On-chain data shows the Bitcoin transfer volume of retail investors has seen a sharp decline recently, a sign that this group may be losing interest.
Bitcoin Volume For Retail-Sized Transactions Has Plunged Recently
As explained by CrypoQuant author Axel Adler Jr in a new on X, the total BTC transfer volume for transactions valued between $1,000 and $10,000 has gone down recently.
The “transfer volume” here refers to the total amount of Bitcoin (in USD) that addresses on the network are moving around daily. This metric isn’t confused with the “trading volume,” which typically keeps track of only the volume involved in trades on spot exchanges.
When the value of the transfer volume is high, it means the users are moving around large amounts on the blockchain right now. Such a trend implies that investors are actively interested in trading the asset.
On the other hand, the low metric suggests that holders may not pay attention to the cryptocurrency as they aren’t participating in much activity on the network.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 30-day moving average (MA) Bitcoin transfer volume specifically for the transactions involving the movement of coins worth at least $1,000 and at most $10,000:
The value of the metric appears to have been heading down in recent weeks | Source:
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin transfer volume for transactions of this size spiked to relatively high levels during the rally earlier in the year.
The $1,000 to $10,000-sized transfers are considered relatively small, so their volume would reflect the level of activity of the smallest of investors in the market: retail.
The increase in this metric from earlier in the year would suggest the price surge ignited interest in the asset from these investors. The chart shows that a similar trend was also observed during the previous bull run.
Sharp price action is generally exciting to retail investors, so it’s not surprising that they tend to become more active during rallies. This increased interest is what makes any surge sustainable for extended periods. As such, only rallies that can attract retail interest can hope to last.
As the chart shows, the Bitcoin transfer volume for retail-sized moves peaked in May and has since seen a sharp drawdown of 30%. This would mean that the bearish price action has made these investors disappear.
Interestingly, the downtrend in the indicator persisted even when Bitcoin had made a recovery back above $70,000 a few weeks ago, which could have been a potential foreshadowing that this rally would never stay.
With the 30-day retail transfer volume floating at the same lows as during the bearish period in July 2021, any new recovery runs could also be set up for failure unless the indicator shows a revival.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $62,200, down over 4% in the past week.
Looks like the price of the asset hasn’t made much recovery from its plunge yet | Source:
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.
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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.
In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.
Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.
Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..
Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.
Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.
As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.
Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.
Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.
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