{"id":562238,"date":"2023-11-24T08:15:17","date_gmt":"2023-11-24T08:15:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=562238"},"modified":"2024-06-11T07:52:01","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T07:52:01","slug":"grayscale-bitcoin-etf-2-7-billion-exodus-jpmorgan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/grayscale-bitcoin-etf-2-7-billion-exodus-jpmorgan\/","title":{"rendered":"Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF Conversion Could Lead To $2.7 Billion Exodus: JPMorgan"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a new analysis, JPMorgan has raised concerns about the potential outflow of funds following the possible conversion of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF. The banking giant estimates that the conversion could prompt investors to withdraw at least $2.7 billion.<\/p>\n

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, a pivotal force in the previous bull market, has seen its discount to Bitcoin’s current market price shrink from -46% at the beginning of the year to -9.77% by November 22, the lowest level since mid-August 2021.\u00a0Notably, this reduction in discount is important because it indicates that investors are expecting the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve Grayscale’s conversion to a spot Bitcoin ETF. However, JP Morgan has cautioned<\/a> that this conversion might lead to some instability in the market.<\/p>\n

$2.7 Billion Exodus Following Bitcoin ETF Approval?<\/h2>\n

JPMorgan analysts, including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, have scrutinized the inflows into GBTC since the beginning of 2023, revealing a calculated strategy by traders to exploit the discount for profit upon ETF conversion. The bank’s methodology considered the cumulative signed dollar volume, accounting for both the volume of shares traded and the direction of the price movement.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Trader: Bitcoin Will Inevitably Breeze Past $70,000\u2014Here\u2019s Why<\/a><\/div>\n

The analysts posit that this influx, primarily driven by speculation over GBTC’s conversion to an ETF, will likely reverse as investors seek to capitalize on the arbitrage opportunity presented by the narrowing of the discount to net asset value. The minimum anticipated outflow, upon conversion to an ETF, stands at $2.7 billion.<\/p>\n

However, this could escalate if GBTC’s current fee structure, standing at 200 basis points, isn’t significantly reduced post-conversion. The competitive landscape, as suggested by the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF’s 80 basis points fee, necessitates such a reduction for GBTC to maintain its market dominance.<\/p>\n

The impact on the market could be profound. A full withdrawal of the $2.7 billion could exert substantial downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. However, JPMorgan analysts believe that much of this capital will likely be reallocated to other Bitcoin-related instruments, mitigating any drastic market disturbance.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Grayscale Files Updated Spot ETF As Bitcoin Barrels Past $37,000<\/a><\/div>\n

They predict a reconfiguration of assets, shifting from $23 billion in GBTC and $5 billion in other funds to $20 billion in the trust and $8 billion in other vehicles. Nonetheless, they caution that a portion of the funds may exit the Bitcoin space entirely, which would pose a risk of a downturn in Bitcoin prices.<\/p>\n

Remarkably, JP Morgan analysts led by Panigirtzoglou have predicted in early September that the SEC will be forced to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs after losing the case against Grayscale. Moreover, JP Morgan\u2019s forecast hinges on the assumption that the approval of a batch<\/a> of ETFs will ignite more intense competition among Bitcoin investment products, likely resulting in a fee structure more aligned with those of Gold ETFs, typically around 50 basis points.<\/p>\n

As the market awaits the SEC’s decision, the primary concern remains: Whether the anticipated GBTC outflows will find a new home within the Bitcoin space or if they will signify a broader withdrawal from BTC investments.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $37,560.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC price continues its uptrend, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image from Veri-Media, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a new analysis, JPMorgan has raised concerns about the potential outflow of funds following the possible conversion of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF. The banking giant estimates that the conversion could prompt investors to withdraw at least $2.7 billion. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, a pivotal force in the previous bull market, has seen its discount to Bitcoin’s current market price shrink from -46% at the beginning of the year to -9.77% by November 22, the lowest level since mid-August 2021.\u00a0Notably, this reduction in discount is important because it indicates that investors are expecting the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve Grayscale’s conversion to a spot Bitcoin ETF. However, JP Morgan has cautioned that this conversion might lead to some instability in the market. $2.7 Billion Exodus Following Bitcoin ETF Approval? JPMorgan analysts, including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, have scrutinized the inflows into GBTC since the beginning of 2023, revealing a calculated strategy by traders to exploit the discount for profit upon ETF conversion. The bank’s methodology considered the cumulative signed dollar volume, accounting for both the volume of shares traded and the direction of the price movement. Related Reading: Trader: Bitcoin Will Inevitably Breeze Past $70,000\u2014Here\u2019s Why The analysts posit that this influx, primarily driven by speculation over GBTC’s conversion to an ETF, will likely reverse as investors seek to capitalize on the arbitrage opportunity presented by the narrowing of the discount to net asset value. The minimum anticipated outflow, upon conversion to an ETF, stands at $2.7 billion. However, this could escalate if GBTC’s current fee structure, standing at 200 basis points, isn’t significantly reduced post-conversion. The competitive landscape, as suggested by the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF’s 80 basis points fee, necessitates such a reduction for GBTC to maintain its market dominance. The impact on the market could be profound. A full withdrawal of the $2.7 billion could exert substantial downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. However, JPMorgan analysts believe that much of this capital will likely be reallocated to other Bitcoin-related instruments, mitigating any drastic market disturbance. Related Reading: Grayscale Files Updated Spot ETF As Bitcoin Barrels Past $37,000 They predict a reconfiguration of assets, shifting from $23 billion in GBTC and $5 billion in other funds to $20 billion in the trust and $8 billion in other vehicles. Nonetheless, they caution that a portion of the funds may exit the Bitcoin space entirely, which would pose a risk of a downturn in Bitcoin prices. Remarkably, JP Morgan analysts led by Panigirtzoglou have predicted in early September that the SEC will be forced to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs after losing the case against Grayscale. Moreover, JP Morgan\u2019s forecast hinges on the assumption that the approval of a batch of ETFs will ignite more intense competition among Bitcoin investment products, likely resulting in a fee structure more aligned with those of Gold ETFs, typically around 50 basis points. As the market awaits the SEC’s decision, the primary concern remains: Whether the anticipated GBTC outflows will find a new home within the Bitcoin space or if they will signify a broader withdrawal from BTC investments. At press time, BTC traded at $37,560. Featured image from Veri-Media, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":562239,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,532,679,1119,7558,7523,61774,2627],"class_list":["post-562238","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-etf","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-gbtc","tag-grayscale","tag-grayscale-bitcoin-trust","tag-jp-morgan"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGrayscale's Bitcoin ETF Shift May Cause $2.7B Outflow: JPMorgan<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"JPMorgan has raised concerns about the potential outflow of funds following the conversion of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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Through his extensive work with wncen.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. 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