{"id":542302,"date":"2023-07-12T07:40:30","date_gmt":"2023-07-12T07:40:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=542302"},"modified":"2024-06-11T10:43:28","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T10:43:28","slug":"bitcoin-braces-cpi-figures-btc-rally-or-retreat-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-braces-cpi-figures-btc-rally-or-retreat-today\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Market Braces For CPI Figures: Will BTC Rally Or Retreat Today?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June is set to be released today at 8:30 am EST, the Bitcoin (BTC) market finds itself at a crucial crossroads. With inflation concerns lingering and the Federal Reserve&#8217;s next moves under scrutiny, market participants eagerly await the impact of the CPI figures on BTC&#8217;s price trajectory. The expectations are as follows:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Headline y\/y at 3.1% (last 4.0%)<\/li>\n<li>Headline m\/m at 0.3% (last 0.1%)<\/li>\n<li>Core CPI y\/y of 5.0% (last 5.3%)<\/li>\n<li>Core CPI m\/m of 0.3% (last 0.4%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>The Fed&#8217;s Battle Against Inflation<\/h2>\n<p>In recent months, inflationary pressures have been a cause for concern, capturing the attention of investors and economists alike. While headline inflation is cooling off fast and expected to fall further to 3.1% (from 4.0% in May), it is the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, that has become increasingly important.<\/p>\n<p>In recent public appearances, members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) have maintained a hawkish stance and expressed concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation regarding the elevated core inflation. The underlying concern stems from the fact that inflation has primarily declined due to resolving supply chain problems, while core inflation remains elevated.<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-crypto-investors-monitor-dxy-6x-ahead\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Bitcoin And Crypto Investors Must Monitor The DXY: 6x Rally Ahead?<\/a><\/div>\n<p>The rise in wages could contribute to a cycle of increasing sticky core inflation. Although core CPI was at 5.3% in May, experts now anticipate a gradual decline to 5.0% in June. While this is progress, it shows how sticky core inflation currently remains. An unexpectedly sharp drop would therefore be extremely bullish.<\/p>\n<p>Any number below expectation could lead to a rally in the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets, as Christopher Inks, renowned trader and psychology coach, tweeted:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>CPI will be released with a large expected drop from 4% last time to 3.1% expected this time around for the headline number. If core CPI comes in below 5%, that would be huge, and you better hold onto your britches. Will used car sales send core down much greater than expected?<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>A surprise in core inflation could have a significant impact on the next rate hike decision by the Fed. The next FOMC meeting is on July 26. At the moment, the CME FedWatch tool predicts with 92.4% a 25 bps rate hike which is holding back the markets. This probability is likely to drop massively if the core CPI surprises to the downside.<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-mid-cycle-point-historical-pattern-repeating\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Bitcoin At Mid-Cycle Point: Historical Pattern Repeating Itself?<\/a><\/div>\n<p>As usual, JP Morgan has drawn up a game plan for the S&amp;P 500 in view of today&#8217;s release of the Consumer Price Index. According to the banking giant, a drop in the CPI to 3%-3.2% has the highest probability at 45%. The S&amp;P 500 could then gain between 0.5-0.75%.<\/p>\n<p>The second-highest probability is given by JP Morgan to a drop in the headline CPI to 2.8% to 2.9% (25%). In this case, the S&amp;P 500 could rise by 1.5-1.75%. Moreover, the banking giant gives a 10% chance to a fall of the CPI to 2.7% or lower, while a surpassing of the forecasted reading (above 3.3%) is just at 20%.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_542311\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-542311\" style=\"width: 896px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-542311 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/F0yaOsSWAAULiQ7.jpg?resize=896%2C779\" alt=\"JP Morgan game plan on CPI day\" width=\"896\" height=\"779\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/F0yaOsSWAAULiQ7.jpg?w=896 896w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/F0yaOsSWAAULiQ7.jpg?w=460 460w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/F0yaOsSWAAULiQ7.jpg?w=768 768w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/F0yaOsSWAAULiQ7.jpg?w=860 860w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/F0yaOsSWAAULiQ7.jpg?w=750 750w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 896px) 100vw, 896px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-542311\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">JP Morgan game plan on CPI day | Source: Twitter <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/StockMKTNewz\/status\/50215937\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">@StockMKTNewz<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Potential Scenarios For Bitcoin<\/h2>\n<p>If the CPI figures come in higher than expected, signaling elevated inflationary pressures, BTC could face a temporary retreat. In the case of CPI falling within the predicted range, BTC&#8217;s response may be moderate. Investors will closely monitor the data for signs of sustained inflation, potentially resulting in a slight dip in Bitcoin&#8217;s price.<\/p>\n<p>A lower-than-anticipated CPI figure, suggesting easing inflationary pressures, could ignite a bullish rally in BTC. Investors may perceive this as a positive signal which is signaling a continued rate pause by the Fed. A lower-than-expected core CPI reading has the potential to provide a much-needed boost for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>At press time, the Bitcoin price has managed to break above the mid-range resistance, trading at $30,767.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_542312\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-542312\" style=\"width: 3628px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-542312 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/BTCUSD_2023-07-12_09-12-22.png?resize=3628%2C1672\" alt=\"Bitcoin price\" width=\"3628\" height=\"1672\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/BTCUSD_2023-07-12_09-12-22.png?w=3628 3628w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/BTCUSD_2023-07-12_09-12-22.png?w=460 460w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/BTCUSD_2023-07-12_09-12-22.png?w=768 768w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/BTCUSD_2023-07-12_09-12-22.png?w=860 860w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/BTCUSD_2023-07-12_09-12-22.png?w=1536 1536w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/BTCUSD_2023-07-12_09-12-22.png?w=2048 2048w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/BTCUSD_2023-07-12_09-12-22.png?w=750 750w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/BTCUSD_2023-07-12_09-12-22.png?w=1140 1140w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/BTCUSD_2023-07-12_09-12-22.png?w=3000 3000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-542312\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">BTC above mid-range resistance, 4-hour chart | Source:<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/L1e8KcGB\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\"> BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"disclaimer-shortcode\">Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June is set to be released today at 8:30 am EST, the Bitcoin (BTC) market finds itself at a crucial crossroads. With inflation concerns lingering and the Federal Reserve&#8217;s next moves under scrutiny, market participants eagerly await the impact of the CPI figures on BTC&#8217;s price trajectory. The expectations are as follows: Headline y\/y at 3.1% (last 4.0%) Headline m\/m at 0.3% (last 0.1%) Core CPI y\/y of 5.0% (last 5.3%) Core CPI m\/m of 0.3% (last 0.4%) The Fed&#8217;s Battle Against Inflation In recent months, inflationary pressures have been a cause for concern, capturing the attention of investors and economists alike. While headline inflation is cooling off fast and expected to fall further to 3.1% (from 4.0% in May), it is the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, that has become increasingly important. In recent public appearances, members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) have maintained a hawkish stance and expressed concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation regarding the elevated core inflation. The underlying concern stems from the fact that inflation has primarily declined due to resolving supply chain problems, while core inflation remains elevated. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Crypto Investors Must Monitor The DXY: 6x Rally Ahead? The rise in wages could contribute to a cycle of increasing sticky core inflation. Although core CPI was at 5.3% in May, experts now anticipate a gradual decline to 5.0% in June. While this is progress, it shows how sticky core inflation currently remains. An unexpectedly sharp drop would therefore be extremely bullish. Any number below expectation could lead to a rally in the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets, as Christopher Inks, renowned trader and psychology coach, tweeted: CPI will be released with a large expected drop from 4% last time to 3.1% expected this time around for the headline number. If core CPI comes in below 5%, that would be huge, and you better hold onto your britches. Will used car sales send core down much greater than expected? A surprise in core inflation could have a significant impact on the next rate hike decision by the Fed. The next FOMC meeting is on July 26. At the moment, the CME FedWatch tool predicts with 92.4% a 25 bps rate hike which is holding back the markets. This probability is likely to drop massively if the core CPI surprises to the downside. Related Reading: Bitcoin At Mid-Cycle Point: Historical Pattern Repeating Itself? As usual, JP Morgan has drawn up a game plan for the S&amp;P 500 in view of today&#8217;s release of the Consumer Price Index. According to the banking giant, a drop in the CPI to 3%-3.2% has the highest probability at 45%. The S&amp;P 500 could then gain between 0.5-0.75%. The second-highest probability is given by JP Morgan to a drop in the headline CPI to 2.8% to 2.9% (25%). In this case, the S&amp;P 500 could rise by 1.5-1.75%. Moreover, the banking giant gives a 10% chance to a fall of the CPI to 2.7% or lower, while a surpassing of the forecasted reading (above 3.3%) is just at 20%. Potential Scenarios For Bitcoin If the CPI figures come in higher than expected, signaling elevated inflationary pressures, BTC could face a temporary retreat. In the case of CPI falling within the predicted range, BTC&#8217;s response may be moderate. Investors will closely monitor the data for signs of sustained inflation, potentially resulting in a slight dip in Bitcoin&#8217;s price. A lower-than-anticipated CPI figure, suggesting easing inflationary pressures, could ignite a bullish rally in BTC. Investors may perceive this as a positive signal which is signaling a continued rate pause by the Fed. A lower-than-expected core CPI reading has the potential to provide a much-needed boost for Bitcoin. At press time, the Bitcoin price has managed to break above the mid-range resistance, trading at $30,767. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":542304,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,1119,84888,6664,2007],"class_list":["post-542302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-cpi","tag-crypto","tag-fed"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>Bitcoin Market Braces For CPI: Will BTC Rally Or Retreat Today?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As CPI data for June is set to be released today at 8:30 am EST, the Bitcoin (BTC) market finds itself at a crucial crossroads.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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Simmons\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b1c6e6bccf4fbe757cbc0396eeac0abf?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b1c6e6bccf4fbe757cbc0396eeac0abf?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Jake Simmons\"},\"description\":\"Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with wncen.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. 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Through his extensive work with wncen.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. 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His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. 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