{"id":544886,"date":"2023-07-28T19:00:56","date_gmt":"2023-07-28T19:00:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=544886"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:17:00","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:17:00","slug":"stanford-mba-explains-why-next-bitcoin-cycle-could-be-bigger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/stanford-mba-explains-why-next-bitcoin-cycle-could-be-bigger\/","title":{"rendered":"Stanford MBA Explains Why Next Bitcoin Cycle Could Be “Bigger”"},"content":{"rendered":"

A Stanford MBA has explained why the current Bitcoin cycle was different from the others, and why the next one could end up being bigger.<\/p>\n

This Bitcoin Cycle Faced Obstacles That May Not Be There Next Time<\/h2>\n

A “cycle” for Bitcoin refers to the period between two consecutive halvings. The halvings<\/a>, events where the rewards miners receive for solving blocks on the network are permanently slashed in half, are chosen as the start and end points for the cycles due to the immense significance they hold for the cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n

The rewards miners earn are essentially the only way new supply can be introduced into circulation, so since halvings cut these in half, the production rate of the asset itself gets tightened.<\/p>\n

Because of basic supply-demand dynamics, Bitcoin’s post-halving scarcity increases the asset’s valuation. It’s not a coincidence that the bull markets have always followed these special events.<\/p>\n

The halvings occur roughly every four years, with the next one being scheduled for next year. As BTC transitions towards a new cycle, Jesse Myers, a Stanford MBA, has released a new post<\/a> that looks back at this cycle so far and compares it with the previous cycles.<\/p>\n

At first sight, one difference becomes immediately clear: the structure of the top during this past bull market wasn’t anything like what the previous cycles displayed.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

How the previous halving cycles looked like at the current stage | Source: Once-In-A-Species<\/a><\/pre>\n
“Instead of a parabolic advance culminating in a blow-off top, we got a bi-modal rounded top spread out over six months,” notes Myers. So, why did the BTC price behave differently during this bull market?<\/p>\n
Well, there are mainly four factors at play here. The first and undoubtedly the biggest one would be COVID-19 and the US government’s response to it. The onset of the virus and the black swan crash that came with it just preceded the cycle, meaning that the cycle kicked off in anomalous conditions.<\/p>\n
During the cycle itself, the Fed was giving out stimulus checks as a way to mitigate the economic impacts of COVID. “That Quantitative Easing (QE) undoubtedly helped fuel the 2021 Bitcoin bull market,” explains the Stanford MBA.<\/p>\n
The problem came, however, when the Fed changed its policy and switched to Quantitative Tightening (QT). Interestingly, this switch appears to be what marked the Bitcoin top in November 2021.<\/p>\n
In the middle of all this, another factor was also at play: the May 2021 China ban<\/a> on Bitcoin mining. Back then, China was the biggest hub of cryptocurrency mining, so the ban naturally delivered a significant shock to the sector.<\/p>\n
The resulting selling pressure crashed the market, leading to the bull rally prematurely halting. It wasn’t until three months later that bullish winds once again returned for the asset.<\/p>\n
While these factors have been quite influential for BTC, it’s apparent that they are unlikely to repeat, meaning they shouldn’t have any presence in the next cycle.<\/p>\n
On the contrary, the other two factors that made this cycle different are likely to appear in the next cycle as well. This previous bull market was the first one where investors widely used leveraged futures trading. Probably, leverage would again come into play in the next bull market.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: PEPE Whales Load Up Their Bags As Memecoin Jumps 13%<\/a><\/div>\n
Lastly, there is the fact that platforms like FTX issue a lot of “paper Bitcoin.” Supply equivalent to 25% of the mined BTC that year was owned by FTX’s customers, but this BTC didn’t exist; it was only there on “paper.” The analyst believes that such fudging will likely be present during the upcoming cycle.<\/p>\n
While there had been some developments in this cycle that ultimately shortened the bull market, some changes can be favorable for the next cycle.<\/p>\n
The Bitcoin supply is quickly moving off exchanges<\/a>, and the HODLers getting hold of the majority of the supply<\/a> has often been making the news recently. Still, there is another super exciting factor.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
Accumulation from the small investors | Source: Once-In-A-Species<\/a><\/pre>\n
According to this chart from Glassnode, the relatively small entities on the network (holding less than 100 BTC) have been accumulating 275% of all Bitcoin being mined.<\/p>\n
The fact that this rate is more than 100% suggests that the smaller investors are taking coins off the likes of whales. “This has never happened before. We have reached some kind of inflection point,” says Mjers.<\/p>\n
Soon the halving will occur, and this supply shock brewing in the market will only get tighter. Perhaps the smaller investors are looking to get in before this happens.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally May Not Resume Until This Happens<\/a><\/div>\n
Mjers mentions, however, that these individuals aren’t the only ones catching on; asset managers like Blackrock are also coming around and pushing to get themselves into the industry.<\/p>\n
As mentioned before, the QT policy proved disastrous for BTC in this cycle, but a shift back towards QE may be imminent, which would naturally boost the market instead. The analyst thinks this event might coincide with the upcoming halving of the cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n
Now, based on all these factors, these are probabilities that Mjers has assigned to the different price range predictions for the next cycle:<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
The likeliness of each price range | Source: Once-In-A-Species<\/a><\/pre>\n
The Stanford MBA believes that a growth of more than 8x, a multiplier higher than what the current cycle saw, is the second most probable scenario, given all the potentially positive developments.<\/p>\n
A cycle outperforming the previous has never happened in the cryptocurrency’s history, so if this scenario happens, it would be a first.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $29,300, down 2% in the last week.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
BTC continues to move sideways | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com, onceinaspecies.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A Stanford MBA has explained why the current Bitcoin cycle was different from the others, and why the next one could end up being bigger. This Bitcoin Cycle Faced Obstacles That May Not Be There Next Time A “cycle” for Bitcoin refers to the period between two consecutive halvings. The halvings, events where the rewards miners receive for solving blocks on the network are permanently slashed in half, are chosen as the start and end points for the cycles due to the immense significance they hold for the cryptocurrency. The rewards miners earn are essentially the only way new supply can be introduced into circulation, so since halvings cut these in half, the production rate of the asset itself gets tightened. Because of basic supply-demand dynamics, Bitcoin’s post-halving scarcity increases the asset’s valuation. It’s not a coincidence that the bull markets have always followed these special events. The halvings occur roughly every four years, with the next one being scheduled for next year. As BTC transitions towards a new cycle, Jesse Myers, a Stanford MBA, has released a new post that looks back at this cycle so far and compares it with the previous cycles. At first sight, one difference becomes immediately clear: the structure of the top during this past bull market wasn’t anything like what the previous cycles displayed. How the previous halving cycles looked like at the current stage | Source: Once-In-A-Species “Instead of a parabolic advance culminating in a blow-off top, we got a bi-modal rounded top spread out over six months,” notes Myers. So, why did the BTC price behave differently during this bull market? Well, there are mainly four factors at play here. The first and undoubtedly the biggest one would be COVID-19 and the US government’s response to it. The onset of the virus and the black swan crash that came with it just preceded the cycle, meaning that the cycle kicked off in anomalous conditions. During the cycle itself, the Fed was giving out stimulus checks as a way to mitigate the economic impacts of COVID. “That Quantitative Easing (QE) undoubtedly helped fuel the 2021 Bitcoin bull market,” explains the Stanford MBA. The problem came, however, when the Fed changed its policy and switched to Quantitative Tightening (QT). Interestingly, this switch appears to be what marked the Bitcoin top in November 2021. In the middle of all this, another factor was also at play: the May 2021 China ban on Bitcoin mining. Back then, China was the biggest hub of cryptocurrency mining, so the ban naturally delivered a significant shock to the sector. The resulting selling pressure crashed the market, leading to the bull rally prematurely halting. It wasn’t until three months later that bullish winds once again returned for the asset. While these factors have been quite influential for BTC, it’s apparent that they are unlikely to repeat, meaning they shouldn’t have any presence in the next cycle. On the contrary, the other two factors that made this cycle different are likely to appear in the next cycle as well. This previous bull market was the first one where investors widely used leveraged futures trading. Probably, leverage would again come into play in the next bull market. Related Reading: PEPE Whales Load Up Their Bags As Memecoin Jumps 13% Lastly, there is the fact that platforms like FTX issue a lot of “paper Bitcoin.” Supply equivalent to 25% of the mined BTC that year was owned by FTX’s customers, but this BTC didn’t exist; it was only there on “paper.” The analyst believes that such fudging will likely be present during the upcoming cycle. While there had been some developments in this cycle that ultimately shortened the bull market, some changes can be favorable for the next cycle. The Bitcoin supply is quickly moving off exchanges, and the HODLers getting hold of the majority of the supply has often been making the news recently. Still, there is another super exciting factor. Accumulation from the small investors | Source: Once-In-A-Species According to this chart from Glassnode, the relatively small entities on the network (holding less than 100 BTC) have been accumulating 275% of all Bitcoin being mined. The fact that this rate is more than 100% suggests that the smaller investors are taking coins off the likes of whales. “This has never happened before. We have reached some kind of inflection point,” says Mjers. Soon the halving will occur, and this supply shock brewing in the market will only get tighter. Perhaps the smaller investors are looking to get in before this happens. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally May Not Resume Until This Happens Mjers mentions, however, that these individuals aren’t the only ones catching on; asset managers like Blackrock are also coming around and pushing to get themselves into the industry. As mentioned before, the QT policy proved disastrous for BTC in this cycle, but a shift back towards QE may be imminent, which would naturally boost the market instead. The analyst thinks this event might coincide with the upcoming halving of the cryptocurrency. Now, based on all these factors, these are probabilities that Mjers has assigned to the different price range predictions for the next cycle: The likeliness of each price range | Source: Once-In-A-Species The Stanford MBA believes that a growth of more than 8x, a multiplier higher than what the current cycle saw, is the second most probable scenario, given all the potentially positive developments. A cycle outperforming the previous has never happened in the cryptocurrency’s history, so if this scenario happens, it would be a first. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $29,300, down 2% in the last week. BTC continues to move sideways | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com, onceinaspecies.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":544913,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,85674,86606,1119,1144,14103,88731],"class_list":["post-544886","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bull-rally","tag-bitcoin-cycle","tag-btc","tag-btcusd","tag-stanford","tag-stanford-mba"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nStanford MBA Explains Why Next Bitcoin Cycle Could Be "Bigger"<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A Stanford MBA has explained why the current Bitcoin cycle was different from the others, and why the next one could end up being bigger.\" 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. 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