{"id":663457,"date":"2024-12-17T13:30:38","date_gmt":"2024-12-17T13:30:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=663457"},"modified":"2024-12-17T09:28:37","modified_gmt":"2024-12-17T09:28:37","slug":"bitcoin-180000-if-these-cycle-top-indicators-are-absent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-180000-if-these-cycle-top-indicators-are-absent\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin To Hit $180,000 If These Cycle Top Indicators Are Absent, Says VanEck’s Sigel"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin could soar to $180,000 in 2025 if key cycle top indicators remain muted, according to Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck. Speaking with podcast<\/a> host Natalie Brunell, Sigel outlined a clear four-year pattern in Bitcoin\u2019s price action that he believes has persisted through multiple market cycles.<\/p>\n

Why $180,000 Per Bitcoin Seems Plausible<\/h2>\n

Sigel explained that Bitcoin tends to outperform nearly every other asset class for three years out of each four-year halving cycle, followed by a deep correction in the fourth year. Referencing a drawdown typically ranging from 60% to 80%, Sigel said this decline often arrives roughly two years after the BTC halving event<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Since Bitcoin\u2019s most recent halving took place in April 2024, Sigel sees 2024 and 2025 as potentially strong years. \u201cThat down year typically is the second year after the halving,\u201d Sigel explained. \u201cThe Bitcoin halving occurred in April of this year. So 2024 [will be a] strong year, 2025 should be a strong year. I think 2026, unless something changes, would be a down year.\u201d<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Can Bitcoin Hit $160,000 In 2025? Matrixport Thinks So<\/a><\/div>\n

Drawing on historical data, he recalled the smallest trough-to-peak appreciation in Bitcoin\u2019s previous cycles, which was approximately 2,000%. Even if that figure halves to 1,000%, Sigel pointed out that Bitcoin could rise from a trough of around $18,000 to as high as $180,000 in the current cycle. \u201cSo I see an upside to $180,000 this cycle, and I think that\u2019s likely to happen next year,\u201d Sigel added.<\/p>\n

He also emphasized that Bitcoin\u2019s volatility means the price could overshoot or undershoot that number, but that $180,000 represents a plausible target for 2024 if the pattern holds and no major \u201cred light\u201d indicators appear.<\/p>\n

Sigel broke down what he sees as the most important topping signals for traders to watch. The first involves derivatives funding rates: if the annualized cost to hold bullish Bitcoin positions on leveraged markets pushes above 10% for longer than a couple of months, Sigel considers that a red flag.<\/p>\n

\u201cSome of those indicators include the funding rates. When the funding rate for Bitcoin exceeds 10% for more than a couple months, that tends to be a red light,\u201d Sigel warned and explained that recent market activity reset elevated funding rates: \u201c[Last week\u2019s] washout eliminated that as well. So funding rates [are] not really flashing red.\u201d<\/p>\n

The second is the level of unrealized profits on the blockchain, where on-chain analysis can reveal whether market participants\u2019 cost basis is so low that significant profit-taking might soon create selling pressure. \u201cWe\u2019re not seeing scary amounts of unrealized profits [yet],\u201d Sigel noted.<\/p>\n

Finally, he said anecdotal evidence of widespread retail leverage or speculation could also flash warning lights. He explained that if all these risk indicators were to align at a certain price point\u2014for example, if Bitcoin hit $150,000 and these metrics pointed to a market top\u2014he would be cautious. However, he said that if the price reached around $180,000 without those signals appearing, there might still be room for further appreciation.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: National Bitcoin Reserve Initiative: MP Satoshi Hamada Urges Japan To Take Action<\/a><\/div>\n

\u201cIf we reach $180K and none of those lights are flashing, maybe we let it run. If all those lights are flashing and the price is $150K, I\u2019m not gonna wait,\u201d Sigel added.<\/p>\n

Next BTC Cycle Predictions<\/h2>\n

He also explored the longer-term growth potential for Bitcoin by comparing it to gold\u2019s market capitalization<\/a>. Because about half of gold\u2019s supply is used for industrial and jewelry purposes, he reasoned that the other half can be compared more directly to Bitcoin\u2019s function as an investment and store of value.<\/p>\n

If Bitcoin were to reach a valuation comparable to that half portion of gold\u2019s market cap, Sigel believes the price could trend toward roughly $450,000 per coin over the course of the next cycle.<\/p>\n

Taking an even more forward-looking perspective, he described VanEck’s long-term model<\/a> in which global central banks might eventually hold Bitcoin as part of their reserves, even if just at a 2% weighting. Since gold constitutes about 18% of central bank reserves worldwide, Sigel\u2019s assumption is that Bitcoin\u2019s share would be far smaller by comparison.<\/p>\n

He also factored in the prospect that Bitcoin might one day serve as a settlement currency for global trade, potentially among emerging economic alliances such as the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), which could push its valuation significantly higher. In VanEck\u2019s calculations, this scenario might place Bitcoin at $3 million per coin by 2050:<\/p>\n

\u201cWe also assume that Bitcoin is used as a settlement currency for global trade, most likely among BRICS countries. We get to three million dollars a coin by 2050, which would be about a 16% compound annual growth rate.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $107,219.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin price, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image from YouTube \/ Natalie Brunell, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin could soar to $180,000 in 2025 if key cycle top indicators remain muted, according to Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck. Speaking with podcast host Natalie Brunell, Sigel outlined a clear four-year pattern in Bitcoin\u2019s price action that he believes has persisted through multiple market cycles. Why $180,000 Per Bitcoin Seems Plausible Sigel explained that Bitcoin tends to outperform nearly every other asset class for three years out of each four-year halving cycle, followed by a deep correction in the fourth year. Referencing a drawdown typically ranging from 60% to 80%, Sigel said this decline often arrives roughly two years after the BTC halving event. Since Bitcoin\u2019s most recent halving took place in April 2024, Sigel sees 2024 and 2025 as potentially strong years. \u201cThat down year typically is the second year after the halving,\u201d Sigel explained. \u201cThe Bitcoin halving occurred in April of this year. So 2024 [will be a] strong year, 2025 should be a strong year. I think 2026, unless something changes, would be a down year.\u201d Related Reading: Can Bitcoin Hit $160,000 In 2025? Matrixport Thinks So Drawing on historical data, he recalled the smallest trough-to-peak appreciation in Bitcoin\u2019s previous cycles, which was approximately 2,000%. Even if that figure halves to 1,000%, Sigel pointed out that Bitcoin could rise from a trough of around $18,000 to as high as $180,000 in the current cycle. \u201cSo I see an upside to $180,000 this cycle, and I think that\u2019s likely to happen next year,\u201d Sigel added. He also emphasized that Bitcoin\u2019s volatility means the price could overshoot or undershoot that number, but that $180,000 represents a plausible target for 2024 if the pattern holds and no major \u201cred light\u201d indicators appear. Sigel broke down what he sees as the most important topping signals for traders to watch. The first involves derivatives funding rates: if the annualized cost to hold bullish Bitcoin positions on leveraged markets pushes above 10% for longer than a couple of months, Sigel considers that a red flag. \u201cSome of those indicators include the funding rates. When the funding rate for Bitcoin exceeds 10% for more than a couple months, that tends to be a red light,\u201d Sigel warned and explained that recent market activity reset elevated funding rates: \u201c[Last week\u2019s] washout eliminated that as well. So funding rates [are] not really flashing red.\u201d The second is the level of unrealized profits on the blockchain, where on-chain analysis can reveal whether market participants\u2019 cost basis is so low that significant profit-taking might soon create selling pressure. \u201cWe\u2019re not seeing scary amounts of unrealized profits [yet],\u201d Sigel noted. Finally, he said anecdotal evidence of widespread retail leverage or speculation could also flash warning lights. He explained that if all these risk indicators were to align at a certain price point\u2014for example, if Bitcoin hit $150,000 and these metrics pointed to a market top\u2014he would be cautious. However, he said that if the price reached around $180,000 without those signals appearing, there might still be room for further appreciation. Related Reading: National Bitcoin Reserve Initiative: MP Satoshi Hamada Urges Japan To Take Action \u201cIf we reach $180K and none of those lights are flashing, maybe we let it run. If all those lights are flashing and the price is $150K, I\u2019m not gonna wait,\u201d Sigel added. Next BTC Cycle Predictions He also explored the longer-term growth potential for Bitcoin by comparing it to gold\u2019s market capitalization. Because about half of gold\u2019s supply is used for industrial and jewelry purposes, he reasoned that the other half can be compared more directly to Bitcoin\u2019s function as an investment and store of value. If Bitcoin were to reach a valuation comparable to that half portion of gold\u2019s market cap, Sigel believes the price could trend toward roughly $450,000 per coin over the course of the next cycle. Taking an even more forward-looking perspective, he described VanEck’s long-term model in which global central banks might eventually hold Bitcoin as part of their reserves, even if just at a 2% weighting. Since gold constitutes about 18% of central bank reserves worldwide, Sigel\u2019s assumption is that Bitcoin\u2019s share would be far smaller by comparison. He also factored in the prospect that Bitcoin might one day serve as a settlement currency for global trade, potentially among emerging economic alliances such as the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), which could push its valuation significantly higher. In VanEck\u2019s calculations, this scenario might place Bitcoin at $3 million per coin by 2050: \u201cWe also assume that Bitcoin is used as a settlement currency for global trade, most likely among BRICS countries. We get to three million dollars a coin by 2050, which would be about a 16% compound annual growth rate.\u201d At press time, BTC traded at $107,219. Featured image from YouTube \/ Natalie Brunell, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":663461,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5651],"tags":[428,93713,656,679,6848,1119,89185,1122,83779,14829],"class_list":["post-663457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-cycle-top-indicators","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitcoin-price-prediction","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price","tag-matthew-sigel","tag-vaneck"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin To Hit $180,000 If These Top Indicators Are Absent: VanEck<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin could soar to $180,000 in 2025 if key cycle top indicators remain muted, according to Matthew Sigel, Head of 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