According to the trend in an on-chain indicator, an analyst has explained how Bitcoin may still need to reach the top of the current bull cycle.
Bitcoin aSOPR Hasn’t Yet Reached Levels Associated With Past Cycle Tops
As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake , the Bitcoin Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is yet to go as high as during the tops of the previous cycles.
The “SOPR” refers to a popular on-chain indicator that basically tells us whether cryptocurrency investors are selling their tokens at a profit or loss right now.
This metric works by going through the blockchain history of each coin sold to see what price it was transacted at before. If this previous price for any coin was less than the price it’s being sold now, then its sale is leading to profit realization.
Similarly, coins of the opposite type would imply loss-taking. The SOPR calculates the ratio between such profits and losses being realized across the network to provide a net situation.
When the indicator’s value is greater than 1, the investors are selling their coins at a net profit. On the other hand, values under this mark suggest the dominance of loss realization in the market.
In the context of the current discussion, the SOPR itself isn’t of interest here, but rather a modified form called the “aSOPR.” This indicator adjusts the SOPR data to exclude transactions of coins made within an hour of their previous transfers (hence the “adjusted” in the front of the name).
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 90-day exponential moving average (EMA) Bitcoin aSOPR over the past few years:
The 90-day EMA value of the metric appears to have been going down in recent weeks | Source:
As displayed in the above graph, the 90-day EMA Bitcoin aSOPR had observed a rise alongside the rally earlier in the year. This implies that investors had ramped up their profit-taking as the coin’s price surged to a new all-time high (ATH).
With the bearish momentum that BTC has been facing since then, though, the indicator has also seen a cooldown. At the peak of the profit realization spree, the indicator had crossed the 1.05 mark, but now it has come down to just 1.01.
As the quant has highlighted in the chart, the bull run tops in 2017 and 2021 occurred as the indicator approached a value of 1.1. The recent high in the indicator has been significantly below this mark.
The peak level seen in the recent rally was similar to the one witnessed during the peak of the April 2019 rally. This recovery surge from the previous cycle had only been a prelude to the real bull run that would come later, so BTC may also see something similar play out this time.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has enjoyed a rally of around 5% in the past 24 hours, taking its price back above the $63,000 level.
Looks like the price of the coin has seen an uplift recently | Source:
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.
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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.
In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.
Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.
Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..
Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.
Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.
As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.
Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.
Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.
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