On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio has recently been nearing in on a death cross formation.
Bitcoin 30-Day MA MVRV Ratio May Be About To Cross Under 365-Day MA
As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake , the MVRV Ratio is at risk of going through a death cross. The “MVRV Ratio” is a popular Bitcoin on-chain indicator that, in short, keeps track of how the value held by the investors (that is, the market cap) compares against the value put in by them (the realized cap).
When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the investors as a whole are in a state of net profit right now. On the other hand, it being under this threshold suggests the dominance of loss in the market.
Naturally, the MVRV Ratio being exactly equal to 1 implies the BTC holders are carrying exactly as much value as they initially put in, so they are just breaking-even.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio, as well as its 30-day and 90-day moving averages (MAs), over the past few years:
The two MAs appear to have come together in recent weeks | Source:
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio had shot up to pretty high levels back in March when the cryptocurrency’s price had rallied to a new all-time high (ATH).
But as investors have taken their profits and sold during the long consolidation phase that has followed since then, the indicator has gone down. That said, the indicator is still at a value of 1.88, which indicates the market cap is nearly twice the realized cap. Thus, the investors should still be quite comfortable.
What can be concerning, however, is the speed at which the drawdown in the MVRV Ratio has occurred. From the chart, it’s visible that the 30-day MA of the metric has gone through a steep drop and is now retesting the 365-day MA.
Historically, the 30-day MA of the MVRV Ratio crossing below the 365-day MA has usually led to a bearish phase for the cryptocurrency. Such a death cross last occurred near the end of 2021, foreshadowing the bear market that would follow in 2022.
At present, the death cross in these MAs of the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio is yet to confirm, so the indicator can be to monitor in the near future. In the scenario that the 30-day MA continues in this trajectory and falls below the 365-day MA, BTC could end up witnessing another period with bears at the helm.
There is also the possibility, however, that the indicator turns itself around and the death cross formation doesn’t actually end up taking shape.
BTC Price
Bitcoin had broken past the $61,000 level yesterday, but it would appear that the surge couldn’t last as the asset has already come down to $59,400.
The price of the coin seems to have been moving sideways over the past few days | Source:
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.
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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.
In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.
Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.
Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..
Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.
Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.
As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.
Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.
Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.
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