{"id":512623,"date":"2022-12-16T07:20:00","date_gmt":"2022-12-16T12:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=512623"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:08:20","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:08:20","slug":"bitcoin-miner-capitulation-is-exaggerated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-miner-capitulation-is-exaggerated\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Is An Exaggerated Fear, Analyst Claims"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jaran Mellerud of Hashrate Index recently released a ‘comprehensive analysis’ on the thesis that a Bitcoin miner capitulation could put massive selling pressure on the market, causing a crash.\u00a0 The topic has been a recurring part of the discussion in recent weeks as to whether the BTC bear market could be prolonged by the tight mining industry.<\/p>\n

Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments stated two weeks ago that miner capitulation has begun<\/a>, as indicated by hash ribbons. Investment giant VanEck also recently published<\/a> an analysis that the bear market could extend into the second quarter of 2023 due to miner capitulation. The company predicted that BTC could bottom at $10,000 to $12,000 in Q1 2023.<\/p>\n

Mellerud counters this assumption by saying that the miners’ total BTC holdings are not significant enough to move the spot market.<\/p>\n

Are Bitcoin Miners Not As Powerful As Believed?<\/h2>\n

The Hashrate Index analyst writes <\/a>that all miners must collectively own a significant portion of the circulating supply to have a meaningful impact. However, the question of the number of their holdings is a great mystery, although estimates do exist.<\/p>\n

On-chain data providers such as CoinMetrics and Glassnode provide the best-known guesses, by grouping wallet addresses according to their proximity to the Coinbase transaction. Mellerud claims that these numbers likely significantly overestimate miners’ Bitcoin holdings. CoinMetrics estimates 820,000 BTC for all miners worldwide.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Why BTC Could Still Tumble Below $16K<\/a><\/div>\n

Another possibility is to derive the number from the Bitcoin holdings of public miners. Using these figures, Mellerud estimates 470,000 Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

With 19.2 million BTC currently in circulation, miners thus hold only between 2% and 4%. “The public’s image of miners as enormous bitcoin holders and influential market participants might have been accurate ten years ago […]. Times have changed, and miners no longer hold a meaningful share of the Bitcoin supply,” Mellerud claims.<\/p>\n

BTC Holdings By Miners Vs. Spot Volume<\/h2>\n

However, in terms of potential selling pressure, it is also important to know the size of the spot market to find out how well the market can absorb the selling pressure. According to Mellerud, the best way to estimate the absolute selling pressure of miners is to look at how much BTC they receive each day.<\/p>\n

Generally speaking, about 900 freshly minted Bitcoins flow into miners’ wallets every day. When miners sell less than 100% of their production, they accumulate Bitcoin; when they sell more than 100%, they reduce their holdings.<\/p>\n

The chart below shows that Bitcoin sales by miners peaked in June when they sold 350% of their production. For the rest of the year, the rate was 150% at maximum.<\/p>\n

\"Public
Public miners: BTC sold by month. Source: Hashrate Index<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Using Binance spot volume, Mellerud shows in the chart below that a selling pressure of 100% of the production accounts for only 0.2% of the spot volume. At 200%, it represents only 0.4%, and at 300%, it is still only 0.6% of the total volume. Mellerud concludes:<\/p>\n

Due to the small share of Bitcoin miners’ hypothetical volume compared to Bitcoin’s total spot volume, we see that Bitcoin should have more than enough liquidity in its spot market to accommodate the selling pressure from miners.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"Miners
Miners potential btc sales as share of daily spot volume. Source: Hashrate Index<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In a worst-case scenario by Mellerud, in which all miners dump their entire holdings within 30 days (equally distributed over all days), the selling pressure of 470,000 BTC (4,900 BTC per day) would only amount to 1% of the total spot volume.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Poised To Continue Its Rally As Whales Turn Bullish After 14 Months<\/a><\/div>\n

Only if the holdings actually amount to 820,000 BTC and they were all liquidated within 30 days, it might lead to a crash in the Bitcoin price, Mellerud says. Miners would then account for nearly 7% of the spot volume.<\/p>\n

The Bitcoin price is currently experiencing a plunge of around 3.5% within the last few hours. At press time, BTC was trading at $17,035.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC price, 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jaran Mellerud of Hashrate Index recently released a ‘comprehensive analysis’ on the thesis that a Bitcoin miner capitulation could put massive selling pressure on the market, causing a crash.\u00a0 The topic has been a recurring part of the discussion in recent weeks as to whether the BTC bear market could be prolonged by the tight mining industry. Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments stated two weeks ago that miner capitulation has begun, as indicated by hash ribbons. Investment giant VanEck also recently published an analysis that the bear market could extend into the second quarter of 2023 due to miner capitulation. The company predicted that BTC could bottom at $10,000 to $12,000 in Q1 2023. Mellerud counters this assumption by saying that the miners’ total BTC holdings are not significant enough to move the spot market. Are Bitcoin Miners Not As Powerful As Believed? The Hashrate Index analyst writes that all miners must collectively own a significant portion of the circulating supply to have a meaningful impact. However, the question of the number of their holdings is a great mystery, although estimates do exist. On-chain data providers such as CoinMetrics and Glassnode provide the best-known guesses, by grouping wallet addresses according to their proximity to the Coinbase transaction. Mellerud claims that these numbers likely significantly overestimate miners’ Bitcoin holdings. CoinMetrics estimates 820,000 BTC for all miners worldwide. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Why BTC Could Still Tumble Below $16K Another possibility is to derive the number from the Bitcoin holdings of public miners. Using these figures, Mellerud estimates 470,000 Bitcoin. With 19.2 million BTC currently in circulation, miners thus hold only between 2% and 4%. “The public’s image of miners as enormous bitcoin holders and influential market participants might have been accurate ten years ago […]. Times have changed, and miners no longer hold a meaningful share of the Bitcoin supply,” Mellerud claims. BTC Holdings By Miners Vs. Spot Volume However, in terms of potential selling pressure, it is also important to know the size of the spot market to find out how well the market can absorb the selling pressure. According to Mellerud, the best way to estimate the absolute selling pressure of miners is to look at how much BTC they receive each day. Generally speaking, about 900 freshly minted Bitcoins flow into miners’ wallets every day. When miners sell less than 100% of their production, they accumulate Bitcoin; when they sell more than 100%, they reduce their holdings. The chart below shows that Bitcoin sales by miners peaked in June when they sold 350% of their production. For the rest of the year, the rate was 150% at maximum. Using Binance spot volume, Mellerud shows in the chart below that a selling pressure of 100% of the production accounts for only 0.2% of the spot volume. At 200%, it represents only 0.4%, and at 300%, it is still only 0.6% of the total volume. Mellerud concludes: Due to the small share of Bitcoin miners’ hypothetical volume compared to Bitcoin’s total spot volume, we see that Bitcoin should have more than enough liquidity in its spot market to accommodate the selling pressure from miners. In a worst-case scenario by Mellerud, in which all miners dump their entire holdings within 30 days (equally distributed over all days), the selling pressure of 470,000 BTC (4,900 BTC per day) would only amount to 1% of the total spot volume. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Poised To Continue Its Rally As Whales Turn Bullish After 14 Months Only if the holdings actually amount to 820,000 BTC and they were all liquidated within 30 days, it might lead to a crash in the Bitcoin price, Mellerud says. Miners would then account for nearly 7% of the spot volume. The Bitcoin price is currently experiencing a plunge of around 3.5% within the last few hours. At press time, BTC was trading at $17,035.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":506035,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,1119,2988],"class_list":["post-512623","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-miner"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Miner Capitulation Is An Exaggerated Fear, Analyst Claims<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jaran Mellerud of Hashrate Index recently released a 'comprehensive analysis' on the thesis that a Bitcoin miner capitulation could put massive selling\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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Through his extensive work with wncen.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/realJakeSimmons"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/marcusmisiak\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Is An Exaggerated Fear, Analyst Claims","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-miner-capitulation-is-exaggerated\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-miner-capitulation-is-exaggerated\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/cryptocurrency-g9db57b6ed_1280.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/cryptocurrency-g9db57b6ed_1280.jpg?fit=1280%2C862"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Jake Simmons"}],"creator":["Jake Simmons"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","btc","miner"],"dateCreated":"2022-12-16T12:20:00Z","datePublished":"2022-12-16T12:20:00Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T08:08:20Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Is An Exaggerated Fear, Analyst Claims\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-miner-capitulation-is-exaggerated\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-miner-capitulation-is-exaggerated\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/10\\\/cryptocurrency-g9db57b6ed_1280.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/10\\\/cryptocurrency-g9db57b6ed_1280.jpg?fit=1280%2C862\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Jake Simmons\"}],\"creator\":[\"Jake Simmons\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"btc\",\"miner\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2022-12-16T12:20:00Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-12-16T12:20:00Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T08:08:20Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/cryptocurrency-g9db57b6ed_1280.jpg?fit=1280%2C862","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/512623"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/571"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=512623"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/512623\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/506035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=512623"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=512623"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=512623"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}