{"id":484505,"date":"2022-02-24T23:00:03","date_gmt":"2022-02-24T23:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=484505"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:17:14","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:17:14","slug":"bitcoin-monthly-cyclicality-paints-grim-picture-for-last-week-of-february","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-monthly-cyclicality-paints-grim-picture-for-last-week-of-february\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Monthly Cyclicality Paints Grim Picture For Last Week Of February"},"content":{"rendered":"
For the past year, bitcoin has shown a cyclicality that has been on a semi-regular basis. For most of last year, most months had finished in the positive with green candles dominating the market. However, while most of the months have been positive, there have been significant differences between the first half of the month and the second half. This push and pull pattern has continued into the new year, spelling some bad news for the end of February.<\/p>\n
Eight months out of the last 14 months have been recording positive returns mid-month. Across these eight months, the returns have not carried on to the end of the month for five months, leaving only three months that saw positive mid-month to end-month returns. Most of bitcoin\u2019s gains have been recorded occurring in the first half of the month, while the second half usually suffered losses.<\/p>\n
Related Reading |\u00a0False Safe Haven: Bitcoin Correlation With S&P 500 Hits ATH<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n These periods of gains and losses usually coincide with the CME future expires which usually occur mid-month. And from mid-month to the next expiry date, the pattern usually plays out as illustrated in the chart below.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Following this pattern for the past year would put a trader in significant profit over the past year. That is if they purchased the digital assets when the CME futures were expiring and subsequently sold the next mid-month. The reverse would put a trader in over 50% loss from their initial investment, indicating that timing the CME futures expiry and following bitcoin\u2019s cyclicality could be a favorable strategy.<\/p>\n Given that this cyclicality has carried on into 2022, then the last week of February may see the digital asset end on a low note. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are already being rocked by social and political issues, most recently, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. These have seen the digital asset plummet towards $35,000, giving bears a complete hold of the market.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n For the first half of February, bitcoin had recorded 17% growth. But from mid-month to the end of the month, it has turned down, with over 12% losses already being recorded. If this pattern continues, then bitcoin is looking at another week of losses before ushering in the month of March. This would mean that the digital asset could see significant growth from the beginning of March till mid-month.<\/p>\n Related Reading |\u00a0Data Says Bitcoin Holds Up To Macro Turmoil Better Than Altcoins<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\nBTC monthly cyclicality shows interesting pattern | Source: Arcane Research<\/a><\/pre>\n
February End Not Looking Good For Bitcoin<\/h2>\n
BTC recovers above $35K | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/pre>\n