{"id":498683,"date":"2022-08-14T19:00:51","date_gmt":"2022-08-14T19:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=498683"},"modified":"2024-06-11T06:57:35","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T06:57:35","slug":"quant-explains-bitcoin-nupl-cycles-less-volatile","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/quant-explains-bitcoin-nupl-cycles-less-volatile\/","title":{"rendered":"Quant Explains How Bitcoin NUPL Cycles Are Getting Less Volatile With Time"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin NUPL data suggests that the crypto’s cycles are getting less sharper with time as profit tops and loss bottoms aren’t following a horizontal line.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin NUPL Didn’t Exceed The 0.75 “Greed” Mark During This Cycle<\/h2>\n

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post<\/a>, the BTC profit and loss cycles shouldn’t be treated with horizontal lines.<\/p>\n

The “Net Unrealized Profit and Loss<\/a>” (or the NUPL in brief) is an indicator that tells us whether the market as a whole is holding a net profit or a net loss right now.<\/p>\n

The metric’s value is calculated by taking the difference between the market cap and the realized cap<\/a>, and dividing it by the market cap.<\/p>\n

NUPL = (Market Cap – Realized Cap) \u00f7 Market Cap<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

When the value of this indicator is greater than zero, it means the average investor is currently holding some profits.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, negative NUPL values imply the overall market is holding a net amount of unrealized loss at the moment.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Ethereum Market Observes Pileup Of Leverage As ETH Breaks $2k<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/div>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NUPL over the course of the history of the crypto:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Looks like the value of the metric has surged up and turned positive again recently | Source: CryptoQuant<\/a><\/pre>\n
As you can see in the above graph, the quant has marked the relevant zones of trend for the Bitcoin NUPL indicator.<\/p>\n
In the past, many traders used to believe that cycle tops form whenever the metric’s value surges above 0.75, entering into the “greed” zone.<\/p>\n
Similarly, bottoms were thought to take place when the indicator went below the -0.4 mark, reaching into the “fear” region.<\/p>\n
Related Reading:  Bitcoin Bearish Signal: Whales With 1k-10k BTC Depositing To Exchanges<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/div>\n
However, the analyst from the post argues that horizontal lines like these shouldn’t be used to mark these cycle tops and bottoms.<\/p>\n
During the previous two cycles, the top that came after was lower than the one before. In the current cycle, the metric never crossed into the greed zone and topped out just around the 0.75 level. This could mean that tops are getting lower and lower with each cycle.<\/p>\n
Similarly, the last two bottoms also had descending loss amounts. Just a while ago, the NUPL’s value sharply dropped off into negative and subsequently rebounded back up into positive values after forming a potential bottom. However, this low was far from the conventional 0.4 mark.<\/p>\n
If this low was truly the bottom for this cycle, then it would add further credence to the idea that profit and loss fluctuations in the market are getting less drastic with time.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price<\/a> floats around $24.4k, up 5% in the past week.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
The value of the crypto seems to have been moving sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bitcoin NUPL data suggests that the crypto’s cycles are getting less sharper with time as profit tops and loss bottoms aren’t following a horizontal line. Bitcoin NUPL Didn’t Exceed The 0.75 “Greed” Mark During This Cycle As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC profit and loss cycles shouldn’t be treated with horizontal lines. The “Net Unrealized Profit and Loss” (or the NUPL in brief) is an indicator that tells us whether the market as a whole is holding a net profit or a net loss right now. The metric’s value is calculated by taking the difference between the market cap and the realized cap, and dividing it by the market cap. NUPL = (Market Cap – Realized Cap) \u00f7 Market Cap When the value of this indicator is greater than zero, it means the average investor is currently holding some profits. On the other hand, negative NUPL values imply the overall market is holding a net amount of unrealized loss at the moment. Related Reading: Ethereum Market Observes Pileup Of Leverage As ETH Breaks $2k Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NUPL over the course of the history of the crypto: Looks like the value of the metric has surged up and turned positive again recently | Source: CryptoQuant As you can see in the above graph, the quant has marked the relevant zones of trend for the Bitcoin NUPL indicator. In the past, many traders used to believe that cycle tops form whenever the metric’s value surges above 0.75, entering into the “greed” zone. Similarly, bottoms were thought to take place when the indicator went below the -0.4 mark, reaching into the “fear” region. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bearish Signal: Whales With 1k-10k BTC Depositing To Exchanges However, the analyst from the post argues that horizontal lines like these shouldn’t be used to mark these cycle tops and bottoms. During the previous two cycles, the top that came after was lower than the one before. In the current cycle, the metric never crossed into the greed zone and topped out just around the 0.75 level. This could mean that tops are getting lower and lower with each cycle. Similarly, the last two bottoms also had descending loss amounts. Just a while ago, the NUPL’s value sharply dropped off into negative and subsequently rebounded back up into positive values after forming a potential bottom. However, this low was far from the conventional 0.4 mark. If this low was truly the bottom for this cycle, then it would add further credence to the idea that profit and loss fluctuations in the market are getting less drastic with time. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $24.4k, up 5% in the past week. The value of the crypto seems to have been moving sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":498687,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,86606,84916,86607,790,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-498683","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-cycle","tag-bitcoin-nupl","tag-bitcoin-nupl-cycle","tag-bitcoin-volatility","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nQuant Explains How Bitcoin NUPL Cycles Are Getting Less Volatile With Time<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin NUPL data suggests that the crypto's cycles are getting less sharper with 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Quant Explains How Bitcoin NUPL Cycles Are Getting Less Volatile With Time","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/quant-explains-bitcoin-nupl-cycles-less-volatile\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/quant-explains-bitcoin-nupl-cycles-less-volatile\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/kanchanara-JswpRvKR-oE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/kanchanara-JswpRvKR-oE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin cycle","bitcoin nupl","bitcoin nupl cycle","bitcoin volatility","btc","btcusd"],"dateCreated":"2022-08-14T19:00:51Z","datePublished":"2022-08-14T19:00:51Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T06:57:35Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Quant Explains How Bitcoin NUPL Cycles Are Getting Less Volatile With Time\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/quant-explains-bitcoin-nupl-cycles-less-volatile\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/quant-explains-bitcoin-nupl-cycles-less-volatile\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/08\\\/kanchanara-JswpRvKR-oE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/08\\\/kanchanara-JswpRvKR-oE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin cycle\",\"bitcoin nupl\",\"bitcoin nupl cycle\",\"bitcoin volatility\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2022-08-14T19:00:51Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-08-14T19:00:51Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T06:57:35Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/kanchanara-JswpRvKR-oE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/498683"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=498683"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/498683\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/498687"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=498683"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=498683"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=498683"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}