{"id":552493,"date":"2023-09-22T15:00:48","date_gmt":"2023-09-22T15:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=552493"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:00:06","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:00:06","slug":"bitcoin-bull-run-begin-ratio-reverses-trend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-bull-run-begin-ratio-reverses-trend\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Bull Run May Not Begin Until This Ratio Reverses Trend"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bitcoin bull run may not start properly until this on-chain ratio reverses the trajectory it is currently going in.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin RHODL Ratio Is Currently Showing A “Dead Cat Bounce”<\/h2>\n

As analyst James V. Straten explained in a post on X<\/a>, the BTC RHODL ratio may contain hints about when the cryptocurrency’s next bull run could be coming.<\/p>\n

The “Realized HODL ratio<\/a>” (RHODL) here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the value held by the investors holding since 6 months and 3 years ago and that held by the 1 day to 3 months old holders.<\/p>\n

These former investors make up a segment of the larger “long-term holder<\/a>” (LTH) group. More specifically, this part of the group may be termed the “single cycle LTHs” since their holding range is inside the span of a BTC cycle (typically four years).<\/p>\n

The other investors, those holding since 1 day and 3 months ago, represent the youngest members of the “short-term holder<\/a>” (STH) cohort. The entire STH group has its cutoff at the six-month mark, where the LTH group naturally begins.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Binance & Deribit Traders Aggressively Short Bitcoin, Squeeze Incoming?<\/a><\/div>\n

As the RHODL ratio compares the value held by these two cohorts, its trend can provide hints about how the rotation of capital occurs in the market.<\/p>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin RHODL ratio over the history of the cryptocurrency:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

The value of the metric seems to have sharply gone down in recent months | Source: @jimmyvs24 on X<\/a><\/pre>\n
The above graph shows that the Bitcoin RHODL ratio has followed a similar pattern in each Bitcoin cycle. The metric always hits a bottom during bull run tops and starts heading up.<\/p>\n
This increase represents a rotation of capital towards the LTHs, as the bear market setting in leads to the STHs giving up on the asset and exiting, while the persistent holders left behind accumulate more at the lower prices.<\/p>\n
This accumulation from the LTHs continues until the bear market bottom. The graph shows that the RHODL ratio has always seen its top coincide with the cyclical bottoms in the price.<\/p>\n
Due to the relief rally following the worst bear market stage, STHs return to the market and grow their holdings, while some LTHs sell their coins to take their profits.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: \u201cPaper BTC\u201d Is Counteracting A Bullish Bitcoin Supply Shock, Analyst Explains<\/a><\/div>\n
In the graph, Straten has highlighted that the indicator has been sharply going down during the past few months, just like it did in the buildup to past bull markets.<\/p>\n
As noted by the circles, though, the indicator generally experiences a sort of dead cat bounce on the way down. The indicator has recently turned towards the upside, potentially implying that this same dead cat bounce pattern is again forming.<\/p>\n
Historically, true bull markets have followed when the Bitcoin RHODL ratio has again reversed its direction following this pattern and has resumed its downtrend. A similar reversal may also be the one to watch for this time, as it could lead towards the next bull run.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin has continued to move sideways since the drop yesterday as its price continues to trade around the $26,600 mark.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
Looks like BTC has gone down recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The Bitcoin bull run may not start properly until this on-chain ratio reverses the trajectory it is currently going in. Bitcoin RHODL Ratio Is Currently Showing A “Dead Cat Bounce” As analyst James V. Straten explained in a post on X, the BTC RHODL ratio may contain hints about when the cryptocurrency’s next bull run could be coming. The “Realized HODL ratio” (RHODL) here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the value held by the investors holding since 6 months and 3 years ago and that held by the 1 day to 3 months old holders. These former investors make up a segment of the larger “long-term holder” (LTH) group. More specifically, this part of the group may be termed the “single cycle LTHs” since their holding range is inside the span of a BTC cycle (typically four years). The other investors, those holding since 1 day and 3 months ago, represent the youngest members of the “short-term holder” (STH) cohort. The entire STH group has its cutoff at the six-month mark, where the LTH group naturally begins. Related Reading: Binance & Deribit Traders Aggressively Short Bitcoin, Squeeze Incoming? As the RHODL ratio compares the value held by these two cohorts, its trend can provide hints about how the rotation of capital occurs in the market. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin RHODL ratio over the history of the cryptocurrency: The value of the metric seems to have sharply gone down in recent months | Source: @jimmyvs24 on X The above graph shows that the Bitcoin RHODL ratio has followed a similar pattern in each Bitcoin cycle. The metric always hits a bottom during bull run tops and starts heading up. This increase represents a rotation of capital towards the LTHs, as the bear market setting in leads to the STHs giving up on the asset and exiting, while the persistent holders left behind accumulate more at the lower prices. This accumulation from the LTHs continues until the bear market bottom. The graph shows that the RHODL ratio has always seen its top coincide with the cyclical bottoms in the price. Due to the relief rally following the worst bear market stage, STHs return to the market and grow their holdings, while some LTHs sell their coins to take their profits. Related Reading: \u201cPaper BTC\u201d Is Counteracting A Bullish Bitcoin Supply Shock, Analyst Explains In the graph, Straten has highlighted that the indicator has been sharply going down during the past few months, just like it did in the buildup to past bull markets. As noted by the circles, though, the indicator generally experiences a sort of dead cat bounce on the way down. The indicator has recently turned towards the upside, potentially implying that this same dead cat bounce pattern is again forming. Historically, true bull markets have followed when the Bitcoin RHODL ratio has again reversed its direction following this pattern and has resumed its downtrend. A similar reversal may also be the one to watch for this time, as it could lead towards the next bull run. BTC Price Bitcoin has continued to move sideways since the drop yesterday as its price continues to trade around the $26,600 mark. Looks like BTC has gone down recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":552546,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,85533,85735,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-552493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bull-run","tag-bitcoin-rhodl-ratio","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Bull Run May Not Begin Until This Ratio Reverses Trend<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Bitcoin bull run may not start in proper until this on-chain ratio reverses the trajectory is currently going in.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Bitcoin Bull Run May Not Begin Until This Ratio Reverses Trend","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-bull-run-begin-ratio-reverses-trend\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-bull-run-begin-ratio-reverses-trend\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/shutterstock_651598474.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/shutterstock_651598474.jpg?fit=6016%2C4016"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin bull run","bitcoin rhodl ratio","btc","btcusd"],"dateCreated":"2023-09-22T15:00:48Z","datePublished":"2023-09-22T15:00:48Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T08:00:06Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Bitcoin Bull Run May Not Begin Until This Ratio Reverses Trend\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-bull-run-begin-ratio-reverses-trend\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-bull-run-begin-ratio-reverses-trend\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/09\\\/shutterstock_651598474.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/09\\\/shutterstock_651598474.jpg?fit=6016%2C4016\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin bull run\",\"bitcoin rhodl ratio\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-09-22T15:00:48Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-09-22T15:00:48Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T08:00:06Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/shutterstock_651598474.jpg?fit=6016%2C4016","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/552493"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=552493"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/552493\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/552546"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=552493"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=552493"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=552493"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}