{"id":559319,"date":"2023-11-06T17:00:58","date_gmt":"2023-11-06T17:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=559319"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:06:10","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:06:10","slug":"bitcoin-cleared-level-historically-lead-rallies-99","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-cleared-level-historically-lead-rallies-99\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Has Just Cleared A Level That Historically Lead To Rallies Of 99%+"},"content":{"rendered":"

On-chain data shows Bitcoin has recently made a break that led to rallies of at least 99% during the last three times it happened.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Has Now Crossed Above “Single Cycle HODLers” Cost Basis<\/h2>\n

In a new post<\/a> on X, analyst Ali has talked about a level that BTC has broken recently. The level in question is the cost basis of the single-cycle Bitcoin long-term holders. The terms may be unfamiliar, so here’s what they mean, one by one.<\/p>\n

First, the “long-term holders<\/a>” (LTHs) here refer to the investors who have been holding onto their coins since at least 155 days ago. The LTHs are made up of the resolute diamond hands or HODLers, who rarely sell even when volatility occurs in the market.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: XRP Enjoys 11% Rally As Sharks & Whales Hit 2023 High Holdings<\/a><\/div>\n

Next, the “single cycle HODLers” specifically refer to those LTHs who bought within the span of a single BTC cycle. Their range is typically taken to be 6 months to 3 years. This means that the oldest among these investors (with coins aged 3 years) would have gone through the entire chaos of the current cycle, from the highs of the 2021 bull to the lows of the 2022 bear.<\/p>\n

Lastly, “cost basis<\/a>” refers to the average buying price of a group of Bitcoin investors. If the spot price of the cryptocurrency is trading below this value, it means that the cohort in question is in a state of net loss. Similarly, the asset being above implies the dominance of profits.<\/p>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the cost basis of the single-cycle LTHs over the past few years:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Looks like the price of the asset has interacted with this level in recent days | Source: Glassnode on X<\/a><\/pre>\n
Currently, this metric has a value of $34,150, which means that Bitcoin has already surged above it with the latest rally. This means that the average single cycle HODLer who had been in losses since the first half of 2022 has now finally returned to profits.<\/p>\n
In the graph, Ali has also highlighted the trajectory that BTC followed during the last three times a break above this level took place. It would appear that each of the last two major bull rallies occurred after the breaks that took place in 2016 and 2020, respectively.<\/p>\n
From the point of this breach, the cryptocurrency enjoyed returns of 4,778% and 787% over the course of the respective rallies. The recovery rally that started in April 2019<\/a> also observed a break of this cost basis, following which BTC registered gains of 99%.<\/p>\n
If this pattern of the single cycle HODLer cost basis paving the way for a Bitcoin rally is anything to go by, then the asset could potentially see a surge now that it has once again broken above it.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Ethereum Yet To Shake Off 2022 Bear Hangover: Glassnode<\/a><\/div>\n
As Bitcoin’s current rally is most similar to the April 2019 recovery rally, it’s possible that, if a surge does take place, it would be more in line with this rally, rather than the full-blown bull runs.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin has gone silent recently as it has only registered gains of 2% in the past week, with the price now floating above $35,200.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
BTC has been stuck in consolidation recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
On-chain data shows Bitcoin has recently made a break that led to rallies of at least 99% during the last three times it happened. Bitcoin Has Now Crossed Above “Single Cycle HODLers” Cost Basis In a new post on X, analyst Ali has talked about a level that BTC has broken recently. The level in question is the cost basis of the single-cycle Bitcoin long-term holders. The terms may be unfamiliar, so here’s what they mean, one by one. First, the “long-term holders” (LTHs) here refer to the investors who have been holding onto their coins since at least 155 days ago. The LTHs are made up of the resolute diamond hands or HODLers, who rarely sell even when volatility occurs in the market. Related Reading: XRP Enjoys 11% Rally As Sharks & Whales Hit 2023 High Holdings Next, the “single cycle HODLers” specifically refer to those LTHs who bought within the span of a single BTC cycle. Their range is typically taken to be 6 months to 3 years. This means that the oldest among these investors (with coins aged 3 years) would have gone through the entire chaos of the current cycle, from the highs of the 2021 bull to the lows of the 2022 bear. Lastly, “cost basis” refers to the average buying price of a group of Bitcoin investors. If the spot price of the cryptocurrency is trading below this value, it means that the cohort in question is in a state of net loss. Similarly, the asset being above implies the dominance of profits. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the cost basis of the single-cycle LTHs over the past few years: Looks like the price of the asset has interacted with this level in recent days | Source: Glassnode on X Currently, this metric has a value of $34,150, which means that Bitcoin has already surged above it with the latest rally. This means that the average single cycle HODLer who had been in losses since the first half of 2022 has now finally returned to profits. In the graph, Ali has also highlighted the trajectory that BTC followed during the last three times a break above this level took place. It would appear that each of the last two major bull rallies occurred after the breaks that took place in 2016 and 2020, respectively. From the point of this breach, the cryptocurrency enjoyed returns of 4,778% and 787% over the course of the respective rallies. The recovery rally that started in April 2019 also observed a break of this cost basis, following which BTC registered gains of 99%. If this pattern of the single cycle HODLer cost basis paving the way for a Bitcoin rally is anything to go by, then the asset could potentially see a surge now that it has once again broken above it. Related Reading: Ethereum Yet To Shake Off 2022 Bear Hangover: Glassnode As Bitcoin’s current rally is most similar to the April 2019 recovery rally, it’s possible that, if a surge does take place, it would be more in line with this rally, rather than the full-blown bull runs. BTC Price Bitcoin has gone silent recently as it has only registered gains of 2% in the past week, with the price now floating above $35,200. BTC has been stuck in consolidation recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":559347,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,6481,89808,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-559319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-rally","tag-bitcoin-single-cycle-hodler-cost-basis","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Has Just Cleared A Level That Historically Lead To Rallies Of 99%+<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"On-chain data shows Bitcoin has recently made a break that lead to rallies of at least 99% during the last three times it happened.\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Bitcoin Has Just Cleared A Level That Historically Lead To Rallies Of 99%+","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-cleared-level-historically-lead-rallies-99\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-cleared-level-historically-lead-rallies-99\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/shutterstock_651598474.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/shutterstock_651598474.jpg?fit=6016%2C4016"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin rally","bitcoin single cycle hodler cost basis","btc","btcusd"],"dateCreated":"2023-11-06T17:00:58Z","datePublished":"2023-11-06T17:00:58Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T08:06:10Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Bitcoin Has Just Cleared A Level That Historically Lead To Rallies Of 99%+\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-cleared-level-historically-lead-rallies-99\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-cleared-level-historically-lead-rallies-99\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/11\\\/shutterstock_651598474.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/11\\\/shutterstock_651598474.jpg?fit=6016%2C4016\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin rally\",\"bitcoin single cycle hodler cost basis\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-11-06T17:00:58Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-11-06T17:00:58Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T08:06:10Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/shutterstock_651598474.jpg?fit=6016%2C4016","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/559319"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=559319"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/559319\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/559347"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=559319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=559319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=559319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}