On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross is currently at a level that could suggest BTC to be underpriced.
Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Has Been Inside Oversold Region Recently
As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake , the cryptocurrency could enter into a recovery phase based on the NVT Golden Cross reading. The “NVT ratio” is an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the network’s transaction volume (both in USD).
When the value of this metric is high, it means that the cryptocurrency’s value (that is, its market cap) is high compared to its ability to transact coins (the transaction volume). Such a trend could imply the asset is overpriced right now.
On the other hand, the indicator assuming a low value implies the market cap isn’t overinflated compared to the transaction volume, so the coin could have room to see a surge.
In the context of the current topic, the NVT ratio itself isn’t of interest, but rather a modified version called the NVT Golden Cross. This metric compares the NVT ratio’s short-term trend against its long-term trend to identify the indicator’s tops and bottoms.
The 10-day moving average (MA) represents the short-term trend, while the 30-day MA corresponds to the long-term trend. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the NVT Golden Cross for Bitcoin over the past few years:
In the graph, the quant has highlighted two historically important regions for the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross. In the zone above 2.2, the asset may be considered overvalued and due a correction.
Similarly, the region below the -1.6 line is where bottoms have occurred, as the coin becomes underpriced here. The chart shows that the indicator’s value has recently declined in this latter zone.
The last time the NVT Golden Cross declined into the undervalued zone was during the market downturn that had followed the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval at the start of the year. This drop was succeeded by the cryptocurrency’s rally towards a new all-time high (ATH).
Thus, it’s possible that Bitcoin could also end up enjoying a rally this time. The surge may also have already begun, as the coin has recovered beyond the $64,000 level since its plunge under $54,000.
Despite this rally, the NVT Golden Cross still has a value of -1.8, within the undervalued zone. If this indicator is anything to go by, the run could still have room to go.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $64,900, up 13% in the past week.
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.
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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.
In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.
Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.
Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..
Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.
Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.
As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.
Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.
Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.
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