{"id":537660,"date":"2023-06-13T20:00:02","date_gmt":"2023-06-13T20:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=537660"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:08:30","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:08:30","slug":"bitcoin-market-decision-point-on-chain-retest-successful","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-market-decision-point-on-chain-retest-successful\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Market At Decision Point: Will This On-Chain Retest Be Successful?"},"content":{"rendered":"

On-chain data shows a Bitcoin metric is approaching a crucial retest that can make or break a rally. Will the bulls come out on top?<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Profit\/Loss Ratio Is Nearing 1 Level<\/h2>\n

According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode<\/a>, a successful retest here would be constructive for the price of the asset. The indicator of interest here is the “realized profit\/loss ratio<\/a>,” which measures the ratio between the profits and losses that Bitcoin investors throughout the network are realizing right now.<\/p>\n

The metric works by going through the on-chain history of each coin being sold to see what price it was last acquired at. If this previous price for any coin was less than the BTC value that it’s now being sold\/moved at, then the coin’s sale is said to be realizing some amount of profit.<\/p>\n

Naturally, the opposite case would imply that loss realization is occurring with the coin’s movement. The metric takes the sum of all such profits and losses being harvested in the market and finds the ratio between them.<\/p>\n

When the value of this ratio is greater than 1, it means that the market as a whole is realizing some amount of profit currently. On the other hand, values under this threshold imply losses are more dominant in the sector right now.<\/p>\n

In the context of the current discussion, the realized profit\/loss ratio for the entire market is actually not the metric of focus, but the version specifically for the “short-term holders<\/a>” (STHs) is.<\/p>\n

The STHs are one of the two major groups in the Bitcoin market and include all the investors who have been holding onto their coins since less than 155 days ago.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Stuck In Historically Tight Range, Calm Before The Storm?<\/a><\/div>\n

Here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) BTC STH realized profit\/loss ratio over the last couple of years:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

The value of the metric seems to have been going down in recent days | Source: Glassnode on Twitter<\/a><\/pre>\n
As displayed in the above graph, the 7-day EMA Bitcoin STH realized profit\/loss ratio has been above 1 during the past few months, suggesting that profit realization has been the dominant force.<\/p>\n
This naturally makes sense, as the rally<\/a> occurred during this period, which would have made it so that these investors would be in plenty of profits. Recently, however, the metric has been going down as the price has observed a decline.<\/p>\n
From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator is now closing in toward the 1 mark. The 1 line has historically held immense significance for the market, as it serves as the point where the STHs are just breaking even on their selling.<\/p>\n
During bearish periods, this line has usually provided resistance to the price of Bitcoin, while it has switched to being a support point during bullish regimes. The reason behind this interesting pattern lies in the fact that investors look at their break-even mark very differently between the two types of markets.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Chainlink (LINK) Whale Transfers Spike, Bearish Sign?<\/a><\/div>\n
In a bearish environment, investors see the break-even mark as an ideal exiting point, as that way, they can at least avoid getting into losses. Thus, a lot of selling takes place at the level, leading to the price feeling resistance. Similarly, the investors look at the level as a profitable buying opportunity during rallies, so they participate in some buying at it.<\/p>\n
Obviously, if the current rally has to have any chance at going, this retest of the 1 level would have to be successful. If a breakdown happens here, however, then a bearish regime might return for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,000, up 1% in the last week.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
BTC has been moving sideways | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
On-chain data shows a Bitcoin metric is approaching a crucial retest that can make or break a rally. Will the bulls come out on top? Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Profit\/Loss Ratio Is Nearing 1 Level According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, a successful retest here would be constructive for the price of the asset. The indicator of interest here is the “realized profit\/loss ratio,” which measures the ratio between the profits and losses that Bitcoin investors throughout the network are realizing right now. The metric works by going through the on-chain history of each coin being sold to see what price it was last acquired at. If this previous price for any coin was less than the BTC value that it’s now being sold\/moved at, then the coin’s sale is said to be realizing some amount of profit. Naturally, the opposite case would imply that loss realization is occurring with the coin’s movement. The metric takes the sum of all such profits and losses being harvested in the market and finds the ratio between them. When the value of this ratio is greater than 1, it means that the market as a whole is realizing some amount of profit currently. On the other hand, values under this threshold imply losses are more dominant in the sector right now. In the context of the current discussion, the realized profit\/loss ratio for the entire market is actually not the metric of focus, but the version specifically for the “short-term holders” (STHs) is. The STHs are one of the two major groups in the Bitcoin market and include all the investors who have been holding onto their coins since less than 155 days ago. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stuck In Historically Tight Range, Calm Before The Storm? Here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) BTC STH realized profit\/loss ratio over the last couple of years: The value of the metric seems to have been going down in recent days | Source: Glassnode on Twitter As displayed in the above graph, the 7-day EMA Bitcoin STH realized profit\/loss ratio has been above 1 during the past few months, suggesting that profit realization has been the dominant force. This naturally makes sense, as the rally occurred during this period, which would have made it so that these investors would be in plenty of profits. Recently, however, the metric has been going down as the price has observed a decline. From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator is now closing in toward the 1 mark. The 1 line has historically held immense significance for the market, as it serves as the point where the STHs are just breaking even on their selling. During bearish periods, this line has usually provided resistance to the price of Bitcoin, while it has switched to being a support point during bullish regimes. The reason behind this interesting pattern lies in the fact that investors look at their break-even mark very differently between the two types of markets. Related Reading: Chainlink (LINK) Whale Transfers Spike, Bearish Sign? In a bearish environment, investors see the break-even mark as an ideal exiting point, as that way, they can at least avoid getting into losses. Thus, a lot of selling takes place at the level, leading to the price feeling resistance. Similarly, the investors look at the level as a profitable buying opportunity during rallies, so they participate in some buying at it. Obviously, if the current rally has to have any chance at going, this retest of the 1 level would have to be successful. If a breakdown happens here, however, then a bearish regime might return for Bitcoin. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,000, up 1% in the last week. BTC has been moving sideways | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":537716,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,88416,86576,84852,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-537660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-decision-point","tag-bitcoin-retest","tag-bitcoin-short-term-holders","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Market At Decision Point: Will This On-Chain Retest Be Successful?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"On-chain data shows a Bitcoin metric is approaching a crucial retest that can be break or make for the rally. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Bitcoin Market At Decision Point: Will This On-Chain Retest Be Successful?","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-market-decision-point-on-chain-retest-successful\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-market-decision-point-on-chain-retest-successful\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/iStock-1316129074-1.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/iStock-1316129074-1.jpg?fit=2342%2C1280"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin decision point","bitcoin retest","bitcoin short-term holders","btc","btcusd"],"dateCreated":"2023-06-13T20:00:02Z","datePublished":"2023-06-13T20:00:02Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T08:08:30Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Bitcoin Market At Decision Point: Will This On-Chain Retest Be Successful?\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-market-decision-point-on-chain-retest-successful\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-market-decision-point-on-chain-retest-successful\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/06\\\/iStock-1316129074-1.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/06\\\/iStock-1316129074-1.jpg?fit=2342%2C1280\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin decision point\",\"bitcoin retest\",\"bitcoin short-term holders\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-06-13T20:00:02Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-06-13T20:00:02Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T08:08:30Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/iStock-1316129074-1.jpg?fit=2342%2C1280","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/537660"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=537660"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/537660\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/537716"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=537660"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=537660"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=537660"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}