{"id":545977,"date":"2023-08-07T10:00:52","date_gmt":"2023-08-07T10:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=545977"},"modified":"2024-06-11T14:39:20","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T14:39:20","slug":"low-bitcoin-volatility-masks-underlying-dynamics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/low-bitcoin-volatility-masks-underlying-dynamics\/","title":{"rendered":"Behind The Quiet: Low Bitcoin Volatility Masks Underlying Market Dynamics"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the world of Bitcoin, silence is not always golden. The recent weeks have seen Bitcoin’s price volatility drop to historical lows, with the BTC price trading mostly between $29,000 and $30,000. However, beneath this placid surface, a number of intriguing market dynamics are at play.<\/p>\n

“Realized volatility for Bitcoin has collapsed to historical lows. Across 1-month to 1yr timeframes, this is the quietest we have seen the corn since after March 2020. Historically, such low volatility aligns with the post-bear-market hangover periods (re-accumulation phase),” stated Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin volatility | Source: Twitter @_Checkmatey_<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The chart shared by Checkmate shows that annualized realized volatility resembles the post-bear era for Bitcoin from March 2020 when volatility was at 47%. Currently, 1-year volatility sits at 49.1%, 3-month volatility at 35.5%, and 1-month volatility at 22.9%.<\/p>\n

Quit Before The Storm For Bitcoin<\/h2>\n

However, the low volatility is not the only story. Checkmate also highlighted a new all-time high for Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply, now at 14.59M BTC, which accounts for 75% of the circulating supply. This shows that an increasingly high number of Bitcoin investors are convinced of a future rally, leading to a supply shortage, while high risk traders are washed out of the market due to lacking volatility.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Points To Bitcoin Price History Repeating Itself \u2013 Are The Signs Bullish?<\/a><\/div>\n

Simultaneously, there’s a surge in institutional positioning; volume and open interest of the CME Bitcoin futures have reached a 20-month high in July. Despite the Bitcoin spot markets recording low volumes, the CME futures saw the highest volume since January 2022, with $55.8 billion in July.<\/p>\n

\"Volume
Volume and OI of CME Bitcoin futures | Source: Coinglass<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The CTFC data reveals a fascinating slugfest between two investor groups. Asset managers are $1.2 billion net long, while hedge funds are net short by -$980 million. This standoff suggests an imminent breakout in Bitcoin’s price, potentially leaving one of these groups with burnt fingers.<\/p>\n

On-chain analyst Ali Martinez provided<\/a> further insight: “Even as Bitcoin dropped from $32,000 to $29,000, the number of new BTC addresses steadily rose! This bullish divergence between price and network growth hints at a stable long-term BTC uptrend. Buy the dip!”<\/p>\n

Indeed, the current low volatility phase is not without precedent or predictive power. Renowned analyst @CryptoCon provides a compelling perspective on this, stating that such periods of sideways price action are not only normal but potentially bullish.<\/p>\n

“Bitcoin sideways price action at this point in the cycle is completely normal! The 2 Week Mass Index crosses into the golden pocket at the most stagnant cycle points, just before massive bullish moves. Data everywhere points to the same conclusion: Low volatility is bullish,” CryptoCon tweeted<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin mass index golden pocket | Source: Twitter @CryptoCon<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder VC, also shared his perspective on the current market dynamics. “Currently, tourists are inactive while residents are accumulating swiftly, owning 74.8% of all supply. That’s consistent with an early-stage bull market. Thirty percent of BTC has left for cold storage since 2020, leaving exchanges with 2.26 million. Bitcoin seems fairly valued relative to the number of active entities on the network.”<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Tether May Now Be 11th Largest Bitcoin Holder, Analyst Says<\/a><\/div>\n

Burniske’s simplified price\/cycle model projects Bitcoin to reach near $39,000 by the fourth quarter of 2023 and $92,000 (base scenario) by Q4 2025 with entities above 600,000.<\/p>\n

In conclusion, the current low volatility phase of Bitcoin may seem uneventful on the surface, but the underlying market dynamics suggest a different story. The tug-of-war between asset managers and hedge funds, the steady rise in new BTC addresses, and the swift accumulation by long-term holders all hint at a brewing storm.<\/p>\n

At press time, the Bitcoin price was at $29,076.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC above $29k, 4-hour chart | Source BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the world of Bitcoin, silence is not always golden. The recent weeks have seen Bitcoin’s price volatility drop to historical lows, with the BTC price trading mostly between $29,000 and $30,000. However, beneath this placid surface, a number of intriguing market dynamics are at play. “Realized volatility for Bitcoin has collapsed to historical lows. Across 1-month to 1yr timeframes, this is the quietest we have seen the corn since after March 2020. Historically, such low volatility aligns with the post-bear-market hangover periods (re-accumulation phase),” stated Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode. The chart shared by Checkmate shows that annualized realized volatility resembles the post-bear era for Bitcoin from March 2020 when volatility was at 47%. Currently, 1-year volatility sits at 49.1%, 3-month volatility at 35.5%, and 1-month volatility at 22.9%. Quit Before The Storm For Bitcoin However, the low volatility is not the only story. Checkmate also highlighted a new all-time high for Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply, now at 14.59M BTC, which accounts for 75% of the circulating supply. This shows that an increasingly high number of Bitcoin investors are convinced of a future rally, leading to a supply shortage, while high risk traders are washed out of the market due to lacking volatility. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Points To Bitcoin Price History Repeating Itself \u2013 Are The Signs Bullish? Simultaneously, there’s a surge in institutional positioning; volume and open interest of the CME Bitcoin futures have reached a 20-month high in July. Despite the Bitcoin spot markets recording low volumes, the CME futures saw the highest volume since January 2022, with $55.8 billion in July. The CTFC data reveals a fascinating slugfest between two investor groups. Asset managers are $1.2 billion net long, while hedge funds are net short by -$980 million. This standoff suggests an imminent breakout in Bitcoin’s price, potentially leaving one of these groups with burnt fingers. On-chain analyst Ali Martinez provided further insight: “Even as Bitcoin dropped from $32,000 to $29,000, the number of new BTC addresses steadily rose! This bullish divergence between price and network growth hints at a stable long-term BTC uptrend. Buy the dip!” Indeed, the current low volatility phase is not without precedent or predictive power. Renowned analyst @CryptoCon provides a compelling perspective on this, stating that such periods of sideways price action are not only normal but potentially bullish. “Bitcoin sideways price action at this point in the cycle is completely normal! The 2 Week Mass Index crosses into the golden pocket at the most stagnant cycle points, just before massive bullish moves. Data everywhere points to the same conclusion: Low volatility is bullish,” CryptoCon tweeted. Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder VC, also shared his perspective on the current market dynamics. “Currently, tourists are inactive while residents are accumulating swiftly, owning 74.8% of all supply. That’s consistent with an early-stage bull market. Thirty percent of BTC has left for cold storage since 2020, leaving exchanges with 2.26 million. Bitcoin seems fairly valued relative to the number of active entities on the network.” Related Reading: Tether May Now Be 11th Largest Bitcoin Holder, Analyst Says Burniske’s simplified price\/cycle model projects Bitcoin to reach near $39,000 by the fourth quarter of 2023 and $92,000 (base scenario) by Q4 2025 with entities above 600,000. In conclusion, the current low volatility phase of Bitcoin may seem uneventful on the surface, but the underlying market dynamics suggest a different story. The tug-of-war between asset managers and hedge funds, the steady rise in new BTC addresses, and the swift accumulation by long-term holders all hint at a brewing storm. At press time, the Bitcoin price was at $29,076. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":545995,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,790,1119,11529],"class_list":["post-545977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-volatility","tag-btc","tag-cme"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBehind The Quiet: Low Bitcoin Volatility Masks Market Dynamics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The recent weeks have seen Bitcoin's price volatility drop to historical lows, with the BTC price trading mostly between $29,000 and $30,000.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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Through his extensive work with wncen.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/realJakeSimmons"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/marcusmisiak\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Behind The Quiet: Low Bitcoin Volatility Masks Underlying Market Dynamics","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/low-bitcoin-volatility-masks-underlying-dynamics\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/low-bitcoin-volatility-masks-underlying-dynamics\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/iStock-1255216496.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/iStock-1255216496.jpg?fit=1254%2C836"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Jake Simmons"}],"creator":["Jake Simmons"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin volatility","btc","cme"],"dateCreated":"2023-08-07T10:00:52Z","datePublished":"2023-08-07T10:00:52Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T14:39:20Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Behind The Quiet: Low Bitcoin Volatility Masks Underlying Market Dynamics\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/low-bitcoin-volatility-masks-underlying-dynamics\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/low-bitcoin-volatility-masks-underlying-dynamics\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/08\\\/iStock-1255216496.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/08\\\/iStock-1255216496.jpg?fit=1254%2C836\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Jake Simmons\"}],\"creator\":[\"Jake Simmons\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin volatility\",\"btc\",\"cme\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-08-07T10:00:52Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-08-07T10:00:52Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T14:39:20Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/iStock-1255216496.jpg?fit=1254%2C836","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545977","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/571"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=545977"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545977\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/545995"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=545977"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=545977"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=545977"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}