Bitcoin Daily Golden Cross: 50-Day And 200-Day Moving Averages

As pictured above, BTCUSD has triggered a daily golden cross of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. In technical analysis, a golden cross happens when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average. This typically suggests that there is an actively trending environment and price is expected to appreciate.

The opposite, bearish signal is referred to as a death cross. The chart above also depicts a death cross in August 2024. However, its appearance didn’t lead to a prolonged downtrend. Could this also mean that this latest golden cross might not produce a sustainable uptrend?

BTCUSD Golden Cross And Death Cross Recent History

Zooming out provides a more clear picture of the signal’s effectiveness since the bear market bottom in November 2022. BTCUSD rising from bear market lows around $16,000 to $23,000 was enough to pull the 50-day moving average above the 200-day average, triggering the first golden cross of 2023.

This kept Bitcoin trending higher until it reached roughly $32,000, then fell to retest lows around $25,000. The bearish short-term price action then triggered a death cross. Here, much like we saw in 2024, Bitcoin trended sideways and avoided a downtrend. It didn’t take much upside to force another golden cross. From that golden cross, BTCUSD rallied another 100%, doubling in price.

The chart above shows that the golden cross in October 2024 occurred just months after the death cross, just like it did in late 2024. Could that mean another 100% rally from current levels? If so, Bitcoin price could reach as high as $140,000 before beginning to show weakness.

Buy And Hold: Using Moving Average Crosses As A Trading System

Using the 50-day and 200-day moving averages as a buy and hold trading system starting from 2018 would have yielded significant results. The first golden cross fired in April 2019 at around $5,000 per BTC. A death cross in October 2019 closed out the trade and sold some coins. A quick golden cross and death cross combo in early 2020 led to a small loss. May 2020’s golden cross more than made up for it, triggering when Bitcoin was trading just below $10,000.

The trade stayed open while Bitcoin blasted off into its most bullish trend in recent years and eventually closed with the next death cross in Jun 2021 at around $35,000 per BTC. This kept $25,000 in profit from the trade, combined with the initial $4,000 profit from the early 2019 trade to make $29,000. The small loss takes the total closer to $28,500.

In September 2021, BTCUSD golden crossed again at around $45,000, only to shortly later death cross at $3,000 lower. This death cross stayed active until Bitcoin shed another $30,000. Fortunately, using the two moving averages as a buy and hold trading system meant the death cross moved you to cash �avoiding the worst of the bear market.

Come early 2023, Bitcoin was ready to begin a new uptrend and the golden cross triggered at $23,000. A death cross formed at $27,000, keeping another $6,000 worth of profits. Another golden cross in October 2023 triggered at $35,000, riding all the way to $62,000 when the most recent death cross closed out the trade.

In six trades total, the 50/200MA trading system would have earned approximately $58,500 as Bitcoin traveled from around $5,000 to $74,000. Four out of the six trades were profitable and the two losses were relatively minor when compared to the profits generated.

Tony Severino, CMT is the author of the CoinChartist (VIP) newsletter. Sign up for free. Follow @TonyTheBullBTC & @coinchartist_io on Twitter. Or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

This emerging positivity in BTC’s market indicators comes on the heels of the asset seeing a gradual recovery in price over the past weeks.

Earlier today, BTC again came closer to the $70,000 mark with a 24 hour high of $69,217. However, the asset has since retraced with a current trading price of $68,644, up 1.6% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Flash Buy Signal

According to an analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the “Hash Ribbonsâ€?indicator has flashed a buy signal, historically aligning with strong long-term performance for BTC. This signal follows an earlier occurrence during the summer, indicating strong prospects for Bitcoin’s growth.

The Hash Ribbons indicator tracks shifts in Bitcoin’s hash rate, an important metric that reflects the overall health of the mining ecosystem.

As Darkfost explains, this indicator has consistently proven accurate in predicting Bitcoin price rallies, with only one notable exception during the COVID-19 pandemic, creating a unique market disruption.

By analyzing Hash Ribbons chart, Darkfost noted: “This suggests that another BTC rally could potentially occur over the middle-term.”

Miners�Position Signals Market Optimism

Adding to the bullish outlook, another analyst, Avocado onchain, has pointed out a notable trend in miners’ behavior, which may also contribute to an optimistic price outlook for BTC. Miners play a critical role in Bitcoin’s cyclical market patterns, often influencing price volatility with their buying and selling actions.

According to Avocado, miners tend to hold onto their Bitcoin rather than sell during periods of price stagnation, which can create favorable conditions for a price surge when demand picks up.

Miners Are Betting on a Bitcoin Price Rise

“Historically, when the MPI rebounded from a low, #Bitcoin’s price tended to experience significant increases.â€?â€?By @avocado_onchain

Read more //t.co/aa9bcHN9XJ pic.twitter.com/8PsOQdBMEl

�CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 28, 2024

The Miner Position Index (MPI) shows that miners still hold onto their Bitcoin with minimal movement toward exchanges, indicating limited selling pressure from these influential market participants.

Historically, a rebound in the MPI has been associated with Bitcoin price increases, suggesting miners are holding onto assets in anticipation of higher prices.

Additionally, the block rewards per block—a measure of transaction activity on the network—are increasing, signaling greater activity on the Bitcoin blockchain, which often correlates with price appreciation.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin Recovery Tied To M2 Growth And Seller Exhaustion

Sigel noted the correlation between former President Donald Trump’s lead in betting polls against Vice President Kamala Harris and Bitcoin’s rise. He characterized Trump as the most pro-crypto candidate, suggesting that his policies may favor the cryptocurrency market. 

Conversely, Sigel expressed skepticism about Harris’s understanding of Bitcoin, indicating that her administration may not prioritize cryptocurrency issues.

Delving deeper into Bitcoin’s price dynamics, Sigel highlighted several critical correlations. He pointed out a negative correlation with the US dollar and a positive correlation with the global money supply growth, known as M2, leading to the current uptrend. 

Sigel also attributed the recent price recovery to the Federal Reserve’s pivot towards reacceleration of M2 growth, alongside what he described as a current “seller exhaustion” in the BTC market.  

Additionally, Sigel identified a promising bullish setup for Bitcoin as the election approaches, particularly its rising correlation with the Nasdaq, reaching a two-year high of 1.5. 

Sigel recalled a similar pattern from the 2020 elections, where Bitcoin exhibited low volatility until the election outcome was announced, leading to a substantial rally as new buyers flooded the market. “New buyers are born every day,â€?he emphasized, indicating a steady influx of interest in Bitcoin.

When discussing Bitcoin’s relationship with gold and M2, Sigel described Bitcoin as a “chameleon,” highlighting its dynamic correlations that can shift over time. This variability makes it challenging to accurately predict Bitcoin’s short- and long-term behaviors.

$180,000 Post-Election, $3 Million By 2050

In addition to US political dynamics, Sigel pointed to recent activities within the BRICS intergovernmental organization, particularly the involvement of new members Argentina, the UAE, and Ethiopia in Bitcoin mining. 

The researcher noted that these countries are leveraging government resources to mine Bitcoin to counter what he termed the “irresponsible” fiscal policies of the US. 

Sigel also mentioned Russia’s plans for its sovereign wealth fund to invest in Bitcoin mining through BRICS, proposing settling global trade in Bitcoin.

When asked about potential future price points for BTC, Sigel explained that historical rallies have seen increases of around 2,000%. If Bitcoin were to achieve half of that rise post-election, it could reach approximately $180,000. 

Looking further ahead, Sigel referenced a model from VanEck’s digital asset research team, predicting that by 2050, Bitcoin could serve as a reserve asset for global trade, held by central banks at a rate of 2%. This model suggests a staggering $3 million per Bitcoin price by that year.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $68,900, up 1.7% over the past 24 hours. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Holdings Top 1,000 BTC

In an announcement made on October 28, Tokyo-listed Metaplanet stated it had purchased an additional 156.78 BTC at an average price of $66,436 per BTC. The latest purchase has propelled Metaplanet’s total BTC holdings to 1,018 BTC, acquired at an average price of $61,629.

Commenting on the milestone, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich noted, “This latest BTC purchase makes Metaplanet one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin in Asia.â€?The company further stated:

Since adopting bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, the company has strategically increased its total bitcoin holdings through acquisitions funded by capital market activities and operational income.

Metaplanet first declared its decision to adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset in May 2024. Adhering to a “Bitcoin-first, Bitcoin-onlyâ€?approach, Metaplanet further expanded its BTC holdings with a $2 million purchase in September.

Over the summer, Metaplanet embarked on a Bitcoin acquisition spree, purchasing more than 50% – approximately 620 BTC – of its current holdings within a single month, from September 30 to October 28.

Notably, this acquisition has now placed Metaplanet ahead of another prominent Asian firm, Meitu Inc., in terms of total BTC reserves. According to CoinGecko data, Meitu Inc. currently holds 940 BTC compared to Metaplanet’s 1,018 BTC.

Among publicly traded companies with significant BTC reserves, Metaplanet now ranks 15th, with the list led by US-based business intelligence firm MicroStrategy, which holds an impressive 252,220 BTC, representing close to 1.2% of the total Bitcoin supply.

BTC Strategy Reflecting In Metaplanet’s Share Price

According to Arkham Intelligence, Metaplanet’s BTC investment strategy appears to be yielding strong results. At the current Bitcoin price of slightly above $67,000, Metaplanet has an unrealized gain of over $6 million.

In its announcement, Metaplanet highlighted a key performance indicator (KPI) called “BTC yield,â€?which reflects the percentage change in the ratio of total BTC holdings to fully diluted shares outstanding over a specific period. 

In essence, the KPI helps investors assess the impact of Metaplanet’s Bitcoin acquisitions on shareholder value. Between October 1 and October 28, Metaplanet’s BTC yield surged to 155.8%.

Following the news of today’s BTC purchase, Metaplanet’s stock price jumped more than 7%, according to data from Yahoo! Finance.

In related news, Maltese asset management firm Samara Group recently announced plans to issue bonds worth over $32 million, with a portion of the proceeds potentially allocated toward BTC purchases as a strategic reserve asset.

At press time, BTC trades at $68,780, up 1.6% in the past 24 hours, with a total market cap of slightly more than $1.35 trillion.

Last week alone, global crypto funds attracted $901 million in net inflows, pushing the total for the month to $3.4 billion.

Bitcoin Dominates Inflows As Ethereum Sees Outflows

According to CoinShares, out of the total fund flows recorded, Bitcoin-centric investment products captured the lion’s share of inflows, with $920 million in net additions over the past week.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $997.6 million in net inflows, led largely by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).

Bitcoin’s dominance was notable, with blockchain equities and Solana-based products also seeing inflows of $12.2 million and $10.8 million, respectively.

However, other Bitcoin-based products, including those outside US markets, faced some net outflows. While Bitcoin maintained strong inflows, Ethereum-based funds recorded net outflows of $34.7 million last week, signaling a decrease in investor interest.

CoinShares reported that Ethereum’s price ratio to Bitcoin had fallen to its lowest point since April 2021, which could be contributing to this outflow trend.

The data suggests that while Ethereum has seen gains in the past, investors are now focusing more on Bitcoin, possibly anticipating future regulatory clarity and further mainstream adoption with developments like spot ETFs.

Regional Trends And Behind The Boom

Geographically, US-based crypto funds attracted a substantial $906 million in net inflows last week. In contrast, other regions saw mixed results, with funds based in Sweden, Canada, Brazil, and Hong Kong collectively experiencing $29.1 million in net outflows.

This difference highlights the United States’ growing role in shaping the global crypto investment market, especially as American firms like BlackRock and Fidelity expand their crypto offerings.

According to CoinShares’ Head of Research, James Butterfill reveals that the we political climate likely influences the recent Bitcoin price movements and increase in inflows. He noted that Republican gains in the polls correlate with increased interest in Bitcoin investments.

This suggests that market participants may see a shift in political power as favourable to digital assets, potentially driving anticipation of regulatory reforms or even greater crypto acceptance.

CoinShares report shows that the October influx represents roughly 12% of assets under management (AUM) in digital asset funds and marks the fourth-largest month for inflows on record. This brings the year-to-date total to $27 billion, almost tripling the previous high of $10.5 billion set in 2021.

Featured imahge created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

• Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $68,000 zone.
• The price is trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $68,700 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair is surging and might rise above the $72,000 resistance zone or even to a new all-time high.

Bitcoin Price Starts Fresh Surge

Bitcoin price found support near the $66,500 zone. BTC formed a base and started a fresh increase above the $68,000 resistance. The bulls were able to pump the price above the $70,000 resistance.

The price regained strength and cleared the $70,500 level. It is up over 5% and trading above the $71,000 level. A high was formed at $71,482 and the price is now showing signs of strength. It is well above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65,531 swing low to the $71,482 high.

Bitcoin price is now trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $71,500 level.

The first key resistance is near the $72,000 level. A clear move above the $72,000 resistance might send the price higher. The next key resistance could be $72,200. A close above the $72,200 resistance might initiate more gains. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $73,000 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $74,000 resistance level and a new all-time high. Any more gains might call for a test of $75,000.

Are Dips Supported In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $72,000 resistance zone, it could start a downside correction. Immediate support on the downside is near the $70,500 level.

The first major support is near the $68,500 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65,531 swing low to the $71,482 high. The next support is now near the $67,800 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $66,500 support in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD �The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) �The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels �$70,500, followed by $68,500.

Major Resistance Levels �$71,500, and $72,000.

$70,000 As Key Level For Bitcoin To Surpass March Record

The recent uptick in Bitcoin’s price has been bolstered by a rally in the stock market, with analysts noting that investors are increasingly pricing in a potential Trump victory. 

Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia Pty, indicated that Bitcoin needs to maintain a solid break past $70,000 to build confidence in surpassing its previous record of $73,798 set in March.

Trump has positioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate, pledging to make the US the cryptocurrency capital of the world. In contrast, Harris has taken a more cautious stance, advocating for a regulatory framework for the industry. 

Amidst the political backdrop, options traders have ramped up their bets, with many speculating that Bitcoin could reach $80,000 by the end of November, irrespective of who wins the election. 

Implied volatility around Election Day on November 5 has also risen, reflecting the uncertainty in the market. Notably, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have seen approximately $3.1 billion in net inflows this month, further contributing to the positive sentiment surrounding cryptocurrencies.

Regulatory Concerns Surround Harris’s Stance On Crypto

Crypto analyst VirtualBacon recently highlighted the significance of the upcoming election for the cryptocurrency market, dubbing it the “Crypto Election.”Â?/p>

Prediction markets currently favor Trump at 60%, although these figures may be skewed due to the crypto community’s historical support for him. National polls indicate a tighter race, with Harris holding a slight lead of just over 1%. 

The crypto industry has contributed approximately $119 million to campaigns this election year, representing nearly half of all corporate donations. 

However, major players like Coinbase and Ripple are strategically donating across party lines to promote supportive legislation rather than backing a single candidate.

While both Trump and Harris have publicly expressed favorable views on cryptocurrency, their commitments to concrete legislative action remain uncertain. 

Harris’s regulatory approach raises concerns, as her campaign has emphasized protecting minority investors in digital assets without providing specifics. 

Moreover, her tenure as Vice President coincided with the appointments of prominent crypto critics such as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair Gary Gensler, and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

On the other hand, Trump’s evolving views towards cryptocurrency, including the launch of a successful NFT project and a DeFi platform, suggest a warming to the industry. 

As the election approaches, VirtualBacon suggests that it’s crucial to consider that economic data released post-election will significantly influence market sentiment. 

The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in November could provide critical insights into inflation and liquidity, impacting both the broader market and the trajectory of cryptocurrencies.

Despite the speculation surrounding the impact of the presidential election, which is just 7 days away, another analyst, Ali Martinez, noted that over the past eleven years, seven of them have seen massive gains for the market’s leading crypto.

As can be seen in the chart provided by Martinez, the average November gain for BTC is a massive 46%, which if the market follows these late patterns, could see a November price of just over $100,000 per coin.

However, for BTC to confirm a breakout to retest its all-time high, it will be key for it to consolidate above the $70,000 mark in the coming days ahead of the election, positioning it well for a dramatic breakout to even higher prices. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Central banks’ role shrinks as the Bitcoin ecosystem grows and its use cases expand. This prevailing belief is validated by a growing amount of research from financial institutions and central banks that assess Bitcoin’s disruptive nature. The ever-increasing narrative focuses on Bitcoin’s role in promoting inequality and its potential to disrupt central banksâ€?policies.

The Role Of Bitcoin In Distributing Wealth

One subject of central banksâ€?studies highlights Bitcoin’s role in wealth distribution. To help us understand Bitcoin’s role, we look at two papers published by the European Central Bank. The first paper, published after the FTX fiasco in 2022, is titled “Bitcoin’s Last Stand,â€?/a> which sees the top crypto as a failed monetary project nearing its end.

But in 2024, when Bitcoin hit an all-time high, the same researchers filed another study, painting Bitcoin positively. The paper argued that crypto can impact wealth distribution, but only the early holders get richer. Since Bitcoin or crypto use doesn’t produce a product or service, the increased wealth of early adopters comes from the reduced consumption of all other members of society.

Does BTC Disrupt Monetary Policies?

Other finance-related researches look at Bitcoin’s impact on monetary policies. For example, the Minneapolis Federal Reserve argues that when people can hold and use Bitcoin, it is difficult for the state to run budget deficits regularly.

Traditionally, the government can just offer bonds in case there’s a deficit in revenue collection. But governments may only spend what they usually collect if there’s Bitcoin. The study suggests two options: one, to ban Bitcoin’s adoption, and two, to tax this asset.

In addition to the Minneapolis paper, an IMF policy paper in 2023 highlighted Bitcoin’s effect on monetary policy. The paper argues that Bitcoin impacts a state’s policy, and emerging markets are most vulnerable. As a solution, the researchers recommend strengthening their monetary policies first before banning Bitcoin.

Central Banks, Financial Institutions Now Take Bitcoin Seriously

Recent studies and research from central banks indicate that Bitcoin is redefining finance. While these papers don’t mirror the ideas and thinking of policymakers at these institutions, they give us insight into how the industry sees Bitcoin. Some recent policies, including the IMF 2022 Argentina bailout recommendations, include a few anti-cryptocurrency provisions.

Bitcoin’s continued popularity is now becoming an obstacle for many central banks in their efforts to create monetary policies. One of the main aims of Bitcoin’s supporters is to offer the public an alternative financing landscape free from the direction, if not, clutches of banks.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin US To The Rest Reserve Ratio Has Seen A Reversal Recently

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst discussed the recent trend in the BTC US to The Rest Reserve Ratio. This indicator tells us, as its name suggests, the ratio between the total Bitcoin reserves of the US-based centralized platforms and that of the global ones. Platforms here refer to not just the exchanges, but also other entities like banks and funds.

When the value of this metric is rising, it means the asset is currently moving from offshore platforms to American ones. Such a trend can be a sign of demand from the US-based investors. On the other hand, the indicator going down suggests the foreign platforms have higher demand for BTC right now as the American exchanges are losing dominance to them.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the Bitcoin US to The Reserve Ratio over the past year and a half:

As displayed in the above graph, the 100-day EMA Bitcoin US to The Rest Reserve Ratio had been declining earlier in the year, but during the past couple of months, its value has bottomed out and shown a reversal to the upside. This would mean that a transfer of BTC is now occurring from global platforms to the US-based ones. In the chart, the quant has marked the last instance of the indicator displaying this trend.

It would appear that the previous turnaround in the metric had occurred in the last quarter of 2023 and had accompanied a BTC rally that would eventually take the asset to a new all-time high (ATH). The sharpest part of this increase in the indicator had come in the first quarter of 2024. The reason behind this acceleration had been the introduction of the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, which had quickly gained popularity among the investors.

From the graph, it’s also visible, though, that a while after the price had reached the ATH, the metric had topped out and witnessed a reversal in direction. Thus, the spot ETFs couldn’t keep up the same level of interest.

The analyst notes that BTC’s sustained consolidation this year can be traced back to this decrease in the reserve of the US-based platforms. Since the indicator has once again shown a turnaround recently, it’s possible that Bitcoin could see the return of bullish momentum, if the previous pattern is to go by.

BTC Price

Following a 2% jump during the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has returned back to the $68,700 level.

Krueger began his analysis by acknowledging the prevalent skepticism in the market. “There’s all this paper Bitcoin, and ETFs don’t really have the Bitcoin, and if they were buying all this Bitcoin, how come Bitcoin price is not higher?” he stated, encapsulating the core concerns of many investors.

Historically, the concept of “paper Bitcoin” has been associated with exchanges that sold Bitcoin to customers without actually possessing the underlying assets. Krueger highlighted several high-profile instances where this practice led to significant losses for investors. He cited the case of Mt. Gox.

Another example he provided was QuadrigaCX, a Canadian exchange that collapsed under mysterious circumstances. Founder Gerald Cotten allegedly died in India, taking with him the private keys to the exchange’s cold wallets, effectively locking away customer funds. “A lot of Canadians lost all their Bitcoin on this Quad exchange,” Krueger noted.

Are “ETF Paper Bitcoin” Real?

These historical events have contributed to the current apprehension about ETFs and the possibility that they might be engaging in similar practices—selling Bitcoin they do not actually hold, thereby suppressing BTC’s price through artificial supply. However, Krueger argued that ETFs, particularly those managed by established financial institutions, operate under a fundamentally different framework compared to unregulated exchanges.

Focusing on two leading ETFs—IBIT, the BlackRock ETF, and FBTC, the Fidelity ETF—Krueger emphasized the stringent regulatory oversight governing these entities. “Both of these ETFs are subject to very strict regulatory oversight, including the SEC but also other agencies in the US,” he stated. This comprehensive oversight includes requirements for complete transparency, regular audits, and the use of third-party custodians for asset verification. “They literally have to get a receipt of an asset from a third-party custodian,” Krueger added.

In the case of IBIT, Coinbase serves as the third-party custodian. “Coinbase is itself a public company that is audited,” Krueger pointed out, noting that the public nature of Coinbase adds an additional layer of scrutiny and accountability. IBIT conducts audits of Coinbase, and both entities are subject to audits by the SEC and other regulatory bodies. For FBTC, custody is handled by Fidelity Digital Assets, a separate entity within Fidelity that specializes in the custody of digital assets, thereby ensuring specialized oversight and management.

“The issuers of IBIT and FBTC are BlackRock and Fidelity, two of the largest and oldest financial institutions, and they have a vested interest in maintaining their reputation,” Krueger asserted. “Their reputation is at stake, and this is a big deal,” he emphasized, suggesting that these institutions would not risk their credibility by engaging in the sale of non-existent Bitcoin.

Krueger contrasted BlackRock with entities like QuadrigaCX to underscore the disparity in regulatory compliance and operational scale. “BlackRock is highly regulated […] BlackRock has a robust corporate governance structure with committees for audit, risk, and compliance and very extensive internal controls,” Krueger added.

Addressing the core concern about ETFs holding “paper Bitcoin,” Krueger provided specific data to refute this notion. “The reality is the ETFs have zero pure paper Bitcoin,” he stated unequivocally. He highlighted that IBIT holds approximately 403,000 actual Bitcoins, while FBTC holds about 185,000 actual Bitcoins. “Together, these two ETFs hold almost 3% of the world’s total Bitcoin, or 588,000 Bitcoins—I think it’s 2.9%,” he calculated.

Krueger acknowledged that some skeptics have attempted to analyze Bitcoin movement between specific dates to challenge these holdings. However, he emphasized that the facts are clear and verifiable. “We know how much Bitcoin these ETFs have; we know that it’s accounted for, and that’s a reality,” he insisted.

Turning to the question of why Bitcoin’s price has not increased more dramatically despite significant ETF inflows, Krueger offered a nuanced explanation. He noted that Bitcoin is, in fact, up by 60% since the introduction of the ETFs, translating to a $600 billion increase in market capitalization. This growth has been fueled by approximately $20 billion in net inflows into the ETFs, resulting in a price multiplier effect of about 30x. “That’s historically about normal, maybe a little on the low side but not terribly so,” he assessed.

Krueger attributed the moderation in Bitcoin’s price growth to substantial selling pressures from various sources. “There’s been a bunch of selling,” he explained. He detailed that Germany sold $3 billion worth of Bitcoin as well as Mt. Gox holdings. Additionally, FTX sold its GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) stake earlier in the year, and the Digital Currency Group (DCG) sold assets to resolve lawsuits. “We had a lot of selling,” Krueger summarized.

Speculating on the potential impact absent these selling pressures, Krueger suggested that Bitcoin’s price could have been significantly higher. “We probably would be at $90k if there wasn’t any selling,” he posited.

At press time, BTC traded at $68,752.