{"id":540212,"date":"2023-06-28T22:34:55","date_gmt":"2023-06-28T22:34:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=540212"},"modified":"2024-06-11T10:07:49","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T10:07:49","slug":"bitcoin-poised-for-potential-major-buy-signal-in-july","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-poised-for-potential-major-buy-signal-in-july\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Poised For Potential Major Buy Signal In July"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Spurred by the recent flood of spot Bitcoin ETF applications from Blackrock and Fidelity among others, Bitcoin vaulted impressively up to the $30,000 area where its momentum has stalled in recent sessions. While many analysts and traders routinely acknowledge the significance of the $30,000 level as a key resistance area, Bitcoin&#8217;s move back above its 20-month simple moving average (20-month SMA) may deserve far more attention than it&#8217;s getting. With Bitcoin poised for a potential major buy signal as soon as July 1st, let\u2019s take a closer look at this underappreciated signal.<\/p>\n<h2>The Simple Line Separating Bull And Bear Phases<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin&#8217;s 20-month SMA currently sits at $29,910 according to the Bitcoin \/ U.S. Dollar All Time History Index, slightly below Bitcoin&#8217;s current price of just above $30,000. This puts the number one cryptocurrency by market cap barely above its 20-month SMA for the first time since March 2022. What&#8217;s the potential significance? If Bitcoin can end the month of June with a monthly candle close above the 20-month SMA, this will be only the fifth time that this has occurred in all of Bitcoin&#8217;s history, and a signal which has often seen higher prices follow.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-540215 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/CHART_BTC-MONTHLY.png?resize=460%2C319\" alt=\"\" width=\"460\" height=\"319\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><span style=\"text-align: center\">Bitcoin Monthly Chart with 20-Month SMA\u00a0 | BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/span><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/bitcoin-news\/bitcoin-rally-stalls-short-term-holder-inflows-intensify\/?swcfpc=1\"> Bitcoin Rally Stalls As Short-Term Holder Exchange Inflows Intensify<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>For a clearer picture of the significance of the 20-month SMA, let&#8217;s look at all of Bitcoin&#8217;s monthly closes above the 20-month SMA and below the 20-month SMA. In order to do this, we&#8217;ll create a hypothetical trading system, strictly for analytical purposes, &#8220;buying&#8221; when Bitcoin closes above its 20-month SMA and &#8220;selling&#8221; when Bitcoin closes back below its 20-month SMA. Note that \u201cLE\u201d indicates a buy signal while \u201cLX\u201d indicates a sell signal. The blue highlight shows the periods when the system&#8217;s logic sold Bitcoin following a long exit signal and was out of the market.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-540219 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/CHART_BTC-MONTHLY-SIGNALS.png?resize=460%2C233\" alt=\"\" width=\"460\" height=\"233\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><span style=\"text-align: center\">Bitcoin Monthly Chart with 20-Month SMA\u00a0 | BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/span><\/p>\n<p>What&#8217;s striking in this chart is that 20-month SMA nearly perfectly divides bull phases from bear phases throughout most of Bitcoin\u2019s history from late 2011 to now. For example, exiting once Bitcoin closes below its 20-month SMA sidesteps much of the 2014-2015 bear market, the worst leg down of the 2018-2019 bear market, and so far virtually all of the current 2022-2023 bear market. The early pandemic drop in March of 2020 provides the only exception, with the simple logic getting briefly whipsawed before re-entering at the start of the next month.<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin&#8217;s 20-Month SMA Stats Look Compellingly Bullish<\/h2>\n<p>Taking our research a step further, let&#8217;s quantify the signals, once again hypothetically &#8220;buying&#8221; when Bitcoin closes above its 20-month SMA and &#8220;selling&#8221; when Bitcoin closes back below its 20-month SMA. From late 2011 to the present, there have been four completed signals with a profitability of 75%, meaning three of the four signals produced a hypothetical gain, and one of the signals produced a loss. Over these four signals, Bitcoin delivered an impressive +2499% hypothetical average trade versus a single worst trade result of -24.8%.<\/p>\n<p>While clearly occurrences of these infrequent signals are low (only four to date, and too few to be statistically significant) and the past does not predict the future, we&#8217;ll nevertheless be watching closely to see if Bitcoin can end June with a monthly close above its 20-month SMA. At the moment, sitting just above the key $30,000 level, Bitcoin looks poised for a potential major buy signal in July.<\/p>\n<div class=\"disclaimer-shortcode\">DB the Quant is the author of the <a href=\"https:\/\/rektelligence.substack.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">REKTelligence Report<\/a> newsletter on Substack. Follow <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/rektelligence?s=21&amp;t=MTrDR-nCiRRkbzbRMFRc0Q\" rel=\"nofollow\">@REKTelligence<\/a> on Twitter for evidence-based crypto market research and analysis. Important Note: This content is strictly educational in nature and should not be considered investment advice. Featured images created with Tableau. Charts from TradingView.com.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Spurred by the recent flood of spot Bitcoin ETF applications from Blackrock and Fidelity among others, Bitcoin vaulted impressively up to the $30,000 area where its momentum has stalled in recent sessions. While many analysts and traders routinely acknowledge the significance of the $30,000 level as a key resistance area, Bitcoin&#8217;s move back above its 20-month simple moving average (20-month SMA) may deserve far more attention than it&#8217;s getting. With Bitcoin poised for a potential major buy signal as soon as July 1st, let\u2019s take a closer look at this underappreciated signal. The Simple Line Separating Bull And Bear Phases Bitcoin&#8217;s 20-month SMA currently sits at $29,910 according to the Bitcoin \/ U.S. Dollar All Time History Index, slightly below Bitcoin&#8217;s current price of just above $30,000. This puts the number one cryptocurrency by market cap barely above its 20-month SMA for the first time since March 2022. What&#8217;s the potential significance? If Bitcoin can end the month of June with a monthly candle close above the 20-month SMA, this will be only the fifth time that this has occurred in all of Bitcoin&#8217;s history, and a signal which has often seen higher prices follow. Bitcoin Monthly Chart with 20-Month SMA\u00a0 | BTCUSD on TradingView.com Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Stalls As Short-Term Holder Exchange Inflows Intensify For a clearer picture of the significance of the 20-month SMA, let&#8217;s look at all of Bitcoin&#8217;s monthly closes above the 20-month SMA and below the 20-month SMA. In order to do this, we&#8217;ll create a hypothetical trading system, strictly for analytical purposes, &#8220;buying&#8221; when Bitcoin closes above its 20-month SMA and &#8220;selling&#8221; when Bitcoin closes back below its 20-month SMA. Note that \u201cLE\u201d indicates a buy signal while \u201cLX\u201d indicates a sell signal. The blue highlight shows the periods when the system&#8217;s logic sold Bitcoin following a long exit signal and was out of the market. Bitcoin Monthly Chart with 20-Month SMA\u00a0 | BTCUSD on TradingView.com What&#8217;s striking in this chart is that 20-month SMA nearly perfectly divides bull phases from bear phases throughout most of Bitcoin\u2019s history from late 2011 to now. For example, exiting once Bitcoin closes below its 20-month SMA sidesteps much of the 2014-2015 bear market, the worst leg down of the 2018-2019 bear market, and so far virtually all of the current 2022-2023 bear market. The early pandemic drop in March of 2020 provides the only exception, with the simple logic getting briefly whipsawed before re-entering at the start of the next month. Bitcoin&#8217;s 20-Month SMA Stats Look Compellingly Bullish Taking our research a step further, let&#8217;s quantify the signals, once again hypothetically &#8220;buying&#8221; when Bitcoin closes above its 20-month SMA and &#8220;selling&#8221; when Bitcoin closes back below its 20-month SMA. From late 2011 to the present, there have been four completed signals with a profitability of 75%, meaning three of the four signals produced a hypothetical gain, and one of the signals produced a loss. Over these four signals, Bitcoin delivered an impressive +2499% hypothetical average trade versus a single worst trade result of -24.8%. While clearly occurrences of these infrequent signals are low (only four to date, and too few to be statistically significant) and the past does not predict the future, we&#8217;ll nevertheless be watching closely to see if Bitcoin can end June with a monthly close above its 20-month SMA. At the moment, sitting just above the key $30,000 level, Bitcoin looks poised for a potential major buy signal in July. DB the Quant is the author of the REKTelligence Report newsletter on Substack. Follow @REKTelligence on Twitter for evidence-based crypto market research and analysis. Important Note: This content is strictly educational in nature and should not be considered investment advice. Featured images created with Tableau. Charts from TradingView.com.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":597,"featured_media":540239,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,11680,656,1119,1144,78790,76835],"class_list":["post-540212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bullish","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-btc","tag-btcusd","tag-btcusdt","tag-xbtusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>Bitcoin Poised For Potential Major Buy Signal In July<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin&#039;s move back above its 20-month simple moving average (20-month SMA) may deserve far more attention than it&#039;s getting. With Bitcoin poised for a potential major buy signal as soon as July 1st, let\u2019s take a closer look at this underappreciated signal.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-poised-for-potential-major-buy-signal-in-july\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin Poised For Potential Major Buy Signal In July\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitcoin&#039;s move back above its 20-month simple moving average (20-month SMA) may deserve far more attention than it&#039;s getting. With Bitcoin poised for a potential major buy signal as soon as July 1st, let\u2019s take a closer look at this underappreciated signal.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-poised-for-potential-major-buy-signal-in-july\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"NewsBTC\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/newsbtc\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-06-28T22:34:55+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-06-11T10:07:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0195FECF-5AF3-4E5F-BE34-C98D418CD763.jpeg?fit=2084%2C1438\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2084\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1438\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"dbthequant\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@newsbtc\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@newsbtc\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"dbthequant\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-poised-for-potential-major-buy-signal-in-july\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-poised-for-potential-major-buy-signal-in-july\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"dbthequant\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6d8495042b08b38872f84ebe4ade49aa\"},\"headline\":\"Bitcoin Poised For Potential Major Buy Signal In July\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-06-28T22:34:55+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T10:07:49+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-poised-for-potential-major-buy-signal-in-july\/\"},\"wordCount\":640,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-poised-for-potential-major-buy-signal-in-july\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0195FECF-5AF3-4E5F-BE34-C98D418CD763.jpeg?fit=2084%2C1438\",\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"Bitcoin Bullish\",\"Bitcoin news\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\",\"BTCUSDT\",\"xbtusd\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Cryptocurrency Market News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"copyrightYear\":\"2023\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-poised-for-potential-major-buy-signal-in-july\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-poised-for-potential-major-buy-signal-in-july\/\",\"name\":\"Bitcoin Poised For Potential Major Buy Signal In July\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-poised-for-potential-major-buy-signal-in-july\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-poised-for-potential-major-buy-signal-in-july\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0195FECF-5AF3-4E5F-BE34-C98D418CD763.jpeg?fit=2084%2C1438\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-06-28T22:34:55+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T10:07:49+00:00\",\"description\":\"Bitcoin's move back above its 20-month simple moving average (20-month SMA) may deserve far more attention than it's getting. 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