{"id":507718,"date":"2022-10-25T09:56:52","date_gmt":"2022-10-25T09:56:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=507718"},"modified":"2024-06-11T14:27:58","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T14:27:58","slug":"bitcoin-volatility-shrinks-to-all-time-lows-what-to-expect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-volatility-shrinks-to-all-time-lows-what-to-expect\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Volatility Shrinks To All-Time Lows – What To Expect"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bitcoin price is currently so stable that some experts are already jokingly comparing it to a stablecoin. However, from a historical perspective, this low volatility level carries a lot of risk. As Glassnode reports, BTC is trading in an incredibly small range of $869, separating the weekly low and high by just 4.6%.<\/p>\n

Glassnode looks at these bearish risks but also bullish opportunities in its new weekly report<\/a>. Periods of extremely low volatility have been very rare in Bitcoin’s history<\/a>. Ultimately, there has either been an extremely strong move up or down.<\/p>\n

The Bear Case For The Bitcoin Price<\/h2>\n

On the bear side, historically low on-chain usage reveals some parallels to 2018’s bear market.<\/p>\n

The growth rate of non-zero balance addresses has stagnated since August. Transfer volume in USD has also slumped to $19.2 billion per day, below the December 2017 transfer volume peak and only slightly above the May-July 2021 lows.<\/p>\n

As NewsBTC reported<\/a> yesterday, miner capitulation is currently the biggest intra-market risk. According to Glassnode, the hash price has fallen to an all-time low of $66.5k\/day per exahash deployed.<\/p>\n

With Hash Price now falling below the post 2020 halving lows, despite coin prices being ~2x, this demonstrates just how extreme the recent increase in hashrate competition has become.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In addition, Glassnode estimates that miners’ balances have increased 10-fold since 2019 and now total 78.2k BTC, which equates to $1.509 billion at a price of $19.3k.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin\u2019s Biggest Intra-Market Risk Right Now \u2013 What You Need To Know<\/a><\/div>\n

The current evolving combination of miners on the brink of profitability and an enormously high inventory of BTC with thin order books, historically low demand, and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty make for an explosive cocktail that should not be underestimated.<\/p>\n

The Bull Case<\/h2>\n

However, there are also good arguments for a bull case. First and foremost, HODLers continue to show very strong conviction and have reached an all-time high in coin ownership while “steadfastly” refusing to put coins on the market.<\/p>\n

Reserves held on crypto exchanges<\/a> are also shrinking relentlessly and are currently at January 2018 levels, while more than $3 billion per month in stablecoin buying power is flowing in.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: ARK Invest\u2019s Cathie Wood Puts Bitcoin At $1 Million In 8 Years, Here\u2019s Why<\/a><\/div>\n

Likewise, other on-chain data points to a continued period of accumulation. Both smaller investors (< 1 BTC) and whales (up to 10,000 BTC) have changed their behavior to net accumulation and increase.<\/p>\n

The same is true when looking at Short-Term Holders (STHs). The volume of coins passing to new buyers at prices between $18,000 and $20,000 is increasing significantly. Glassnode concluded it bullish thesis by saying:<\/p>\n

The bullish case for Bitcoin at present is one of unwavering conviction, and persistent balance growth by the HODLer cohort. Liquid coins continue to flow out of exchanges, relative stablecoin buying power is increasing, and extreme volatility and severe downside has thus far failed to shake out Bitcoins most die-hard believers.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

At presstime, BTC continued to trade in its incredibly narrow range.<\/p>\n

\"BTC
Bitcoin volatility dries up. Source: TradingView<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Bitcoin price is currently so stable that some experts are already jokingly comparing it to a stablecoin. However, from a historical perspective, this low volatility level carries a lot of risk. As Glassnode reports, BTC is trading in an incredibly small range of $869, separating the weekly low and high by just 4.6%. Glassnode looks at these bearish risks but also bullish opportunities in its new weekly report. Periods of extremely low volatility have been very rare in Bitcoin’s history. Ultimately, there has either been an extremely strong move up or down. The Bear Case For The Bitcoin Price On the bear side, historically low on-chain usage reveals some parallels to 2018’s bear market. The growth rate of non-zero balance addresses has stagnated since August. Transfer volume in USD has also slumped to $19.2 billion per day, below the December 2017 transfer volume peak and only slightly above the May-July 2021 lows. As NewsBTC reported yesterday, miner capitulation is currently the biggest intra-market risk. According to Glassnode, the hash price has fallen to an all-time low of $66.5k\/day per exahash deployed. With Hash Price now falling below the post 2020 halving lows, despite coin prices being ~2x, this demonstrates just how extreme the recent increase in hashrate competition has become. In addition, Glassnode estimates that miners’ balances have increased 10-fold since 2019 and now total 78.2k BTC, which equates to $1.509 billion at a price of $19.3k. Related Reading: Bitcoin\u2019s Biggest Intra-Market Risk Right Now \u2013 What You Need To Know The current evolving combination of miners on the brink of profitability and an enormously high inventory of BTC with thin order books, historically low demand, and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty make for an explosive cocktail that should not be underestimated. The Bull Case However, there are also good arguments for a bull case. First and foremost, HODLers continue to show very strong conviction and have reached an all-time high in coin ownership while “steadfastly” refusing to put coins on the market. Reserves held on crypto exchanges are also shrinking relentlessly and are currently at January 2018 levels, while more than $3 billion per month in stablecoin buying power is flowing in. Related Reading: ARK Invest\u2019s Cathie Wood Puts Bitcoin At $1 Million In 8 Years, Here\u2019s Why Likewise, other on-chain data points to a continued period of accumulation. Both smaller investors (< 1 BTC) and whales (up to 10,000 BTC) have changed their behavior to net accumulation and increase. The same is true when looking at Short-Term Holders (STHs). The volume of coins passing to new buyers at prices between $18,000 and $20,000 is increasing significantly. Glassnode concluded it bullish thesis by saying: The bullish case for Bitcoin at present is one of unwavering conviction, and persistent balance growth by the HODLer cohort. Liquid coins continue to flow out of exchanges, relative stablecoin buying power is increasing, and extreme volatility and severe downside has thus far failed to shake out Bitcoins most die-hard believers. At presstime, BTC continued to trade in its incredibly narrow range.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":503874,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,1119],"class_list":["post-507718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Volatility Shrinks To All-Time Lows - What To Expect<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Bitcoin price is currently almost as stable as a stablecoin. 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Through his extensive work with wncen.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. 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His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/realJakeSimmons"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/marcusmisiak\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Bitcoin Volatility Shrinks To All-Time Lows – What To Expect","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-volatility-shrinks-to-all-time-lows-what-to-expect\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-volatility-shrinks-to-all-time-lows-what-to-expect\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/bitcoin-6.jpeg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/bitcoin-6.jpeg?fit=1200%2C630"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Jake Simmons"}],"creator":["Jake Simmons"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","btc"],"dateCreated":"2022-10-25T09:56:52Z","datePublished":"2022-10-25T09:56:52Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T14:27:58Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Bitcoin Volatility Shrinks To All-Time Lows – What To Expect\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-volatility-shrinks-to-all-time-lows-what-to-expect\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-volatility-shrinks-to-all-time-lows-what-to-expect\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/09\\\/bitcoin-6.jpeg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/09\\\/bitcoin-6.jpeg?fit=1200%2C630\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Jake Simmons\"}],\"creator\":[\"Jake Simmons\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"btc\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2022-10-25T09:56:52Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-10-25T09:56:52Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T14:27:58Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/bitcoin-6.jpeg?fit=1200%2C630","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/507718"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/571"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=507718"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/507718\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/503874"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=507718"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=507718"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=507718"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}