{"id":520256,"date":"2023-02-20T14:30:04","date_gmt":"2023-02-20T14:30:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=520256"},"modified":"2024-06-11T07:10:14","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T07:10:14","slug":"bitcoin-bull-run-too-soon-call-quant-cautions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-bull-run-too-soon-call-quant-cautions\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Bull Run Still Too Soon To Call, This Quant Cautions"},"content":{"rendered":"

A quant has cautioned that a Bitcoin bull market may still be too soon to call, as this on-chain indicator is yet to meet the proper conditions.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR (SMA 14) Has Still Not Crossed Above 1<\/h2>\n

According to an analyst in a CryptoQuant post<\/a>, the recent rally in the BTC price could just be a bull trap. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio<\/a>,” which tells us whether the average investor is selling their Bitcoin at a profit or at a loss right now.<\/p>\n

When the value of this metric is less than 1, it means the overall market is realizing some losses with their selling currently. On the other hand, values above the threshold imply the average holder is moving coins at a net amount of profit at the moment.<\/p>\n

At SOPR exactly equal to 1, the profits being realized in the market are equal to the losses, which suggests that the investors as a whole can be thought to be breaking even at this mark.<\/p>\n

One of the two main investor cohorts in the BTC market is the “long-term holder<\/a>” (LTH) group, which includes all investors that have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago, without having moved or sold them from a single wallet address.<\/p>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 14-day simple moving average (SMA) Bitcoin SOPR specifically for these LTHs over the history of the cryptocurrency:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Looks like the 14-day SMA value of the metric has seen some rise in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant<\/a><\/pre>\n
As shown in the above graph, the 14-day SMA Bitcoin LTH SOPR has been below the 1 mark since May 2022. This means that this cohort has been selling its coins at a loss all this while.<\/p>\n
In the chart, the quant has also marked the trend that the indicator followed during the last couple of cycles. It seems like this metric was under this level in the previous bear markets as well.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Bitcoin Puell Multiple Hits 14-Month High, Here\u2019s What It Means<\/a><\/div>\n
The reason the LTHs start selling at losses as a bear market takes hold is that their acquisition cutoff (155 days) then also covers the preceding bull run, which naturally had much higher entry prices.<\/p>\n
Some of these investors who bought at the top capitulated as the prices plunge in the bear market<\/a>, thus leading to the SOPR turning red. Once this capitulation finishes and the capital rotates into other investors at the lower bear market prices, however, the market starts recovering.<\/p>\n
From the graph, it’s apparent that a break of the 14-day SMA Bitcoin LTH SOPR above 1 (a sign that LTHs are now selling at profits) has usually led to bull runs in the past. With the latest rally, the metric has improved a bit, but its value has still not touched the 1 level.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Bitcoin Price At Risk of Downside Thrust Before A Fresh Increase<\/a><\/div>\n
“It is still too early to name the $15.5K level the bear market\u2019s bottom, as the recent impulsive rally could just be a bull trap,” warns the analyst. “It is important to closely watch the long-term holders’ SOPR metric in the short term to anticipate the price direction.”<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $24,800, up 14% in the last week.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
BTC continues to consolidate | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Becca on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A quant has cautioned that a Bitcoin bull market may still be too soon to call, as this on-chain indicator is yet to meet the proper conditions. Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR (SMA 14) Has Still Not Crossed Above 1 According to an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the recent rally in the BTC price could just be a bull trap. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio,” which tells us whether the average investor is selling their Bitcoin at a profit or at a loss right now. When the value of this metric is less than 1, it means the overall market is realizing some losses with their selling currently. On the other hand, values above the threshold imply the average holder is moving coins at a net amount of profit at the moment. At SOPR exactly equal to 1, the profits being realized in the market are equal to the losses, which suggests that the investors as a whole can be thought to be breaking even at this mark. One of the two main investor cohorts in the BTC market is the “long-term holder” (LTH) group, which includes all investors that have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago, without having moved or sold them from a single wallet address. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 14-day simple moving average (SMA) Bitcoin SOPR specifically for these LTHs over the history of the cryptocurrency: Looks like the 14-day SMA value of the metric has seen some rise in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As shown in the above graph, the 14-day SMA Bitcoin LTH SOPR has been below the 1 mark since May 2022. This means that this cohort has been selling its coins at a loss all this while. In the chart, the quant has also marked the trend that the indicator followed during the last couple of cycles. It seems like this metric was under this level in the previous bear markets as well. Related Reading: Bitcoin Puell Multiple Hits 14-Month High, Here\u2019s What It Means The reason the LTHs start selling at losses as a bear market takes hold is that their acquisition cutoff (155 days) then also covers the preceding bull run, which naturally had much higher entry prices. Some of these investors who bought at the top capitulated as the prices plunge in the bear market, thus leading to the SOPR turning red. Once this capitulation finishes and the capital rotates into other investors at the lower bear market prices, however, the market starts recovering. From the graph, it’s apparent that a break of the 14-day SMA Bitcoin LTH SOPR above 1 (a sign that LTHs are now selling at profits) has usually led to bull runs in the past. With the latest rally, the metric has improved a bit, but its value has still not touched the 1 level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price At Risk of Downside Thrust Before A Fresh Increase “It is still too early to name the $15.5K level the bear market\u2019s bottom, as the recent impulsive rally could just be a bull trap,” warns the analyst. “It is important to closely watch the long-term holders’ SOPR metric in the short term to anticipate the price direction.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $24,800, up 14% in the last week. BTC continues to consolidate | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Becca on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":520274,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,85533,84666,86008,6481,84438,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-520256","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bull-run","tag-bitcoin-long-term-holders","tag-bitcoin-lth-sopr","tag-bitcoin-rally","tag-bitcoin-sopr","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Bull Run Still Too Soon To Call, This Quant Cautions<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A quant has cautioned that a Bitcoin bull market may still be too soon to call, as this on-chain indicator is yet to meet the proper conditions. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Bitcoin Bull Run Still Too Soon To Call, This Quant Cautions","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-bull-run-too-soon-call-quant-cautions\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-bull-run-too-soon-call-quant-cautions\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/becca-_r6w0R6SueQ-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/becca-_r6w0R6SueQ-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1903"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin bull run","bitcoin long-term holders","bitcoin lth sopr","bitcoin rally","bitcoin sopr","btc","btcusd"],"dateCreated":"2023-02-20T14:30:04Z","datePublished":"2023-02-20T14:30:04Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T07:10:14Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Bitcoin Bull Run Still Too Soon To Call, This Quant Cautions\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-bull-run-too-soon-call-quant-cautions\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-bull-run-too-soon-call-quant-cautions\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/becca-_r6w0R6SueQ-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/becca-_r6w0R6SueQ-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1903\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin bull run\",\"bitcoin long-term holders\",\"bitcoin lth sopr\",\"bitcoin rally\",\"bitcoin sopr\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-02-20T14:30:04Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-02-20T14:30:04Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T07:10:14Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/becca-_r6w0R6SueQ-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1903","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/520256"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=520256"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/520256\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/520274"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=520256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=520256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=520256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}