An analyst explained that the next target for Bitcoin could be $78,700 if BTC could cross this resistance level of an on-chain pricing model.
Bitcoin MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands Put Resistance At $65,800
In a new on X, analyst Ali has discussed some price levels for Bitcoin that could be important based on an on-chain pricing model. The model is based on the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio.
The MVRV ratio is a popular indicator that, in short, keeps track of the ratio between the value the Bitcoin investors are holding right now (the market cap) and what they initially used to purchase their coins (the realized cap). This metric tells us about the profit/loss situation of the market as a whole.
Now, a pricing model called the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands uses standard deviations from the all-time mean of the MVRV ratio to determine significant price levels for the cryptocurrency.
Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows how the levels relevant to this model have looked recently.
The chart’s yellow line in the middle represents the price level at which the MVRV ratio would become equal to its all-time mean. At present, this level is equal to around $52,900.
The level above this line, colored in orange, corresponds to +0.5 standard deviation (SD) above the indicator’s mean. Currently, the cryptocurrency’s spot price is under this mark, implying that the MVRV ratio’s deviation is smaller than +0.5 SD.
Ali notes that this level, corresponding to +0.5 SD, at about $65,800, is “one of the most crucial resistance areas” for Bitcoin. The graph shows that Bitcoin struggled to break above this level during retests in December 2023 and January 2024.
The analyst says that if BTC can break past this resistance, the $78,700 mark, corresponding to +1 SD from the MVRV ratio mean, could be the next significant target.
Historically, tops in the asset have become more probable to form when the MVRV ratio has deviated above this line. The all-time high (ATH) price earlier in the year, which continues to be the rally’s peak, also occurred soon after the asset rose above this level.
From the current spot price of Bitcoin, a surge towards this potential target of $78,700 would suggest an increase of more than 27% for the cryptocurrency. Before the asset could dream of retesting this level, it would need to break past the $65,800 resistance.
BTC Price
Bitcoin surged past the $63,800 level yesterday but has seen a setback in the past 24 hours, as its price has now dropped to $61,800.
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.
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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.
In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.
Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.
Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..
Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.
Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.
As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.
Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.
Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.
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