{"id":548731,"date":"2023-08-24T20:00:52","date_gmt":"2023-08-24T20:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=548731"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:05:23","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:05:23","slug":"bitcoin-bottom-btc-not-fulfilling-this-historical-pattern-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-bottom-btc-not-fulfilling-this-historical-pattern-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Bottom: BTC Not Fulfilling This Historical Pattern Yet"},"content":{"rendered":"

On-chain data shows Bitcoin is currently not satisfying a condition that has historically occurred alongside major bottoms in the price.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Supply In Profit Is Still Greater Than Supply In Loss<\/h2>\n

In a new post<\/a> on X, James V. Straten, a research and data analyst, has pointed out how BTC isn’t fulfilling the bottom condition for the supply in profit and loss metrics.<\/p>\n

The “supply in profit<\/a>” here naturally refers to the total amount of Bitcoin supply currently carrying an unrealized profit. Similarly, the “supply in loss<\/a>” keeps track of the number of underwater coins.<\/p>\n

These indicators work by going through the on-chain history of each coin in circulation to see what price it was last transferred at. If this previous price for any coin was less than the current BTC spot price, then that particular coin is being held at a profit, and the supply in profit adds to its value. On the other hand, the coins with a higher cost basis are counted by the supply in loss.<\/p>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in both these Bitcoin metrics over the entire history of the cryptocurrency:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Looks like the two metrics are still far apart in value currently | Source: @jimmyvs24 on X<\/a><\/pre>\n
In the graph, the analyst has highlighted a specific pattern that these two indicators have shown during historical bottoms in the cryptocurrency’s price. It would appear that the supply in profit dips below the supply in loss during these periods of lows, implying that most of the market enters into a state of loss.<\/p>\n
Generally, investors in profit are more likely to sell, so whenever the supply in profit is at very high values, tops become more probable for Bitcoin. Similarly, a large number of investors instead of being in loss should mean there wouldn’t be too many sellers left.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Reserve Shoots Up, Pain Not Over Yet?<\/a><\/div>\n
This is potentially why bottoms have historically formed when the supply in loss exceeds the supply in profit. The chart shows that the Bitcoin Supply in Profit is currently quite a distance over the supply in loss, suggesting that a decent number of coins still carry gains.<\/p>\n
To be more precise, there is a difference of six million coins between the two supplies at the moment. The current market is nowhere near fulfilling the historical bottom criteria.<\/p>\n
However, the bottoms that the pattern has generally coincided with have been the cyclical lows, observed during the worst phase of the bear markets. In the current cycle, this bottom was marked after the FTX crash<\/a> in November 2022.<\/p>\n
The only exception to this rule was in March 2020, when Bitcoin crashed due to the onset of the COVID-19 virus. This crash was an unexpected event, which may explain why it doesn’t fit in with the other bottoms.<\/p>\n
As the market at its current stage is likely already past the bear-market bottom, this supply in profit and loss pattern shouldn’t hold too much bearing on whether BTC has hit a local bottom after the recent crash.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Bitcoin NVT Flashes Buy Signal, Bottom In?<\/a><\/div>\n
If the November 2022 low wasn’t the true bear-market bottom, BTC might have more pain in store, as a significant swing in market profitability will be required before the real bottom is found.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
When writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,300, down 7% in the last seven days.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
BTC hasn't moved too much since the crash | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
On-chain data shows Bitcoin is currently not satisfying a condition that has historically occurred alongside major bottoms in the price. Bitcoin Supply In Profit Is Still Greater Than Supply In Loss In a new post on X, James V. Straten, a research and data analyst, has pointed out how BTC isn’t fulfilling the bottom condition for the supply in profit and loss metrics. The “supply in profit” here naturally refers to the total amount of Bitcoin supply currently carrying an unrealized profit. Similarly, the “supply in loss” keeps track of the number of underwater coins. These indicators work by going through the on-chain history of each coin in circulation to see what price it was last transferred at. If this previous price for any coin was less than the current BTC spot price, then that particular coin is being held at a profit, and the supply in profit adds to its value. On the other hand, the coins with a higher cost basis are counted by the supply in loss. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in both these Bitcoin metrics over the entire history of the cryptocurrency: Looks like the two metrics are still far apart in value currently | Source: @jimmyvs24 on X In the graph, the analyst has highlighted a specific pattern that these two indicators have shown during historical bottoms in the cryptocurrency’s price. It would appear that the supply in profit dips below the supply in loss during these periods of lows, implying that most of the market enters into a state of loss. Generally, investors in profit are more likely to sell, so whenever the supply in profit is at very high values, tops become more probable for Bitcoin. Similarly, a large number of investors instead of being in loss should mean there wouldn’t be too many sellers left. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Reserve Shoots Up, Pain Not Over Yet? This is potentially why bottoms have historically formed when the supply in loss exceeds the supply in profit. The chart shows that the Bitcoin Supply in Profit is currently quite a distance over the supply in loss, suggesting that a decent number of coins still carry gains. To be more precise, there is a difference of six million coins between the two supplies at the moment. The current market is nowhere near fulfilling the historical bottom criteria. However, the bottoms that the pattern has generally coincided with have been the cyclical lows, observed during the worst phase of the bear markets. In the current cycle, this bottom was marked after the FTX crash in November 2022. The only exception to this rule was in March 2020, when Bitcoin crashed due to the onset of the COVID-19 virus. This crash was an unexpected event, which may explain why it doesn’t fit in with the other bottoms. As the market at its current stage is likely already past the bear-market bottom, this supply in profit and loss pattern shouldn’t hold too much bearing on whether BTC has hit a local bottom after the recent crash. Related Reading: Bitcoin NVT Flashes Buy Signal, Bottom In? If the November 2022 low wasn’t the true bear-market bottom, BTC might have more pain in store, as a significant swing in market profitability will be required before the real bottom is found. BTC Price When writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,300, down 7% in the last seven days. BTC hasn’t moved too much since the crash | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":548739,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,27251,88653,85531,85219,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-548731","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bottom","tag-bitcoin-pattern","tag-bitcoin-supply-in-loss","tag-bitcoin-supply-in-profit","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Bottom: BTC Not Fulfilling This Historical Pattern Yet<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"On-chain data shows Bitcoin is currently not satisfying a condition that has historically occurred alongside 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Bitcoin Bottom: BTC Not Fulfilling This Historical Pattern Yet","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-bottom-btc-not-fulfilling-this-historical-pattern-yet\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-bottom-btc-not-fulfilling-this-historical-pattern-yet\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/kanchanara-9pCV2MB65y8-unsplash-2.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/kanchanara-9pCV2MB65y8-unsplash-2.jpg?fit=6000%2C4000"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin bottom","bitcoin pattern","bitcoin supply in loss","bitcoin supply in profit","btc","btcusd"],"dateCreated":"2023-08-24T20:00:52Z","datePublished":"2023-08-24T20:00:52Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T08:05:23Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Bitcoin Bottom: BTC Not Fulfilling This Historical Pattern Yet\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-bottom-btc-not-fulfilling-this-historical-pattern-yet\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-bottom-btc-not-fulfilling-this-historical-pattern-yet\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/08\\\/kanchanara-9pCV2MB65y8-unsplash-2.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/08\\\/kanchanara-9pCV2MB65y8-unsplash-2.jpg?fit=6000%2C4000\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin bottom\",\"bitcoin pattern\",\"bitcoin supply in loss\",\"bitcoin supply in profit\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-08-24T20:00:52Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-08-24T20:00:52Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T08:05:23Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/kanchanara-9pCV2MB65y8-unsplash-2.jpg?fit=6000%2C4000","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/548731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=548731"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/548731\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/548739"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=548731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=548731"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=548731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}