{"id":500855,"date":"2022-09-02T07:07:20","date_gmt":"2022-09-02T07:07:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/?p=500855"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:35:32","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:35:32","slug":"bear-market-who-data-shows-high-conviction-in-btc-and-eth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/news\/bear-market-who-data-shows-high-conviction-in-btc-and-eth\/","title":{"rendered":"Bear Market Who? Data Shows High Conviction In BTC And ETH"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This is the weirdest bear market to date. It seems like most people were prepared for it, even though the death spirals and Chapter 11 bankruptcies that started it came out of nowhere. In any case, every coin is in the red. The market should be in a state of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. That is certainly not the case for the two leading cryptocurrencies. The circumstances might be different for each one, but both markets show signs of unwavering conviction.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\" style=\"text-align: center\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/62-of-addresses-keep-their-bitcoin-holdings-for-over-a-year-in-bear\/\"> 62% Of Addresses Keep Their Bitcoin Holdings For Over A Year In Bear<\/a><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Long-time holders of bitcoin and ethereum seem to be laughing in the bear market \u2019s face. In <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getrevue.co\/profile\/TheWolfDen\/issues\/the-wolf-den-571-hodlers-gonna-hodl-1325928\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">the latest edition of The Wolf Den<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, the author uses Glassnode and Intotheblock\u2019s data to show us how this is true.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The Bear Market Vs. Bitcoin<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cOn-chain evidence from Glassnode suggests that there has been no meaningful reduction in the conviction of long term believers,\u201d the newsletter states. To prove this, The Wolf Den looks at the \u201cDormancy Metric.\u201d The number that \u201ctracks the average age of every Bitcoin that moves, determined by when it was mined. One of the ways to gauge the sentiment of long-term holders is to asses the average age of coins moving around the market.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">As attentive readers might suspect, the coins that are \u201cmoving around the market\u201d are extremely young. In fact, their age \u201cis at multi-year lows. The dormancy value is very low.\u201d This is consistent with previous bear markets, in which dormancy values tend to be low. The newsletter quotes analysis from Glassnode:<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cThe decline in lifespan metrics actually bodes well for the longer-term, as it indicates old coins are stationary, and declining prices have little psychological impact on this cohort\u2019s conviction.\u201d<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">So, everything looks where it\u2019s supposed to be if we focus on the big picture. A healthy habit during bear markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-500857 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/BTCUSD_2022-09-02_03-44-07.png?resize=460%2C256\" alt=\"BTCUSD price chart for 09\/02\/2022 - TradingView\" width=\"460\" height=\"256\"><\/p>\n<pre style=\"text-align: center\">BTC price chart for 09\/02\/2022 on Cexio | Source: BTC\/USD on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSD\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">TradingView.com<\/a><\/pre>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The Ethereum Merge Is Upon Us<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">For this section, The Wolf Den used data from IntoTheBlock. Before getting into it, the author clarified the sequence of events that compose the mythical \u201cmerge\u201d. First of all, on September 6th, \u201cthe Bellatrix upgrade happens on the Beacon chain\u201d. Then, between September 10th and 20th, \u201cthe official transition from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) will occur\u201d. The Ethereum Foundation estimates that the merge will happen on September 15th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">To evaluate the Ethereum network\u2019s state during this bear market, The Wolf Den looked into \u201cnetflows onto centralized exchanges\u201d. Overall, more ETH is leaving the exchanges than entering, which is bullish. It tends to mean people are not looking to sell their assets. However, with the merge looming and the bear market among us, it could have other meanings.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">On the one hand, people might be \u201cbullish on the merge as users believe that the merge will happen successfully and are loading up on ETH for potential price action.\u201d On the other, they might be anticipating the possible <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinist.com\/ethpow-fork-poses-existential-threat-to-ethereum\/\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">ETH Proof-Of-Work hard fork<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. If that happens, \u201call ETH being held in wallets can claim ETHW at a 1:1 ratio, traders might be preparing themselves to claim the most ETHW possible.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\" style=\"text-align: center\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/news\/ethereum\/this-indicator-predicts-probable-bearish-trend-ahead-for-ethereum\/\"> This Indicator Predicts Probable Bearish Trend Ahead For Ethereum<\/a><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Another curiosity about the bear market\u2019s current state is this. Lately \u201cthe average inflow transaction size is generally larger than its outflow counterpart\u201d. According to The Wolf Den, that\u2019s not a problem because \u201cnetflows onto centralized exchanges\u201d are low. And that\u2019s a stronger indicator. However, those large inflow transactions might suggest something that makes sense. &#8220;Larger traders and institutional investors are more skeptical about the success of the merge\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In any case, long-time bitcoin and ethereum holders show unwavering conviction despite the bear market\u2019s conditions. For different reasons altogether.<\/span><\/p>\n<pre style=\"text-align: center\">Featured Image by <a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/users\/congerdesign-509903\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=562960\" rel=\"nofollow\">congerdesign<\/a> from <a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=562960\" rel=\"nofollow\">Pixabay<\/a> | Charts by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is the weirdest bear market to date. It seems like most people were prepared for it, even though the death spirals and Chapter 11 bankruptcies that started it came out of nowhere. In any case, every coin is in the red. The market should be in a state of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. That is certainly not the case for the two leading cryptocurrencies. The circumstances might be different for each one, but both markets show signs of unwavering conviction.\u00a0 Related Reading: 62% Of Addresses Keep Their Bitcoin Holdings For Over A Year In Bear Long-time holders of bitcoin and ethereum seem to be laughing in the bear market \u2019s face. In the latest edition of The Wolf Den, the author uses Glassnode and Intotheblock\u2019s data to show us how this is true.\u00a0 The Bear Market Vs. Bitcoin \u201cOn-chain evidence from Glassnode suggests that there has been no meaningful reduction in the conviction of long term believers,\u201d the newsletter states. To prove this, The Wolf Den looks at the \u201cDormancy Metric.\u201d The number that \u201ctracks the average age of every Bitcoin that moves, determined by when it was mined. One of the ways to gauge the sentiment of long-term holders is to asses the average age of coins moving around the market.\u201d As attentive readers might suspect, the coins that are \u201cmoving around the market\u201d are extremely young. In fact, their age \u201cis at multi-year lows. The dormancy value is very low.\u201d This is consistent with previous bear markets, in which dormancy values tend to be low. The newsletter quotes analysis from Glassnode: \u201cThe decline in lifespan metrics actually bodes well for the longer-term, as it indicates old coins are stationary, and declining prices have little psychological impact on this cohort\u2019s conviction.\u201d So, everything looks where it\u2019s supposed to be if we focus on the big picture. A healthy habit during bear markets. BTC price chart for 09\/02\/2022 on Cexio | Source: BTC\/USD on TradingView.com The Ethereum Merge Is Upon Us For this section, The Wolf Den used data from IntoTheBlock. Before getting into it, the author clarified the sequence of events that compose the mythical \u201cmerge\u201d. First of all, on September 6th, \u201cthe Bellatrix upgrade happens on the Beacon chain\u201d. Then, between September 10th and 20th, \u201cthe official transition from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) will occur\u201d. The Ethereum Foundation estimates that the merge will happen on September 15th.\u00a0 To evaluate the Ethereum network\u2019s state during this bear market, The Wolf Den looked into \u201cnetflows onto centralized exchanges\u201d. Overall, more ETH is leaving the exchanges than entering, which is bullish. It tends to mean people are not looking to sell their assets. However, with the merge looming and the bear market among us, it could have other meanings.\u00a0 On the one hand, people might be \u201cbullish on the merge as users believe that the merge will happen successfully and are loading up on ETH for potential price action.\u201d On the other, they might be anticipating the possible ETH Proof-Of-Work hard fork. If that happens, \u201call ETH being held in wallets can claim ETHW at a 1:1 ratio, traders might be preparing themselves to claim the most ETHW possible.\u201d Related Reading: This Indicator Predicts Probable Bearish Trend Ahead For Ethereum Another curiosity about the bear market\u2019s current state is this. Lately \u201cthe average inflow transaction size is generally larger than its outflow counterpart\u201d. According to The Wolf Den, that\u2019s not a problem because \u201cnetflows onto centralized exchanges\u201d are low. And that\u2019s a stronger indicator. However, those large inflow transactions might suggest something that makes sense. &#8220;Larger traders and institutional investors are more skeptical about the success of the merge\u201d. In any case, long-time bitcoin and ethereum holders show unwavering conviction despite the bear market\u2019s conditions. For different reasons altogether. Featured Image by congerdesign from Pixabay | Charts by TradingView<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":539,"featured_media":500856,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5651,3,13625],"tags":[5687,86751,1119,1144,86745,86750,86748,8323,85736,61309,86749,86752,79112,86747,3477,3484,3537,3538,84832,86753,86746],"class_list":["post-500855","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-news","category-ethereum","tag-bear-market","tag-bear-market-analysis","tag-btc","tag-btcusd","tag-chapter-11-bankruptcies","tag-current-state-of-the-bear-market","tag-dormancy-metric","tag-eth","tag-ethereum-merge","tag-glassnode","tag-glassnoded","tag-how-to-navigate-the-bear-market","tag-intotheblock","tag-netflows-onto-centralized-exchanges","tag-pos","tag-pow","tag-proof-of-stake","tag-proof-of-work","tag-the-merge","tag-the-mythical-merge","tag-the-wolf-den"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>Bear Market Who? 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