{"id":524560,"date":"2023-03-27T15:00:10","date_gmt":"2023-03-27T15:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=524560"},"modified":"2024-06-11T09:22:03","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T09:22:03","slug":"bitcoin-undervalued-overvalued-nvm-ratio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-undervalued-overvalued-nvm-ratio\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Bitcoin Undervalued Or Overvalued? Here’s What NVM Ratio Says"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bitcoin Network Value to Metcalfe (NVM) ratio has hit a high of 0.75 recently. Here’s what this tells us about the current BTC market.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin NVM Ratio Has Been Riding An Uptrend Recently<\/h2>\n

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post<\/a>, the NVM ratio is currently at a 7-month peak. The “NVM ratio” is an on-chain indicator that measures the ratio between the log of the Bitcoin market cap and the square of the asset’s daily active addresses.<\/p>\n

The “daily active addresses<\/a>” here is a metric that measures the total amount of unique BTC addresses that are taking part in some kind of transaction activity on the blockchain each day. This indicator includes both senders and receivers in this calculation.<\/p>\n

The NVM ratio is based on Metcalfe’s law (hence the “Metcalfe” in its full form), according to which the value of any network is proportional to the square of the active users. In the case of the NVM, the active addresses metric plays the role of active users.<\/p>\n

When the value of this ratio is high, it means the current price of the asset is relatively high compared to the active addresses, and hence, BTC may be overvalued right now.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Why This Economics Professor Thinks Bitcoin Is Worthless<\/a><\/div>\n

On the other hand, low values suggest there are a high number of users participating on the blockchain, but the price isn’t reflecting this at the moment. During this trend, the asset may be considered undervalued.<\/p>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVM ratio, as well as its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), over the last few years:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Looks like the value of the metric has been on an overall uptrend recently | Source: CryptoQuant<\/a><\/pre>\n
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVM ratio had been at values greater than 0.6 throughout the year 2021. Tops in the price coincided with the indicator registering sharp spikes, with the current all-time high price overlapping with the metric surpassing a value of 2.<\/p>\n
Interestingly, a spike higher than even the aforementioned ATH was observed in the middle of the May-July 2021 mini-bear period. According to the quant, this large surge in the indicator took place because of the special circumstances caused by China’s mining ban<\/a>.<\/p>\n
In 2022, however, as the bear market arrived, the Bitcoin NVM ratio started to go down and breached below the 0.6 mark. During this downtrend, the metric also dropped below its 100-day EMA.<\/p>\n
But things changed fast with the latest rally<\/a> in the price, as the indicator quickly jumped from a low value of 0.26 to 0.6. The uptrend in the ratio has continued along with the rally recently, and the metric has now hit a 7-month high of 0.75.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Elon Musk Points Out \u2018Most Serious Looming Issue\u2019 In Banking, Bitcoin To Moon?<\/a><\/div>\n
While the metric may have broken out of the undervalued zone of below 0.6, it doesn’t mean that the asset is now overvalued. From past instances, it’s clear that the tops have taken place at far higher values than what the NVM ratio has displayed recently, suggesting that the rally may have some potential to go further still.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $27,900, up 1% in the last week.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
BTC has gone stale in recent days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The Bitcoin Network Value to Metcalfe (NVM) ratio has hit a high of 0.75 recently. Here’s what this tells us about the current BTC market. Bitcoin NVM Ratio Has Been Riding An Uptrend Recently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the NVM ratio is currently at a 7-month peak. The “NVM ratio” is an on-chain indicator that measures the ratio between the log of the Bitcoin market cap and the square of the asset’s daily active addresses. The “daily active addresses” here is a metric that measures the total amount of unique BTC addresses that are taking part in some kind of transaction activity on the blockchain each day. This indicator includes both senders and receivers in this calculation. The NVM ratio is based on Metcalfe’s law (hence the “Metcalfe” in its full form), according to which the value of any network is proportional to the square of the active users. In the case of the NVM, the active addresses metric plays the role of active users. When the value of this ratio is high, it means the current price of the asset is relatively high compared to the active addresses, and hence, BTC may be overvalued right now. Related Reading: Why This Economics Professor Thinks Bitcoin Is Worthless On the other hand, low values suggest there are a high number of users participating on the blockchain, but the price isn’t reflecting this at the moment. During this trend, the asset may be considered undervalued. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVM ratio, as well as its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), over the last few years: Looks like the value of the metric has been on an overall uptrend recently | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVM ratio had been at values greater than 0.6 throughout the year 2021. Tops in the price coincided with the indicator registering sharp spikes, with the current all-time high price overlapping with the metric surpassing a value of 2. Interestingly, a spike higher than even the aforementioned ATH was observed in the middle of the May-July 2021 mini-bear period. According to the quant, this large surge in the indicator took place because of the special circumstances caused by China’s mining ban. In 2022, however, as the bear market arrived, the Bitcoin NVM ratio started to go down and breached below the 0.6 mark. During this downtrend, the metric also dropped below its 100-day EMA. But things changed fast with the latest rally in the price, as the indicator quickly jumped from a low value of 0.26 to 0.6. The uptrend in the ratio has continued along with the rally recently, and the metric has now hit a 7-month high of 0.75. Related Reading: Elon Musk Points Out \u2018Most Serious Looming Issue\u2019 In Banking, Bitcoin To Moon? While the metric may have broken out of the undervalued zone of below 0.6, it doesn’t mean that the asset is now overvalued. From past instances, it’s clear that the tops have taken place at far higher values than what the NVM ratio has displayed recently, suggesting that the rally may have some potential to go further still. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $27,900, up 1% in the last week. BTC has gone stale in recent days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":524577,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,88040,87456,87468,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-524560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-nvm-ratio","tag-bitcoin-overvalued","tag-bitcoin-undervalued","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs Bitcoin Undervalued Or Overvalued? Here's What NVM Ratio Says<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Bitcoin Network Value to Metcalfe (NVM) ratio has hit a high of 0.75 recently. Here's what this tells us about the current BTC market. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Is Bitcoin Undervalued Or Overvalued? 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