996 until today. In that period, Apple\u2019s market cap and valuation were expected to grow by 53x, but the company presents a 1699x increase surpassing expectations by a long margin. Timmer said:<\/p>\n

If Apple\u2019s increase in market value should have been roughly the square of its growth in sales (53 to the power of 2), then we get an expected growth rate of 2855x for Apple\u2019s market value. At 1699x, it\u2019s in the ballpark.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Why Bitcoin Could Hit A $700K Price In The Next Decade<\/h2>\n

Conversely, Apple\u2019s price has increased by around 1457x, Timmer said, since 1996 with a 30x increase in its price-to-sales ratio. By extrapolating the thesis to Bitcoin, the expert offered a prediction for its valuation. Timmer said:<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s valuation has increased 867x since 2011, while its price has increased 640,633x. If we apply Metcalfe\u2019s Law and calculate the square of 867, we get 751,111. This is roughly in line with the 640,633x realized price gain.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Although Bitcoin and Apple are very different assets, the expert believes they are on a \u201csimilar path\u201d when considering their network growth. As seen below, both Apple\u2019s share and BTC\u2019s price saw a massive appreciation in their very early stage.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Source: Jurrien Timmer via Twitter<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Related Reading |<\/strong> TA: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Why BTC Could Dive Below $40K<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Timmer concluded with two scenarios for the Bitcoin demand curve, they differ on their slopes\u201d, the expert said, but aim at a similar long term growth with BTC\u2019s price rising above $1 million after the year 2035.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin could be back on a downtrend as the bulls struggle to protect the $40,000 mark. The first crypto by market cap was rejected at around $44,500 and has been unable to reclaim previous highs as the bears threaten with pushing it back to the lows around $30,000. Related Reading | Monero (XMR) Price Slides As Canada Includes Crypto In Emergencies Act As of press time, the first crypto by market cap trades at $40,160 with a 5.1% and 8.8% loss in the last day and 7 days, respectively. The general sentiment in the crypto market has been quickly changing from fear to greed as Bitcoin shows signs of strength on low timeframes. However, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Macro for Fidelity, believes BTC\u2019s price has remained rangebound since 2021 with a low at $30,000 and a high around $65,000. He believes the current price action is \u201cmostly noise\u201d and proposed a change in perspective. As seen below, Timmer presented the Bitcoin demand curve as driven by the increase in the number of addresses holding a BTC balance above 0. This chart is going \u201cup and to the right\u201d, the expert said and suggests BTC will continue to see an increase in demand which could increase its market cap from its current $755 billion to $15 trillion by the end of the decade. Turrien arrived at this conclusion by comparing Bitcoin to big tech company Apple and its network growth by applying Metcalfe\u2019s Law. This principle states that the value of a telecommunications network is equivalent to two times its number of users. By using this Law, Timmer deducted Apple\u2019s estimated price and valuation from 1996 until today. In that period, Apple\u2019s market cap and valuation were expected to grow by 53x, but the company presents a 1699x increase surpassing expectations by a long margin. Timmer said: If Apple\u2019s increase in market value should have been roughly the square of its growth in sales (53 to the power of 2), then we get an expected growth rate of 2855x for Apple\u2019s market value. At 1699x, it\u2019s in the ballpark. Why Bitcoin Could Hit A $700K Price In The Next Decade Conversely, Apple\u2019s price has increased by around 1457x, Timmer said, since 1996 with a 30x increase in its price-to-sales ratio. By extrapolating the thesis to Bitcoin, the expert offered a prediction for its valuation. Timmer said: Bitcoin\u2019s valuation has increased 867x since 2011, while its price has increased 640,633x. If we apply Metcalfe\u2019s Law and calculate the square of 867, we get 751,111. This is roughly in line with the 640,633x realized price gain. Although Bitcoin and Apple are very different assets, the expert believes they are on a \u201csimilar path\u201d when considering their network growth. As seen below, both Apple\u2019s share and BTC\u2019s price saw a massive appreciation in their very early stage. Related Reading | TA: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Why BTC Could Dive Below $40K Timmer concluded with two scenarios for the Bitcoin demand curve, they differ on their slopes\u201d, the expert said, but aim at a similar long term growth with BTC\u2019s price rising above $1 million after the year 2035.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":535,"featured_media":484052,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-484049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nComparing Apple With Bitcoin, Expert Sets $700K As Long-Term Goal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jurrien Timmer Director of Macro for Fidely compares Bitcoin to Apple network growth to predict 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Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times. In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson\u2019s \u2018Neuromancer.\u2019 The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau\u2019s \u2018Civil Disobedience.\u2019 But that\u2019s for another life. 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His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide. In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride. He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times. In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson\u2019s \u2018Neuromancer.\u2019 The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau\u2019s \u2018Civil Disobedience.\u2019 But that\u2019s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term. In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry. Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. 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