{"id":558404,"date":"2023-10-31T16:00:44","date_gmt":"2023-10-31T16:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=558404"},"modified":"2024-06-11T14:30:36","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T14:30:36","slug":"spot-bitcoin-etf-magic-number-push-btc-40000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/spot-bitcoin-etf-magic-number-push-btc-40000\/","title":{"rendered":"Spot Bitcoin ETF: Here’s The Magic Number To Push BTC Past $40,000"},"content":{"rendered":"

David Lawant, the head of research for FalconX, an institutional crypto trading platform tailored for financial institutions, recently provided an insightful forecast regarding the future of Bitcoin (BTC) prices in light of the anticipated launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States. Sharing his predictions<\/a> via X (previously known as Twitter), he articulated the financial variables that might play a decisive role.<\/p>\n

Lawant remarked, \u201cThe next significant variable to watch in the spot BTC ETF launch saga will be how much AUM these instruments will gather once they launch. I think the market is currently expecting this inflow to be between $500 million and $1.5 billion.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Magic Number To Push Bitcoin Price Past $40,000<\/h2>\n

The crypto community is keenly anticipating<\/a> a positive nod for a Spot Bitcoin ETF either at the end of 2023 or the beginning of 2024. A crucial date on the calendar is January 10, 2024, which is set as the final deadline for the ARK\/21 Shares application, leading the current series of applications.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Could Skyrocket Like In March If This Happens: Expert<\/a><\/div>\n

Undoubtedly, a green signal from regulatory authorities for the spot ETF will be a game-changer for the entire crypto asset class. Lawant highlighted the importance of this development, stating, \u201cIt will open room for large pockets of capital that today can\u2019t properly access crypto, such as financial advisors, and bring a stamp of approval from the world’s most prominent capital markets regulator.\u201d<\/p>\n

The pressing question, though, is the immediate impact on capital inflow. \u201cThe first couple of weeks after launch will be critical to test how much appetite there is for crypto at the moment in these still relatively untapped pools of capital,\u201d Lawant emphasized.<\/p>\n

Relying on historical data, Lawant pointed out the stability of the ask side of BTC\u2019s order book, especially for prices situated above the $30,000 mark. This data allows for an approximation of how the inflow of capital might influence the price trajectory of BTC.<\/p>\n

Through various inflow scenarios squared against a spectrum of the depth of market scenarios, Lawant deduces that the market is possibly forecasting net inflows ranging between $500 million and $1.5 billion within the initial weeks post-launch.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin target prices based on net inflows | Source: X @dlawant<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Drawing conclusions from his analysis, Lawant surmised:<\/p>\n

For BTC to establish a new range between the current level and more than $40k, the total net inflows would need to amount to $1.5 billion+. On the other hand, if total net inflows come in below $500 million, we could move back to the $30k level or even below.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin To $3 Million Is \u201cA 100X From Today\u201d, And You Are Still Early: Crypto Advocate<\/a><\/div>\n

However, it\u2019s paramount to note the inherent assumptions in Lawant’s analysis. He admits, \u201cOne is that the move from $28.5k to $34.0k was entirely attributed to the market anticipating price-insensitive net inflows from the ETF launch.\u201d This means, among other things, that the current price increase was triggered neither by the correlation<\/a> with gold nor by the global crises or turmoil<\/a> in the bond market.<\/p>\n

Lawant also highlighted the potential variability in BTC price movement across the order book. Nonetheless, given the stature of issuers like BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, and Ark Invest in the SEC queue, the current favorable macroeconomic climate for alternative monetary assets, and prospective improved liquidity conditions, Lawant remains bullish about the potential BTC price rally following the ETF debut. He concluded with, \u201cceteris paribus I\u2019m still excited about how the BTC price could react to the ETF launch.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $34,542.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

David Lawant, the head of research for FalconX, an institutional crypto trading platform tailored for financial institutions, recently provided an insightful forecast regarding the future of Bitcoin (BTC) prices in light of the anticipated launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States. Sharing his predictions via X (previously known as Twitter), he articulated the financial variables that might play a decisive role. Lawant remarked, \u201cThe next significant variable to watch in the spot BTC ETF launch saga will be how much AUM these instruments will gather once they launch. I think the market is currently expecting this inflow to be between $500 million and $1.5 billion.\u201d The Magic Number To Push Bitcoin Price Past $40,000 The crypto community is keenly anticipating a positive nod for a Spot Bitcoin ETF either at the end of 2023 or the beginning of 2024. A crucial date on the calendar is January 10, 2024, which is set as the final deadline for the ARK\/21 Shares application, leading the current series of applications. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Could Skyrocket Like In March If This Happens: Expert Undoubtedly, a green signal from regulatory authorities for the spot ETF will be a game-changer for the entire crypto asset class. Lawant highlighted the importance of this development, stating, \u201cIt will open room for large pockets of capital that today can\u2019t properly access crypto, such as financial advisors, and bring a stamp of approval from the world’s most prominent capital markets regulator.\u201d The pressing question, though, is the immediate impact on capital inflow. \u201cThe first couple of weeks after launch will be critical to test how much appetite there is for crypto at the moment in these still relatively untapped pools of capital,\u201d Lawant emphasized. Relying on historical data, Lawant pointed out the stability of the ask side of BTC\u2019s order book, especially for prices situated above the $30,000 mark. This data allows for an approximation of how the inflow of capital might influence the price trajectory of BTC. Through various inflow scenarios squared against a spectrum of the depth of market scenarios, Lawant deduces that the market is possibly forecasting net inflows ranging between $500 million and $1.5 billion within the initial weeks post-launch. Drawing conclusions from his analysis, Lawant surmised: For BTC to establish a new range between the current level and more than $40k, the total net inflows would need to amount to $1.5 billion+. On the other hand, if total net inflows come in below $500 million, we could move back to the $30k level or even below. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $3 Million Is \u201cA 100X From Today\u201d, And You Are Still Early: Crypto Advocate However, it\u2019s paramount to note the inherent assumptions in Lawant’s analysis. He admits, \u201cOne is that the move from $28.5k to $34.0k was entirely attributed to the market anticipating price-insensitive net inflows from the ETF launch.\u201d This means, among other things, that the current price increase was triggered neither by the correlation with gold nor by the global crises or turmoil in the bond market. Lawant also highlighted the potential variability in BTC price movement across the order book. Nonetheless, given the stature of issuers like BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, and Ark Invest in the SEC queue, the current favorable macroeconomic climate for alternative monetary assets, and prospective improved liquidity conditions, Lawant remains bullish about the potential BTC price rally following the ETF debut. He concluded with, \u201cceteris paribus I\u2019m still excited about how the BTC price could react to the ETF launch.\u201d At press time, BTC traded at $34,542. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":558409,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,679,7720,1119,1144,2029,7523,3799,84647],"class_list":["post-558404","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-blackrock","tag-btc","tag-btcusd","tag-fidelity","tag-grayscale","tag-sec","tag-spot-bitcoin-etf"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSpot Bitcoin ETF: The Magic Number To Push BTC Past $40,000<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"David Lawant, head of research for FalconX, provided a Bitcoin price prediction in light of the anticipated launch of a US spot Bitcoin ETF.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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Through his extensive work with wncen.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/realJakeSimmons"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/marcusmisiak\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Spot Bitcoin ETF: Here’s The Magic Number To Push BTC Past $40,000","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/spot-bitcoin-etf-magic-number-push-btc-40000\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/spot-bitcoin-etf-magic-number-push-btc-40000\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/shutterstock_1996092116.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/shutterstock_1996092116.jpg?fit=4370%2C2480"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Jake Simmons"}],"creator":["Jake Simmons"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin price","blackrock","btc","btcusd","fidelity","grayscale","sec","spot bitcoin etf"],"dateCreated":"2023-10-31T16:00:44Z","datePublished":"2023-10-31T16:00:44Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T14:30:36Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Spot Bitcoin ETF: Here’s The Magic Number To Push BTC Past $40,000\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/spot-bitcoin-etf-magic-number-push-btc-40000\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/spot-bitcoin-etf-magic-number-push-btc-40000\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/10\\\/shutterstock_1996092116.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/10\\\/shutterstock_1996092116.jpg?fit=4370%2C2480\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Jake Simmons\"}],\"creator\":[\"Jake Simmons\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin price\",\"blackrock\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\",\"fidelity\",\"grayscale\",\"sec\",\"spot bitcoin etf\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-10-31T16:00:44Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-10-31T16:00:44Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T14:30:36Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/shutterstock_1996092116.jpg?fit=4370%2C2480","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/558404"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/571"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=558404"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/558404\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/558409"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=558404"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=558404"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=558404"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}