{"id":569139,"date":"2024-01-12T01:00:01","date_gmt":"2024-01-12T01:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=569139"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:01:03","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:01:03","slug":"bitcoin-top-glassnodes-price-multiplier-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-top-glassnodes-price-multiplier-model\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Bitcoin Near Top Yet? What Glassnode’s Price Multiplier Model Says"},"content":{"rendered":"

Glassnode’s model for tracking the “price multiplier” effect for Bitcoin could provide some hints about whether the asset is near the top or not so far.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Is Observing A Multiplier Effect Of 4-5x Right Now<\/h2>\n

In a new post<\/a> on X, the lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, Checkmate, has discussed the “price multiplier” effect of Bitcoin. This effect refers to the fact that the capital that flows into the cryptocurrency is not always (in fact, most of the time) the same as the change reflected in the market cap.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Sell The News: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Participate In $2 Billion Selloff<\/a><\/div>\n

To track the exact ratio between the two, Glassnode has defined the “Realized Capital to Valuation Change Ratio.” This indicator measures how much capital flows into the “Realized Cap<\/a>” for every unit change in the market cap.<\/p>\n

The Realized Cap refers to a capitalization model for Bitcoin that assumes that the real value of each coin in circulation is not the current spot price but the price at the time it was last transferred on the blockchain.<\/p>\n

This last transfer could be considered the previous moment the coin changed hands, so the Realized Cap adds up the cost basis or acquisition value of all coins in circulation. Put another way, the Realized Cap is a model that measures the total amount of capital the investors have used to buy Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the BTC Realized Capital to Valuation Change Ratio over the past several years:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

The data for the 90-day change in the metric | Source: @_Checkmatey_ on X<\/a><\/pre>\n
The above graph shows that the Bitcoin Realized Capital to Valuation Change Ratio (90-day) has recently been below the 4-year median of 0.25. As Checkmate notes, this model suggests the current multiplier effect of BTC is around 4 to 5 times.<\/p>\n
This means that for every $0.20 to $0.25 going into the realized cap, the market cap is moving by $1. From the chart, it’s apparent that the multiplier has generally<\/a> shot up during bull markets.<\/p>\n
“Bull market tops often correspond with $0.80 to over $1.0 in capital inflows needed to achieve a $1 change in the market cap (unsustainable < 1x Multipler),” explains the Glassnode lead.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, bear markets<\/a> “often see heightened volatility with $0.2 in capital flows having a $1.0 impact on MCap (5x Multipler),” according to the analyst.<\/p>\n
Suppose this historical pattern is anything to go by. In that case, the current Bitcoin multiplier is still at relatively low values, which would imply the cryptocurrency still has a lot of room to go before a potential top is encountered.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: PEPE Breaks Out Of Descending Channel: Analyst Puts These Targets<\/a><\/div>\n
Another curious pattern in the ratio is also visible in the same chart. It appears that the 4-year median has been going down as the years have passed. This would mean that BTC’s market cap has, on average, been becoming easier to shift with time.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
In the past day, the Bitcoin spot ETFs were finally cleared by the US SEC, and it would appear that the market has reacted by buying this news, as the price has now breached the $48,000 level.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
Looks like the price of the coin has shot up over the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Dmytro Demidko on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Glassnode’s model for tracking the “price multiplier” effect for Bitcoin could provide some hints about whether the asset is near the top or not so far. Bitcoin Is Observing A Multiplier Effect Of 4-5x Right Now In a new post on X, the lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, Checkmate, has discussed the “price multiplier” effect of Bitcoin. This effect refers to the fact that the capital that flows into the cryptocurrency is not always (in fact, most of the time) the same as the change reflected in the market cap. Related Reading: Sell The News: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Participate In $2 Billion Selloff To track the exact ratio between the two, Glassnode has defined the “Realized Capital to Valuation Change Ratio.” This indicator measures how much capital flows into the “Realized Cap” for every unit change in the market cap. The Realized Cap refers to a capitalization model for Bitcoin that assumes that the real value of each coin in circulation is not the current spot price but the price at the time it was last transferred on the blockchain. This last transfer could be considered the previous moment the coin changed hands, so the Realized Cap adds up the cost basis or acquisition value of all coins in circulation. Put another way, the Realized Cap is a model that measures the total amount of capital the investors have used to buy Bitcoin. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the BTC Realized Capital to Valuation Change Ratio over the past several years: The data for the 90-day change in the metric | Source: @_Checkmatey_ on X The above graph shows that the Bitcoin Realized Capital to Valuation Change Ratio (90-day) has recently been below the 4-year median of 0.25. As Checkmate notes, this model suggests the current multiplier effect of BTC is around 4 to 5 times. This means that for every $0.20 to $0.25 going into the realized cap, the market cap is moving by $1. From the chart, it’s apparent that the multiplier has generally shot up during bull markets. “Bull market tops often correspond with $0.80 to over $1.0 in capital inflows needed to achieve a $1 change in the market cap (unsustainable < 1x Multipler),” explains the Glassnode lead. On the other hand, bear markets “often see heightened volatility with $0.2 in capital flows having a $1.0 impact on MCap (5x Multipler),” according to the analyst. Suppose this historical pattern is anything to go by. In that case, the current Bitcoin multiplier is still at relatively low values, which would imply the cryptocurrency still has a lot of room to go before a potential top is encountered. Related Reading: PEPE Breaks Out Of Descending Channel: Analyst Puts These Targets Another curious pattern in the ratio is also visible in the same chart. It appears that the 4-year median has been going down as the years have passed. This would mean that BTC’s market cap has, on average, been becoming easier to shift with time. BTC Price In the past day, the Bitcoin spot ETFs were finally cleared by the US SEC, and it would appear that the market has reacted by buying this news, as the price has now breached the $48,000 level. Looks like the price of the coin has shot up over the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Dmytro Demidko on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":569144,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,91159,631,86192,84738,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-569139","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-capital-flows","tag-bitcoin-market-cap","tag-bitcoin-realized-cap","tag-bitcoin-top","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs Bitcoin Near Top Yet? 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Is Bitcoin Near Top Yet? 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