{"id":541787,"date":"2023-07-09T17:05:40","date_gmt":"2023-07-09T17:05:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=541787"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:13:57","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:13:57","slug":"narrow-bitcoin-price-range-suggests-explosive-move-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/narrow-bitcoin-price-range-suggests-explosive-move-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Narrow Bitcoin Price Range Suggests Explosive Move Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The recent deluge of spot Bitcoin ETF applications sparked a major mid-June rally for Bitcoin. While the number one crypto asset managed to conquer the 30,000 level as a result, Bitcoin&#8217;s price has otherwise fallen into a tight range in recent days and only managed a single close above 31,000. Let&#8217;s examine whether this narrow Bitcoin price range suggests a big move ahead or more sideways movement for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Another Narrow Base For Bitcoin<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Following June&#8217;s large advance, Bitcoin&#8217;s price has continued to trade sideways, falling into a tight range of less than five percent from its highest close to its lowest close over a recent fifteen day period. While not an every day occurrence, there have been thirty-six such bases in Bitcoin&#8217;s modern history (2011 &#8211; present) if using a relatively short-term holding time of seven days. In short, it&#8217;s just another narrow base for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-541788 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/BTC-RANGE.png?resize=460%2C231\" alt=\"\" width=\"460\" height=\"231\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\">Bitcoin Daily Chart\u00a0 | BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/under-the-radar-bullish-bitcoin-moving-average-crossover-looks-imminent\/?swcfpc=1\"> Under-The-Radar Bullish Bitcoin Moving Average Crossover Looks Imminent<\/a><\/div>\n<p>What does this recent tight base suggest for Bitcoin&#8217;s price? To find out, we&#8217;ll look at all signals since 2011, adding an extra condition which better describes current market conditions with respect to Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Potential Big Move In 90 Days<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>In addition to requiring a range of less than five percent from its highest close to its lowest close over a fifteen day period, our extra condition requires that Bitcoin&#8217;s price also closes above its 200MA. This additional condition filters out narrow bases during periods of downward price momentum and better describes Bitcoin&#8217;s current technical state amid an improving macro environment.<\/p>\n<p>The holding time graphic below illustrates Bitcoin&#8217;s historical tendency for only modest gains in the short-term, with an unimpressive +0.5% average hypothetical trade using a 7-day hold, a meager +3.4% average trade using a 15-day hold, and a more respectable 8.2% average trade using a 30-day hold.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-541789 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/HOLD-TIMES.png?resize=458%2C460\" alt=\"\" width=\"458\" height=\"460\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\">Bitcoin Holding Time Stats\u00a0 | SOURCE: Tableau<\/p>\n<p>Beyond the short-term time horizon, however, Bitcoin&#8217;s history suggests a much brighter outlook with a slightly longer 60-day holding time, returning a +28.5% average trade from 2011 to the present. From a more intermediate-term perspective, however, the 90-day hold time sees Bitcoin&#8217;s average trade stats jump meaningfully higher to +46.7%.<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-poised-for-potential-major-buy-signal-in-july\/?swcfpc=1\">Bitcoin Poised For Potential Major Buy Signal In July<\/a><\/div>\n<div>While the past doesn&#8217;t predict future, based on our analysis, a similar result for Bitcoin going forward would put BTCUSD at 44,752 by early October, roughly three months away. While the prospect of a looming recession and continued regulatory uncertainty for the crypto industry in the U.S. may dampen this prospect, history suggests the potential for a big move ahead in the intermediate-term future.<\/div>\n<p>DB the Quant is the author of the <a href=\"https:\/\/rektelligence.substack.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">REKTelligence Report<\/a> newsletter on Substack. Follow <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/rektelligence?s=21&amp;t=MTrDR-nCiRRkbzbRMFRc0Q\" rel=\"nofollow\">@REKTelligence<\/a> on Twitter for evidence-based crypto market research and analysis. Important Note: This content is strictly educational in nature and should not be considered investment advice. Featured images created with Tableau. Charts from TradingView.com.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The recent deluge of spot Bitcoin ETF applications sparked a major mid-June rally for Bitcoin. While the number one crypto asset managed to conquer the 30,000 level as a result, Bitcoin&#8217;s price has otherwise fallen into a tight range in recent days and only managed a single close above 31,000. Let&#8217;s examine whether this narrow Bitcoin price range suggests a big move ahead or more sideways movement for the foreseeable future. Another Narrow Base For Bitcoin Following June&#8217;s large advance, Bitcoin&#8217;s price has continued to trade sideways, falling into a tight range of less than five percent from its highest close to its lowest close over a recent fifteen day period. While not an every day occurrence, there have been thirty-six such bases in Bitcoin&#8217;s modern history (2011 &#8211; present) if using a relatively short-term holding time of seven days. In short, it&#8217;s just another narrow base for Bitcoin. Bitcoin Daily Chart\u00a0 | BTCUSD on TradingView.com Related Reading: Under-The-Radar Bullish Bitcoin Moving Average Crossover Looks Imminent What does this recent tight base suggest for Bitcoin&#8217;s price? To find out, we&#8217;ll look at all signals since 2011, adding an extra condition which better describes current market conditions with respect to Bitcoin. Potential Big Move In 90 Days In addition to requiring a range of less than five percent from its highest close to its lowest close over a fifteen day period, our extra condition requires that Bitcoin&#8217;s price also closes above its 200MA. This additional condition filters out narrow bases during periods of downward price momentum and better describes Bitcoin&#8217;s current technical state amid an improving macro environment. The holding time graphic below illustrates Bitcoin&#8217;s historical tendency for only modest gains in the short-term, with an unimpressive +0.5% average hypothetical trade using a 7-day hold, a meager +3.4% average trade using a 15-day hold, and a more respectable 8.2% average trade using a 30-day hold. Bitcoin Holding Time Stats\u00a0 | SOURCE: Tableau Beyond the short-term time horizon, however, Bitcoin&#8217;s history suggests a much brighter outlook with a slightly longer 60-day holding time, returning a +28.5% average trade from 2011 to the present. From a more intermediate-term perspective, however, the 90-day hold time sees Bitcoin&#8217;s average trade stats jump meaningfully higher to +46.7%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Poised For Potential Major Buy Signal In July While the past doesn&#8217;t predict future, based on our analysis, a similar result for Bitcoin going forward would put BTCUSD at 44,752 by early October, roughly three months away. While the prospect of a looming recession and continued regulatory uncertainty for the crypto industry in the U.S. may dampen this prospect, history suggests the potential for a big move ahead in the intermediate-term future. DB the Quant is the author of the REKTelligence Report newsletter on Substack. Follow @REKTelligence on Twitter for evidence-based crypto market research and analysis. Important Note: This content is strictly educational in nature and should not be considered investment advice. Featured images created with Tableau. Charts from TradingView.com.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":597,"featured_media":451346,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,755,1119,1144,78790,4524,76835,79241],"class_list":["post-541787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-technical-analysis","tag-btc","tag-btcusd","tag-btcusdt","tag-xbt","tag-xbtusd","tag-xbtusdt"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>Narrow Bitcoin Price Range Suggests Big Move Ahead<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin&#039;s price has fallen into a tight range in recent days and only managed a single close above 31000. 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Let&#039;s examine whether this narrow Bitcoin price range suggests a big move ahead or more sideways movement for the foreseeable future.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/narrow-bitcoin-price-range-suggests-explosive-move-ahead\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"NewsBTC\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/newsbtc\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-07-09T17:05:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-06-11T08:13:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/bitcoin-explosive-volatility-bollinger-bands-Depositphotos_178306684_xl-2015-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1709\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1709\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"dbthequant\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@newsbtc\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@newsbtc\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"dbthequant\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/narrow-bitcoin-price-range-suggests-explosive-move-ahead\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/narrow-bitcoin-price-range-suggests-explosive-move-ahead\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"dbthequant\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6d8495042b08b38872f84ebe4ade49aa\"},\"headline\":\"Narrow Bitcoin Price Range Suggests Explosive Move Ahead\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-09T17:05:40+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T08:13:57+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/narrow-bitcoin-price-range-suggests-explosive-move-ahead\/\"},\"wordCount\":505,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/narrow-bitcoin-price-range-suggests-explosive-move-ahead\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/bitcoin-explosive-volatility-bollinger-bands-Depositphotos_178306684_xl-2015-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1709\",\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin technical analysis\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\",\"BTCUSDT\",\"xbt\",\"xbtusd\",\"xbtusdt\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Cryptocurrency Market News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"copyrightYear\":\"2023\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/narrow-bitcoin-price-range-suggests-explosive-move-ahead\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/narrow-bitcoin-price-range-suggests-explosive-move-ahead\/\",\"name\":\"Narrow Bitcoin Price Range Suggests Big Move Ahead\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/narrow-bitcoin-price-range-suggests-explosive-move-ahead\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/narrow-bitcoin-price-range-suggests-explosive-move-ahead\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/bitcoin-explosive-volatility-bollinger-bands-Depositphotos_178306684_xl-2015-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1709\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-09T17:05:40+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T08:13:57+00:00\",\"description\":\"Bitcoin's price has fallen into a tight range in recent days and only managed a single close above 31000. 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