{"id":558120,"date":"2023-10-30T07:00:50","date_gmt":"2023-10-30T07:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=558120"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:16:22","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:16:22","slug":"november-outlook-for-bitcoin-price-another-pump-or-retrace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/november-outlook-for-bitcoin-price-another-pump-or-retrace\/","title":{"rendered":"November Outlook For Bitcoin Price: Another Pump Or Retrace?"},"content":{"rendered":"

November has often been a standout month for Bitcoin, with historical data indicating an impressive average price jump of 43%. This would propel Bitcoin to around $48,000. But with October already showing a significant price increase, the question arises: Will Bitcoin continue its bullish trend, or is a retrace on the horizon?<\/p>\n

November Monthly Returns<\/strong><\/h2>\n

November has been particularly bullish for Bitcoin over time, with an average of 43% of price increases over the years. If this trend holds true for this year, we might see Bitcoin touching $48,000.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To Reach $170,000 in 2025 \u2013 Mathematical Model Predicts<\/a><\/p>\n

However, it’s worth noting that this very high average is significantly influenced by the extreme 453% surge in 2013. If we exclude this outlier, the average settles around 11.54% This leads to a more conservative forecast, pointing to a potential rise to around $38,000.<\/p>\n

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Bitcoin monthly returns over the years. Source: intothecryptoverse<\/a><\/pre>\n
Diving deeper into historical data, 8 of the past 13 years have shown price increases in November, making another increase this month seem plausible. Yet, a closer look reveals that 4 of the last 5 times in November there was a price dip.<\/p>\n
In 2022, the FTX collapse<\/a> played a pivotal role and 2021 marked the peak<\/a> for Bitcoin, suggesting that these decreases might be outliers rather than indicative of a changing trend.<\/p>\n
For a closer comparison, 2019 stands out as it too was a pre-halving year, just like 2023. That year, after a promising October, Bitcoin saw a 17% dip in November, which would equate to a value of $28,000 if repeated this year.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin Price Action In 2023<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n
Through 2023, Bitcoin has demonstrated a recurring behavior following significant price increases of more than 20%. Typically, these surges have been followed by consolidation periods, and subsequently, a retrace<\/a> to at least half of the initial increase.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Bitcoin Season: Leading The Charge In The Crypto Market<\/a><\/p>\n
Take January, for instance. Bitcoin’s price increased from $16,500 to $24,000, only to decline to $20,000 by March – a retrace of 60% from the initial increase.<\/p>\n
One particularly extreme example was in August when Bitcoin retraced the entirety of a prior 20% rise.<\/p>\n
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Bitcoin price action in 2023. Source: BTCUSD from TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
It’s noteworthy that these retraces haven’t always been immediate. After the rise in March, it wasn’t until June – a span of three months – that the price saw a 50% retrace. On average, this year’s price retraces have taken between 1 to 3 months to manifest post-rise.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, before any retrace occurs, there’s still room for additional upside. To illustrate, after the aforementioned March rise, Bitcoin experienced an additional 10% increase before eventually retracing the initial surge.<\/p>\n
Potential Scenarios For November<\/h3>\n
Using the above, potential scenarios for November are listed below:<\/div>\n