{"id":525144,"date":"2023-03-31T14:30:28","date_gmt":"2023-03-31T14:30:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=525144"},"modified":"2024-06-11T12:10:21","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T12:10:21","slug":"bitcoin-bear-market-historic-on-chain-signal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-bear-market-historic-on-chain-signal\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Bear Market Over? This Historic On-Chain Signal Suggests So"},"content":{"rendered":"

A Bitcoin on-chain pattern that signaled the end of the bear market during the last three instances has formed once again recently.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Is Now Above That Of Long-Term Holders<\/h2>\n

As pointed out by an analyst on Twitter<\/a>, the asset may be in the middle of a transition from a bull market to a bear market. The relevant indicator here is the “realized price<\/a>,” which is a value derived from the realized cap.<\/p>\n

This realized cap is a capitalization model for Bitcoin that says each circulating coin’s worth isn’t the current BTC price, but actually the value at which it was last transferred on the blockchain.<\/p>\n

When this model is divided by the total number of coins in circulation, the aforementioned “realized price” is obtained. Since the realized cap accounted for the prices at which the coins were last purchased, that is to say, the holders’ cost bases, the realized price represents the acquisition price or the cost basis of the average investor in the market.<\/p>\n

This realized price covers the entire market, but the metric can also be defined for only portions of the user base. The realized prices of the “long-term holders<\/a>” (LTHs) and the “short-term holders<\/a>” (STHs), in particular, are of interest here.<\/p>\n

These two holder groups form the two main cohorts that the Bitcoin market can be divided into. The STHs include investors that have been holding their coins since less than 155 days ago, while the LTHs include those that have been holding since more than this threshold amount.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Approaches 1.5 Level, Will Break Happen?<\/a><\/div>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the realized prices of these two BTC cohorts over the last few months:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Looks like the two metrics have crossed each other in recent days | Source: James V. Straten on Twitter<\/a><\/pre>\n
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin realized price for the entire market, as well as for the STHs and LTHs, was above the normal price just before the rally started in January.<\/p>\n
This means that the average investor in all the sections of the market was in a state of loss then. With the rally, however, the price quickly crossed all three of these prices, implying that these investors were back in profit.<\/p>\n
Recently, as the price surge has continued, the market has started to see a shift in the different realized prices. From the chart, it’s apparent that the metric’s value for the LTHs has dipped below that for the STHs very recently.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Bitcoin And Ethereum Correlation At A Staggering 97%, BTC Rally Incoming?<\/a><\/div>\n
This means that the cost basis of the LTHs is now below that of the STHs. This is the first time since May 2019 that this kind of shift has occurred in the Bitcoin market.<\/p>\n
“This has happened three times previously, and each time has signaled the end of a bear market,” explains the analyst. It now remains to be seen whether this historical signal will hold true this time as well.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $27,900, up 1% in the last week.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
BTC has moved sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A Bitcoin on-chain pattern that signaled the end of the bear market during the last three instances has formed once again recently. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Is Now Above That Of Long-Term Holders As pointed out by an analyst on Twitter, the asset may be in the middle of a transition from a bull market to a bear market. The relevant indicator here is the “realized price,” which is a value derived from the realized cap. This realized cap is a capitalization model for Bitcoin that says each circulating coin’s worth isn’t the current BTC price, but actually the value at which it was last transferred on the blockchain. When this model is divided by the total number of coins in circulation, the aforementioned “realized price” is obtained. Since the realized cap accounted for the prices at which the coins were last purchased, that is to say, the holders’ cost bases, the realized price represents the acquisition price or the cost basis of the average investor in the market. This realized price covers the entire market, but the metric can also be defined for only portions of the user base. The realized prices of the “long-term holders” (LTHs) and the “short-term holders” (STHs), in particular, are of interest here. These two holder groups form the two main cohorts that the Bitcoin market can be divided into. The STHs include investors that have been holding their coins since less than 155 days ago, while the LTHs include those that have been holding since more than this threshold amount. Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Approaches 1.5 Level, Will Break Happen? Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the realized prices of these two BTC cohorts over the last few months: Looks like the two metrics have crossed each other in recent days | Source: James V. Straten on Twitter As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin realized price for the entire market, as well as for the STHs and LTHs, was above the normal price just before the rally started in January. This means that the average investor in all the sections of the market was in a state of loss then. With the rally, however, the price quickly crossed all three of these prices, implying that these investors were back in profit. Recently, as the price surge has continued, the market has started to see a shift in the different realized prices. From the chart, it’s apparent that the metric’s value for the LTHs has dipped below that for the STHs very recently. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Ethereum Correlation At A Staggering 97%, BTC Rally Incoming? This means that the cost basis of the LTHs is now below that of the STHs. This is the first time since May 2019 that this kind of shift has occurred in the Bitcoin market. “This has happened three times previously, and each time has signaled the end of a bear market,” explains the analyst. It now remains to be seen whether this historical signal will hold true this time as well. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $27,900, up 1% in the last week. BTC has moved sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":525147,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,7104,84666,85949,86297,84852,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-525144","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bear-market","tag-bitcoin-long-term-holders","tag-bitcoin-on-chain","tag-bitcoin-realized-price","tag-bitcoin-short-term-holders","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Bear Market Over? 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Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Bitcoin Bear Market Over? 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