The Case For An Impending Altcoin Season
Astronomer lays out a series of facts to support his argument that an altcoin season is still on the horizon:#1 Historical Precedence
“First fact: we had the big altcoin season every single cycle (4-year rotation) like clockwork,” he asserts. This pattern is not only evident in historical charts but also in the collective memory of those active during previous cycles. Astronomer cautions against adopting a “this time is different” mindset, which inherently positions investors at a disadvantage. “History rhymes/repeats,” he reminds readers.#2 Bitcoin Dominance Chart Aligns With 4-Year Cycle
“The BTC.D chart is on track with its 4-year cycle,” Astronomer notes. He previously predicted that a top in Bitcoin dominance would occur around months 34 to 38 of the cycle. “We are now month 33 in the 4-year cycle, which means the tides are about to shift in just a few months,” he points out. Believing that Bitcoin dominance will continue to rise unchecked is essentially betting against established cyclical patterns, according to the analyst.
#3 The Grand Crypto Rotation
“The ‘first Grand Altcoin rotation’ generally happens once per cycle: around Q4 in year 3 of the cycle and is again playing out like clockwork so far,” Astronomer states. He explains that in previous cycles, certain altcoins (a minority) perform strongly early on, driven by specific narratives, while the majority experience significant gains later, fueled by liquidity flowing from Bitcoin. He cites the 2018–2022 cycle as a prime example. “In this cycle, in the first 3 years, LINK is a great example as it was one of the strongest top 100 altcoins and has put in a 100x, while ETH (and all the other BTC liquidity-driven altcoins) have put in a measly 3x,” he explains. In the last year of that cycle, the dynamics shifted: “ETH has put in a 10x, and LINK has only gained another 3x or so.”#4 Overrated Impact Of Bitcoin ETF
Addressing the notion that the approval of a Bitcoin ETF has fundamentally altered market dynamics, Astronomer is skeptical. “The BTC ETF narrative to cancel alt season is way overrated,” he argues. He points out that since their launch, ETF total flows have accumulated up to $40 billion, while Bitcoin’s centralized exchange (CEX) volumes average $20 billion daily. “ETF flows are negligible, which is why you never heard me talk about them as I like to filter noise,” he asserts.
#5 Favorable Monetary Policy Looms
Astronomer also highlights macroeconomic factors that could benefit altcoins. “Interest rates are on the decline, the US money supply is increasing drastically (where now also China is following suit). The only thing we are waiting for is QE, which is typically a natural consequence of M2 increasing (with a delay),” he explains. Historically, such monetary conditions have been conducive to altcoin appreciation. “The monetary policy shifting in our favor typically also means altcoins do well,” he notes.