{"id":608315,"date":"2024-05-16T07:40:06","date_gmt":"2024-05-16T07:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=608315"},"modified":"2024-06-11T06:58:06","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T06:58:06","slug":"most-important-bitcoin-indicator-nears-bullish-flip","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/most-important-bitcoin-indicator-nears-bullish-flip\/","title":{"rendered":"Most Important Bitcoin Indicator Nears Bullish Flip: $150,000 Soon?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a recent analysis<\/a>, James Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Realvision, signaled a potential bullish turn in Bitcoin\u2019s near future, attributing the forecasted change to shifts in global liquidity measures, specifically the Global Money Supply (M2) index which is widely seen as most important price catalyst. Coutts detailed this anticipation in a thread on X, where he examined the relationship between major economic indicators and Bitcoin’s price cycles.<\/p>\n

Global Money Supply And Its Correlation With Bitcoin<\/h2>\n

Coutts\u2019 analysis begins with the M2 money aggregates, which consist of cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. He tracks these aggregates across the 12 largest economies, all adjusted to USD. This measure, he suggests, is central to understanding liquidity flows within the global fiat, credit-based financial system. According to Coutts, “The money stock often moves in one direction, with significant drops like those seen in 2022 being rare and typically brief.”<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Soaring Toward $84,000: Insights From Glassnode Co-Founders<\/a><\/div>\n

Currently, the Global M2<\/a> is neutral, but Coutts predicts imminent changes: “There is a sea of red across my macro & liquidity dashboard, but signs are emerging that this is about to change. Global M2 holds the key for the next leg of the cycle due to its high correlation with $BTC bull cycles.”<\/p>\n

The rate of change in M2 money supply is more critical than its nominal value. Coutts noted, “The chart confirms what our MSI performance table suggests: Bitcoin usually moves with shifts in M2 momentum.” He explained that despite the global money supply MSI indicator being in an uptrend, the momentum remains sluggish, maintaining a Neutral MSI. For a shift to a bullish MSI signal, an increase in momentum is necessary, requiring a combination of dollar depreciation, credit expansion, and increased government debt issuance.<\/p>\n

Coutts pointed out the crucial role of credit conditions, as evidenced by corporate bond spreads (BBB\/Baa) compared to the US 10-year Treasury yield<\/a>, which have historically aligned with significant inflections in Bitcoin\u2019s cycle. “These spreads are currently narrowing, indicating that corporations are managing to issue and roll over debt despite the high interest rates resulting from the record hikes in 2022 and 2023,” he observed.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: $291 Billion Asset Manager Founder Predicts Bitcoin Will Hit $420,000<\/a><\/div>\n

Using the chameleon trend indicator on the corporate spread index, Coutts suggests a strategy: “Long Bitcoin when the index shows a bearish trend (red) and stay alert for potential trend reversals (turning green).”<\/p>\n

The Role Of the Dollar And Future Outlook<\/h2>\n

A key to this cycle, according to Coutts, is the behavior of the DXY<\/a> (Dollar Index), which measures the US dollar against a basket of foreign currencies. “The Dollar is range-bound. A break below 101 would be rocket fuel for Bitcoin,” he asserted, emphasizing that market sentiment on liquidity is often reflected in real-time by DXY movements.<\/p>\n

Coutts also touched upon the US debt situation, suggesting that without a conservative shift in Congress advocating for fiscal responsibility, more deficit spending is likely on the horizon, which could further influence liquidity conditions favorable to Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

Coutts concluded with a note of caution mixed with optimism: “While my framework needs 2\/3 MSI indicators to turn Bullish for macro headwinds to turn into tailwinds, Bitcoin price action will probably sniff out this inflection in the macro before most indicators react.”<\/p>\n

His analysis suggests that if Bitcoin breaks above its all-time highs, it would be unwise to bet against it, anticipating potential climbs towards $150,000 in this cycle. “The DXY holds the key to the Bitcoin cycle as it prices in mkt expectations on liquidity in real time. And liquidity is coming. Watch the 101\/102 level on DXY If that breaks, then we should see ~$150k btc this cycle,” he remarked<\/a>.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $66,090.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC price surpasses $66,000 again, 1-day hart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image created with DALL\u00b7E, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a recent analysis, James Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Realvision, signaled a potential bullish turn in Bitcoin\u2019s near future, attributing the forecasted change to shifts in global liquidity measures, specifically the Global Money Supply (M2) index which is widely seen as most important price catalyst. Coutts detailed this anticipation in a thread on X, where he examined the relationship between major economic indicators and Bitcoin’s price cycles. Global Money Supply And Its Correlation With Bitcoin Coutts\u2019 analysis begins with the M2 money aggregates, which consist of cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. He tracks these aggregates across the 12 largest economies, all adjusted to USD. This measure, he suggests, is central to understanding liquidity flows within the global fiat, credit-based financial system. According to Coutts, “The money stock often moves in one direction, with significant drops like those seen in 2022 being rare and typically brief.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Soaring Toward $84,000: Insights From Glassnode Co-Founders Currently, the Global M2 is neutral, but Coutts predicts imminent changes: “There is a sea of red across my macro & liquidity dashboard, but signs are emerging that this is about to change. Global M2 holds the key for the next leg of the cycle due to its high correlation with $BTC bull cycles.” The rate of change in M2 money supply is more critical than its nominal value. Coutts noted, “The chart confirms what our MSI performance table suggests: Bitcoin usually moves with shifts in M2 momentum.” He explained that despite the global money supply MSI indicator being in an uptrend, the momentum remains sluggish, maintaining a Neutral MSI. For a shift to a bullish MSI signal, an increase in momentum is necessary, requiring a combination of dollar depreciation, credit expansion, and increased government debt issuance. Coutts pointed out the crucial role of credit conditions, as evidenced by corporate bond spreads (BBB\/Baa) compared to the US 10-year Treasury yield, which have historically aligned with significant inflections in Bitcoin\u2019s cycle. “These spreads are currently narrowing, indicating that corporations are managing to issue and roll over debt despite the high interest rates resulting from the record hikes in 2022 and 2023,” he observed. Related Reading: $291 Billion Asset Manager Founder Predicts Bitcoin Will Hit $420,000 Using the chameleon trend indicator on the corporate spread index, Coutts suggests a strategy: “Long Bitcoin when the index shows a bearish trend (red) and stay alert for potential trend reversals (turning green).” The Role Of the Dollar And Future Outlook A key to this cycle, according to Coutts, is the behavior of the DXY (Dollar Index), which measures the US dollar against a basket of foreign currencies. “The Dollar is range-bound. A break below 101 would be rocket fuel for Bitcoin,” he asserted, emphasizing that market sentiment on liquidity is often reflected in real-time by DXY movements. Coutts also touched upon the US debt situation, suggesting that without a conservative shift in Congress advocating for fiscal responsibility, more deficit spending is likely on the horizon, which could further influence liquidity conditions favorable to Bitcoin. Coutts concluded with a note of caution mixed with optimism: “While my framework needs 2\/3 MSI indicators to turn Bullish for macro headwinds to turn into tailwinds, Bitcoin price action will probably sniff out this inflection in the macro before most indicators react.” His analysis suggests that if Bitcoin breaks above its all-time highs, it would be unwise to bet against it, anticipating potential climbs towards $150,000 in this cycle. “The DXY holds the key to the Bitcoin cycle as it prices in mkt expectations on liquidity in real time. And liquidity is coming. Watch the 101\/102 level on DXY If that breaks, then we should see ~$150k btc this cycle,” he remarked. At press time, BTC traded at $66,090. Featured image created with DALL\u00b7E, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":608317,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,656,679,680,1119,1122,1144],"class_list":["post-608315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitcoin-price-analysis","tag-btc","tag-btc-price","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMost Important Bitcoin Indicator Nears Bullish Flip: $150,000 Soon?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"James Coutts predicts a potential bullish turn for Bitcoin price in the near future, attributing it to the Global Money Supply.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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Through his extensive work with wncen.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. 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His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. 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Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. 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Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. 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