Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis: Bullish Arguments
#1 Bitcoin Hashrate
The Bitcoin hashrate, which gauges the computational power utilized in mining and processing transactions, is nearing an all-time high (ATH). Ju notes, “Miner capitulation is nearly over, with hashrate nearing ATH. US mining costs are ~$43K per BTC, so hashrate likely stable unless prices dip below this.”
#2 Whale Behavior
Significant Bitcoin inflows into custody wallets are another argument to be bullish, indicating strong accumulation by large-scale investors, often referred to as ‘whales’. Ju highlights, “Significant BTC inflows into custody wallets. Permanent Holder addresses increased by 404K BTC, including 40K BTC in US spot ETFs over the last 30 days. New whales are accumulating.”#3 Retail Investor Participation
The current subdued participation of retail investors is similar to patterns observed in mid-2020. Ju remarks, “Retail investors are mostly absent, similar to mid-2020.” This absence might contribute to less volatility, as retail trading often leads to rapid price swings.
#4 Old Whales Still HODL
Between March and June, long-term holders (those who have held for over three years) transferred their Bitcoin holdings to newer investors. Currently, there is no significant selling pressure from these veteran holders.Bearish On-Chain Data
#1 Macro Risks
On the downside, Ju points out macroeconomic risks and recent market activities that could impact Bitcoin’s price stability: “Macro risks could lead to forced sell-offs. There were large crypto deposits by Jump Trading recently, and Binance hit YTD high in daily deposits.”
#2 Borderline On-Chain Indicators
While some on-chain indicators have recently turned bearish, these are borderline, according to Ju. He asserts, “Some on-chain indicators turned bearish but are borderline. If bearish trends persist for over two weeks, market recovery could be challenging.”#3 Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Flags Bear Phase
Notably, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has also flagged a bear phase for the first time since January 2023 (high blue area in the chart), warranting close observation. CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno added that this indicator has previously identified limited bear phases during significant market events like the COVID sell-off in March 2020 and the Chinese mining ban in May 2021. Moreover, it also correctly anticipated the start of the bear market in November 2021.
Despite these bearish undercurrents, Ju remains cautiously optimistic about the potential of Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high until the end of the year. “As long as the Bitcoin price stays above $45K, it could break its all-time high again within a year, imo. Some indicators are showing bearish signals. However, they could still recover with a rebound, so we need to watch if it stays at this level for a week or two. If it lingers longer, the risk of a bear market grows, and recovery may be difficult if it lasts over a month,” Ju concludes.
At press time, BTC traded at $56,639.