An analyst has explained how the worst could be behind for Bitcoin, and Q4 may bring back bullish momentum if history is anything to go by.
Q3 Has Historically Been The Worst Time For Bitcoin Investors
In a new on X, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards talked about how investors are going through the worst time for Bitcoin. Below is the table cited by the analyst, which breaks down the quarterly returns the cryptocurrency has seen throughout its history.
The returns of each quarter for every year since 2013 | Source:
As is visible, the third quarter of the year has generally been the worst time for Bitcoin throughout history, with average returns for the month standing at +5% and median ones at -4%
For perspective, the second-worst performing quarter tends to be Q2, but its average and median returns of +27% and +7%, respectively, are still significantly better than Q3’s.
On the other side of the spectrum is Q4, the next quarter of the current year. Bitcoin has had its best periods this quarter, with average and median returns at +89% and +57%, respectively.
“If you are still here, congratulations. You made it through the worst time to be in Bitcoin,” says Edwards in the post about BTC traders. “The best lies ahead.”
Last year, the cryptocurrency enjoyed an uplift of almost 57% in this period. With Q3 fast approaching a close, it remains to be seen how the BTC price ends up performing in Q4 this time around.
Speaking of historical patterns, on-chain analyst Checkmate how the daily price performance distribution has looked across bear and bull markets in an X post.
Here is the chart shared by the analyst:
How daily returns have differed between bearish and bullish phases for BTC | Source:
As displayed in the above graph, around 28% of bear market days have seen the asset trend higher than +1%, while about 38% have seen it decline by more than -1%. The remaining 34% of the days have seen the cryptocurrency remain within +1% to -1% of the previous day.
During bullish periods, Bitcoin has spent 33% of the days witnessing a rise of more than +1%, while 26% registering a drop of over -1%. The asset has consolidated for the remaining 41%.
The symmetry between the three types of days is interesting, but what stands out is how the distributions are almost the same between bear and bull markets.
“Day traders are attempting to beat a three-sided coin, with a third of all days rallying, a third selling-off, and a third doing nothing,” notes Checkmate.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has shown a sudden burst of bullish momentum during the last 24 hours as its price has jumped more than 5%, reaching the $60,900 level.
The price of the asset appears to have surged over the past day | Source:
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.
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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.
In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.
Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.
Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..
Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.
Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.
As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.
Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.
Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.
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