{"id":512452,"date":"2022-12-15T08:00:53","date_gmt":"2022-12-15T13:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=512452"},"modified":"2024-06-11T09:07:24","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T09:07:24","slug":"why-bitcoin-bearish-divergence-spell-doom-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/why-bitcoin-bearish-divergence-spell-doom-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"Why This Bitcoin Bearish Divergence Could Spell Doom For BTC Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"

A quant has explained how this bearish divergence in Bitcoin on-chain data can lead to a short-term correction in the price.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Has Been Slowing Down Despite Price Going Up<\/h2>\n

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post<\/a>, a gap has been forming in the purchasing power of short-term holders and the BTC price. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio<\/a>” (SOPR), which tells us whether investors in the Bitcoin market are selling their coins at a profit or at a loss right now.<\/p>\n

When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the overall market is realizing some amount of profit currently. On the other hand, values below the threshold suggest the average holder is seeing some loss at the moment. Naturally, the indicator at exactly equal to 1 implies the investors are just breaking-even on their investment.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Ethereum Active Addresses At Highest Since May 2021, Good News For ETH?<\/a><\/div>\n

The “short-term holder<\/a>” (STH) group is a Bitcoin cohort that includes all investors who bought their coins less than 155 days ago. The STH SOPR thus measures the profit ratio of selling being done by these holders. To properly assess the behavior of this group, the analyst is using a “rate of change” (ROC) oscillator for the indicator. Here is a chart comparing this momentum oscillator with the BTC price over the last few months:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Looks like the metric has been going down in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant<\/a><\/pre>\n
As the above graph shows, the ROC of the Bitcoin STH SOPR had been in deep red when the FTX crash<\/a> took place, suggesting that these investors capitulated during it and realized a large amount of loss. However, as the BTC price has slowly improved from the lows, the ROC has become green. This implies that the STHs who bought during the lows have been selling for profits, leading to a rising SOPR.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin has continued to see an uptrend recently, but strangely, the STH SOPR ROC has been dropping off. This could be a sign that not many STHs were able to buy during these lows, hinting that their purchasing power is low at the moment. If they had been buying through this rally, they would have continued to harvest more and more profits as the price goes up, but that has clearly not been the case.<\/p>\n
Related Reading:  Bitcoin Price Crystal Ball \u2013 What Happens To BTC After Christmas 2022?<\/a><\/div>\n
Such a divergence also formed in the relief rally seen earlier in the bear market, as the quant has marked in the chart. “Last time, this situation led to a bearish correction,” notes the analyst. “If this alignment repeats, then this time, Bitcoin may correct to the $16,500-$17,000 range.”<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
BTC surges up | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $17,700, up 5% in the last week.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A quant has explained how this bearish divergence in Bitcoin on-chain data can lead to a short-term correction in the price. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Has Been Slowing Down Despite Price Going Up As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, a gap has been forming in the purchasing power of short-term holders and the BTC price. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR), which tells us whether investors in the Bitcoin market are selling their coins at a profit or at a loss right now. When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the overall market is realizing some amount of profit currently. On the other hand, values below the threshold suggest the average holder is seeing some loss at the moment. Naturally, the indicator at exactly equal to 1 implies the investors are just breaking-even on their investment. Related Reading: Ethereum Active Addresses At Highest Since May 2021, Good News For ETH? The “short-term holder” (STH) group is a Bitcoin cohort that includes all investors who bought their coins less than 155 days ago. The STH SOPR thus measures the profit ratio of selling being done by these holders. To properly assess the behavior of this group, the analyst is using a “rate of change” (ROC) oscillator for the indicator. Here is a chart comparing this momentum oscillator with the BTC price over the last few months: Looks like the metric has been going down in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As the above graph shows, the ROC of the Bitcoin STH SOPR had been in deep red when the FTX crash took place, suggesting that these investors capitulated during it and realized a large amount of loss. However, as the BTC price has slowly improved from the lows, the ROC has become green. This implies that the STHs who bought during the lows have been selling for profits, leading to a rising SOPR. Bitcoin has continued to see an uptrend recently, but strangely, the STH SOPR ROC has been dropping off. This could be a sign that not many STHs were able to buy during these lows, hinting that their purchasing power is low at the moment. If they had been buying through this rally, they would have continued to harvest more and more profits as the price goes up, but that has clearly not been the case. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crystal Ball \u2013 What Happens To BTC After Christmas 2022? Such a divergence also formed in the relief rally seen earlier in the bear market, as the quant has marked in the chart. “Last time, this situation led to a bearish correction,” notes the analyst. “If this alignment repeats, then this time, Bitcoin may correct to the $16,500-$17,000 range.” BTC surges up | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $17,700, up 5% in the last week.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":512460,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,461,87425,6481,84852,84438,85802,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-512452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bearish","tag-bitcoin-bearish-divergence","tag-bitcoin-rally","tag-bitcoin-short-term-holders","tag-bitcoin-sopr","tag-bitcoin-sth-sopr","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy This Bitcoin Bearish Divergence Could Spell Doom For BTC Rally<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A quant has explained how this bearish divergence in Bitcoin on-chain data can lead to a short-term correction in the price. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Why This Bitcoin Bearish Divergence Could Spell Doom For BTC Rally","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/why-bitcoin-bearish-divergence-spell-doom-rally\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/why-bitcoin-bearish-divergence-spell-doom-rally\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/hans-jurgen-mager-qQWV91TTBrE-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/hans-jurgen-mager-qQWV91TTBrE-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1707"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin bearish","bitcoin bearish divergence","bitcoin rally","bitcoin short-term holders","bitcoin sopr","bitcoin sth sopr","btc","btcusd"],"dateCreated":"2022-12-15T13:00:53Z","datePublished":"2022-12-15T13:00:53Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T09:07:24Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Why This Bitcoin Bearish Divergence Could Spell Doom For BTC Rally\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/why-bitcoin-bearish-divergence-spell-doom-rally\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/why-bitcoin-bearish-divergence-spell-doom-rally\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/12\\\/hans-jurgen-mager-qQWV91TTBrE-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/12\\\/hans-jurgen-mager-qQWV91TTBrE-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1707\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin bearish\",\"bitcoin bearish divergence\",\"bitcoin rally\",\"bitcoin short-term holders\",\"bitcoin sopr\",\"bitcoin sth sopr\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2022-12-15T13:00:53Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-12-15T13:00:53Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T09:07:24Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/hans-jurgen-mager-qQWV91TTBrE-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1707","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/512452"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=512452"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/512452\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/512460"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=512452"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=512452"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=512452"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}