{"id":603431,"date":"2024-04-16T06:20:19","date_gmt":"2024-04-16T06:20:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=603431"},"modified":"2024-06-11T06:59:21","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T06:59:21","slug":"why-bitcoin-halving-matters-not-the-way-you-think","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/why-bitcoin-halving-matters-not-the-way-you-think\/","title":{"rendered":"Why The Bitcoin Halving Matters, But Not The Way You Think: Expert"},"content":{"rendered":"

David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX, a digital assets prime brokerage with trading, financing, and custody for leading financial institutions,\u00a0recently offered an analysis<\/a> on X (formerly Twitter) regarding the evolving role of Bitcoin halvings in market dynamics. This analysis challenges the traditional view that halvings directly and significantly affect Bitcoin’s price, instead highlighting a broader economic and strategic context that might be influencing investor perceptions and market behavior more profoundly.<\/p>\n

The Miner’s Diminishing Impact On Bitcoin Price<\/h2>\n

Lawant begins by addressing the changing impact of Bitcoin miners on market prices. He presents a detailed chart comparing the total mining revenue to the Bitcoin spot traded volume from 2012 onwards, clearly marking the dates of the three previous halvings<\/a>. This data reveals a significant shift: “The most crucial chart for comprehending halving dynamics is the one below, not the price chart. It illustrates the proportion of total mining revenue compared to BTC spot traded volume since 2012, with the three halving dates marked.”<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin Halving effects over time | Source: X @dlawant<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In 2012, total mining revenue was multiples of the daily traded volume, highlighting a time when miners’ decisions to sell could have significant impacts on the market. By 2016, this figure was still a notable double-digit percentage of daily volume but has since declined. Lawant emphasizes, “While miners remain integral to the Bitcoin ecosystem, their influence on price formation has notably waned.”<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Readying For A 12-Year Bull Run To $650,000 If Bulls Take Charge: Analyst<\/a><\/div>\n

He elaborates that this reduction is partly due to the increasing diversification of Bitcoin holders and the growing sophistication of financial instruments within the cryptocurrency market. Furthermore, not all mining revenue is immediately impacted by halving events\u2014miners may choose to hold onto their rewards rather than sell, affecting the direct impact of reduced block rewards<\/a> on supply.<\/p>\n

Lawant connects the timing of halvings to broader economic cycles, proposing that halvings do not occur in isolation but alongside significant monetary policy shifts. This juxtaposition increases the narrative impact of halvings, as they underscore Bitcoin’s attributes of scarcity and decentralization during periods when traditional monetary systems are under stress.<\/p>\n

“Bitcoin halving events tend to occur during critical monetary policy<\/a> turning points, so the narrative fit is just too perfect to assume they cannot influence prices,” Lawant observes. This statement suggests a psychological and strategic dimension where the perceived value of Bitcoin’s scarcity becomes more pronounced.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Showing Different Behavior From Past Cycles, But Why?<\/a><\/div>\n

The analysis then shifts towards the macroeconomic environment influencing Bitcoin’s appeal. Lawant references the 2020 discussion by investor Paul Tudor Jones who labeled<\/a> the economic climate as “The Great Monetary Inflation,” a period marked by aggressive monetary expansion by central banks. Lawant argues, “I\u2019d argue that this was a more important factor in the 2020-2021 bull run than the direct flow impact from the halving,” pointing out that macroeconomic factors may have had a more substantial influence on Bitcoin’s price than the halving itself.<\/p>\n

Future Prospects: Macroeconomics Over Mechanics<\/h3>\n

Looking towards the future, Lawant speculates that as the world enters a new phase of economic uncertainty and potential monetary reform, macroeconomic factors will increasingly dictate Bitcoin’s price movements rather than the mechanical aspects of halvings.<\/p>\n

“Now in 2024, the concerns center around the aftermath of the fiscal\/monetary policies that have been in place for decades but are getting turbocharged in a world that is very different from four years ago. […]\u00a0 We are potentially entering a new leg of this macroeconomic cycle, and macro is becoming a more critical factor in BTC price action,” he concludes.<\/p>\n

This perspective suggests that while the direct price impact of Bitcoin halvings may diminish, the broader economic context will likely highlight Bitcoin\u2019s fundamental properties\u2014immutability and a fixed supply cap\u2014as crucial anchors for its value proposition in a rapidly evolving economic landscape.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $62,873.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC price, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image created with DALL\u00b7E, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX, a digital assets prime brokerage with trading, financing, and custody for leading financial institutions,\u00a0recently offered an analysis on X (formerly Twitter) regarding the evolving role of Bitcoin halvings in market dynamics. This analysis challenges the traditional view that halvings directly and significantly affect Bitcoin’s price, instead highlighting a broader economic and strategic context that might be influencing investor perceptions and market behavior more profoundly. The Miner’s Diminishing Impact On Bitcoin Price Lawant begins by addressing the changing impact of Bitcoin miners on market prices. He presents a detailed chart comparing the total mining revenue to the Bitcoin spot traded volume from 2012 onwards, clearly marking the dates of the three previous halvings. This data reveals a significant shift: “The most crucial chart for comprehending halving dynamics is the one below, not the price chart. It illustrates the proportion of total mining revenue compared to BTC spot traded volume since 2012, with the three halving dates marked.” In 2012, total mining revenue was multiples of the daily traded volume, highlighting a time when miners’ decisions to sell could have significant impacts on the market. By 2016, this figure was still a notable double-digit percentage of daily volume but has since declined. Lawant emphasizes, “While miners remain integral to the Bitcoin ecosystem, their influence on price formation has notably waned.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Readying For A 12-Year Bull Run To $650,000 If Bulls Take Charge: Analyst He elaborates that this reduction is partly due to the increasing diversification of Bitcoin holders and the growing sophistication of financial instruments within the cryptocurrency market. Furthermore, not all mining revenue is immediately impacted by halving events\u2014miners may choose to hold onto their rewards rather than sell, affecting the direct impact of reduced block rewards on supply. Lawant connects the timing of halvings to broader economic cycles, proposing that halvings do not occur in isolation but alongside significant monetary policy shifts. This juxtaposition increases the narrative impact of halvings, as they underscore Bitcoin’s attributes of scarcity and decentralization during periods when traditional monetary systems are under stress. “Bitcoin halving events tend to occur during critical monetary policy turning points, so the narrative fit is just too perfect to assume they cannot influence prices,” Lawant observes. This statement suggests a psychological and strategic dimension where the perceived value of Bitcoin’s scarcity becomes more pronounced. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Showing Different Behavior From Past Cycles, But Why? The analysis then shifts towards the macroeconomic environment influencing Bitcoin’s appeal. Lawant references the 2020 discussion by investor Paul Tudor Jones who labeled the economic climate as “The Great Monetary Inflation,” a period marked by aggressive monetary expansion by central banks. Lawant argues, “I\u2019d argue that this was a more important factor in the 2020-2021 bull run than the direct flow impact from the halving,” pointing out that macroeconomic factors may have had a more substantial influence on Bitcoin’s price than the halving itself. Future Prospects: Macroeconomics Over Mechanics Looking towards the future, Lawant speculates that as the world enters a new phase of economic uncertainty and potential monetary reform, macroeconomic factors will increasingly dictate Bitcoin’s price movements rather than the mechanical aspects of halvings. “Now in 2024, the concerns center around the aftermath of the fiscal\/monetary policies that have been in place for decades but are getting turbocharged in a world that is very different from four years ago. […]\u00a0 We are potentially entering a new leg of this macroeconomic cycle, and macro is becoming a more critical factor in BTC price action,” he concludes. This perspective suggests that while the direct price impact of Bitcoin halvings may diminish, the broader economic context will likely highlight Bitcoin\u2019s fundamental properties\u2014immutability and a fixed supply cap\u2014as crucial anchors for its value proposition in a rapidly evolving economic landscape. At press time, BTC traded at $62,873. Featured image created with DALL\u00b7E, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":603432,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,8856,656,679,1119,89642,1122,1144,89810],"class_list":["post-603431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-halving","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-halving","tag-btc-price","tag-btcusd","tag-next-btc-halving"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy The Bitcoin Halving Matters, But Not The Way You Think<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX, offers an analysis regarding the evolving role of Bitcoin halvings in market dynamics.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. 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Through his extensive work with wncen.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. 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