Data shows the ratio between two Bitcoin on-chain metrics has recently formed a pattern that has historically been bullish for the asset’s price.
Bitcoin LTH/STH SOPR Ratio Has Crossed Above Its 90-Day MA Recently
In a new on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has discussed about the recent trend in the Bitcoin SOPR Ratio. The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us about whether the Bitcoin investors as a whole are selling at a profit or loss.
When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the average holder is making BTC transactions at a net profit. On the other hand, it being under the mark implies loss-taking is dominant on the network.
The SOPR Ratio, the actual metric of interest here, keeps track of the ratio between the version of the SOPR specifically for short-term holders and that for long-term holders.
Short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs) are the two main divisions of the Bitcoin userbase made on the basis of holding time. The cutoff between these cohorts is 155 days, with investors who hold past this mark moving from the STHs to the LTHs.
Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SOPR Ratio and its 90-day moving average (MA) over the history of the cryptocurrency:
The indicator appears to have crossed above the 90-day MA in recent days | Source:
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin SOPR Ratio has seen a surge recently, which suggests the LTHs have been ramping up their profit-taking compared to the STHs.
This trend is something that has historically been witnessed during bullish periods, since the LTHs are resolute entities who tend to amass large profits by the time the bull run hits in full swing.
The STHs are by definition the holders who bought within the past five months, meaning that their cost basis lies somewhere around the prices that BTC was trading at inside this window.
Thus, their profits are never as big as the LTHs, who often have their cost basis close to bear market lows. This is why the ratio blows up toward the LTHs in bullish periods.
With the latest increase, the SOPR Ratio has reached a value of 1.8 and has surpassed its 90-day MA. In the chart, the CryptoQuant author has highlighted the past instances of this crossover. It would appear that this pattern has generally proven to be bullish for Bitcoin.
Naturally, the profit-taking from the LTHs can be a concern, but as is apparent from the graph, the cycle has usually only been at risk of topping out when the ratio has broken above a value of 7.
Thus, there could still be plenty of room to run for Bitcoin, with demand potentially absorbing the LTH profit-taking until the same extreme levels as the past cycles.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $68,200, up more than 1% over the last 24 hours.
The price of the coin seems to have been moving sideways recently | Source:
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.
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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.
In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.
Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.
Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..
Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.
Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.
As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.
Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.
Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.
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